Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

Rinoa

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Odds are shifting over at the bookies. They seem to think it'll be a Yes in a second referendum.

Next Independence Referendum held before end 2020 6/5

Scotland to vote NO to Independence before end 2020 11/4

Scotland to vote YES to Independence before end 2020 3/1

No Independence Referendum held before end 2020 4/6

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/scottish/scottish-referendum/next-scottish-independence-referendum/221109144/

ps nice try beecher but is never long before threads like these turn into the usual rants about SNP cults, oil and how Scotland would be the only country in the world without a currency.

I wouldn't get too excited about Bookies expertise in predicting the future.

Leicester were 5000/1 to win the Premier League back in August 2015.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Odds are shifting over at the bookies. They seem to think it'll be a Yes in a second referendum.

Next Independence Referendum held before end 2020 6/5

Scotland to vote NO to Independence before end 2020 11/4

Scotland to vote YES to Independence before end 2020 3/1

No Independence Referendum held before end 2020 4/6

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/scottish/scottish-referendum/next-scottish-independence-referendum/221109144/

ps nice try beecher but is never long before threads like these turn into the usual rants about SNP cults, oil and how Scotland would be the only country in the world without a currency.

This post makes me understand why you believe what you do, thanks for sharing :rotfl:

Edit: spot the error!

Edit 2: note that those who thank that post have also missed the obvious. I guess Ladbrokes ought to stick an F on there to make it quite clear.

Shakethedisease

Rinoa wrote: »

I wouldn't get too excited about Bookies expertise in predicting the future.

Leicester were 5000/1 to win the Premier League back in August 2015.

I wasn't replying to you nor to Tricky, but to the OP and the topic question. That some bookies have shifted their odds in the last few days like above is relevant, on topic and is information that is useful to the thread.

What I personally think about bookies odds ( nothing much ) isn't.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wasn't replying to you nor to Tricky, but to the OP and the topic question. That some bookies have shifted their odds in the last few days like above is relevant, on topic and is information that is useful to the thread.

What I personally think about bookies odds ( nothing much ) isn't.

According to your post what is the most likely outcome according to Ladbrokes?

If a referendum occurs what is the most likely outcome according to Ladbrokes?

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wasn't replying to you nor to Tricky, but to the OP and the topic question. That some bookies have shifted their odds in the last few days like above is relevant, on topic and is information that is useful to the thread.

What I personally think about bookies odds ( nothing much ) isn't.

Bookies run books on the money being wagered. Not idle speculation. Wouldn't take much to move the odds.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bookies run books on the money being wagered. Not idle speculation. Wouldn't take much to move the odds.

I know fine well what bookies do thank you. However beecher and I were both posters on a large Scottish thread in the lead up to Sept 2014. There was lots of fuss made of bookies odds and lots of Ladbrokes posts back then from those on the other side of the debate.

I doubt either of us ever saw the day odds would swing even vaguely the other way in comparison to then. I thought beecher the OP would enjoy the post with a rueful laugh. Like I did.

Fella

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Odds are shifting over at the bookies. They seem to think it'll be a Yes in a second referendum.


Scotland to vote YES to Independence before end 2020 3/1

If Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 it means they think there is much less than a 25% chance of it happening (if they offer 3/1 they think the true price is bigger than 3/1).

So as it stands they emphatically think it would be No in a second referendum.

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Odds are shifting over at the bookies. They seem to think it'll be a Yes in a second referendum.

Next Independence Referendum held before end 2020 6/5

Scotland to vote NO to Independence before end 2020 11/4

Scotland to vote YES to Independence before end 2020 3/1

No Independence Referendum held before end 2020 4/6

Yep, as the poster Fella says above ^^^ not good news for Indy supporters; 6/5 is actually quite big in a two horse race

3/1 in a two horse race is massive!!

I think we can add bookmakers, odds and probability to the numerous subjects this poster has a limited grasp on :rotfl:

antrobus

beecher2 wrote: »

Regardless of your views on Scottish independence (everyone on the Scotland thread has entrenched views, and no-one is changing anyone else's mind on this), do you think it will happen in the next 5 years or so?

Will Scotland become independent?

Depends entirely on what Scottish voters want.

Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

Possible, but unlikely. Firstly, because the UK is currently preoccupied with the process of becoming 'independent' of the EU, and will be for at least the next two years. Any 'referendum' that the Scottish Parliament might manage to hold will have no legal standing, and thus will be ignored (no matter how upset it makes the SNP etc). Nothing will happen until Brexit has been completed, supposedly March 2019.

Secondly, it would take a lot longer than two years to negotiate the terms of Scottish independence. That's my guess anyway; I would anticipate a long argument over sharing the national debt (£1.5 trn), and pension liabilities (another £1.5 trn) as well as everything else. Untangling a 300 year old political and economic union will take some time.

Thirdly, Scotland would need time (and money) to establish the infrastructure needed to operate as an independent state. It would need a currency, a central bank, a payments system, etc and so forth, none of which happens overnight.

Ten years minimum.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years? We in rUK can only hope so.

Well, the rUK would be better off by £8 bn or so a year; there would be no more subsidy. There is that to look forward to.