Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

Thrugelmir

beecher2 wrote: »

As you say, a lot comes down to how 'hard' Brexit is, and also how much Scotland is listened to.

There's little economic benefit in Scexit though. As it'll be hard without any doubt.

stator

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's little economic benefit in Scexit though. As it'll be hard without any doubt.

Please dear god no. Let's not use that word

beecher2

stator wrote: »

Please dear god no. Let's not use that word

Am fairly confident 'Scexit' will not become a thing! Wonder if it will be Leave and Remain again - looks more likely than a rerun of Yes or No.

westernpromise

I prefer the term "Oot!" myself. And post oot Scotland will be respelled "Scawtlun" and its new currency will be called the Poond, trading at 10,000 to the £.

mollycat

beecher2 wrote: »

Maybe the people you talk to are like minded. The vast majority of people I talk politics with are independence supporters, think it is natural to talk most about things you're interested about with people who share the same sort of view.

With respect, I don't think AMSJ was referring to chatting to his mates

Like me he's probably meaning at work, in the pub, at the football, general day to day interactions.....there is no where near the desire for independence, levels of grudge, disatisfaction with brexit that the small amount of people that post on these forums would have us believe.

It's an attempt to keep a (poor) idea that's had its day alive when most people in Scotland, (except forthose in the ever decreasing nationalist enclaves), would rather see the back of.

IMO, of course.

zagubov

My impression. It probably won't be independent in that time scale. It'll be a heck of a lot further down that path though.

I'm just waiting for the usual boring know-it-alls who'll try to claim that Scotland's new currency will have to be the raindrop - but as Scotland is famously totally arid and rainless, it'll be bankrupt.

mollycat

zagubov wrote: »

My impression. It probably won't be independent in that time scale. It'll be a heck of a lot further down that path though.

I'm just waiting for the usual boring know-it-alls who'll try to claim that Scotland's new currency will have to be the raindrop - but as Scotland is famously totally arid and rainless, it'll be bankrupt.

Come up and check the weather here sometime.....

You might also observe the hash the devolved "government" are making of things, always harder to tell from far away.

TrickyTree83

zagubov wrote: »

My impression. It probably won't be independent in that time scale. It'll be a heck of a lot further down that path though.

I'm just waiting for the usual boring know-it-alls who'll try to claim that Scotland's new currency will have to be the raindrop - but as Scotland is famously totally arid and rainless, it'll be bankrupt.

Unless you have Greek style cuts (if not worse) to the public sector finances then yes, iScotland would be bankrupt very quickly attempting to prop up a £15bn deficit along with all the additional debt commitments (incl. pensions) you will be required to take on from rUK.

There's no way around the economics of it, which is why that 'conversation' no longer appears on the Scotland thread, in an economics forum. Makes me laugh. It's now descended into an anti-Conservative agenda farce, as if that's a good enough reason to impoverish yourselves and future generations.

Then there's the jobs, the SNP and the indy support falling over themselves to spit furious words over ~80,000 job losses which are tied to the EU (if the reports are to be believed), against 1,000,000 job losses if Scotland leaves the UK (if the reports are to be believed). And of course there's Scotland's trade, 64% of it with the rUK and 11% of it with the EU, without mentioning the 'Border Effect' which will see an alleged 5.5% GDP drop for iScotland, at a time when you'll be borrowing eye watering amounts (compared to the size of your economy). Which will only increase your deficit further than the £15bn.

Not forgetting the cost of setting up all of your own institutions, embassies, governmental departments, central bank (unless you're going to join the Euro? :rotfl:), etc... But assets you say, you own 8% of everything in the UK you say, well doesn't that mean that rUK owns 92% of everything in the UK? You're going to have to pay us for the assets we own in iScotland.

I've just skimmed over some headlines from the iScotland thread to give people an insight into the disaster that the independence support put forward as 'the ultimate solution'. It is the above that you and others want people to vote for to ensure they don't get a Conservative government, if the latest from our resident SNP liaison about the tone and agenda of the upcoming independence campaign is to be believed. And all of that is if Holyrood is granted the ability to even hold another referendum during Brexit negotiations.

Pigs might fly springs to mind.

Thrugelmir

zagubov wrote: »

I'm just waiting for the usual boring know-it-alls who'll try to claim that Scotland's new currency will have to be the raindrop - but as Scotland is famously totally arid and rainless, it'll be bankrupt.

That's why the vote is the easy part. As the hurdles are even bigger than those faced by the UK over the next 5 years.

MacMickster

stator wrote: »

Please dear god no. Let's not use that word

How about Joxit?