Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

beecher2

Regardless of your views on Scottish independence (everyone on the Scotland thread has entrenched views, and no-one is changing anyone else's mind on this), do you think it will happen in the next 5 years or so?

TrickyTree83

Presuming a 2nd independence referendum even comes to fruition, it will fail anyway and be consigned to history for the next 25+ years.

Those on the Scotland thread who are for independence offer no argument against the facts. They believe once they start campaigning they will push over the 50% barrier, the arguments didn't work in 2014 and they're worse now.

michaels

Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years? We in rUK can only hope so.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Presuming a 2nd independence referendum even comes to fruition, it will fail anyway and be consigned to history for the next 25+ years.
.

Don't know how you can be so definite with the polls running at 49%. A future campaign will be very different for various reasons - lead to S Conservatives and Scotland in Union, fragmented Labour party, uncertaintly over Brexit makes many knowns unknowns. Many commentators are shifting opinion, think the shift in Mike Dailly's position is quite too telling regarding what many on the left feel. Know of a lot of disenfranchised Labour supporters who would struggle to get behind what looks like being quite a strident right wing campaign.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Those on the Scotland thread who are for independence offer no argument against the facts. They believe once they start campaigning they will push over the 50% barrier, the arguments didn't work in 2014 and they're worse now.

Can I make a general plea to keep the arguments for and against out of this thread - just wanting people's opinion on what the Scottish electorate will do, not what individuals feel they should do.

mrginge

Tough one.

Five years is possible.
There's time to investigate options and build a case, we'll know where Brexit has led us, probably have another Tory GE victory.

I can see it, but then I can equally see Labour / Lib dems getting some credibility back by then and I am pretty damn sure that the scaremongering of Brexit will be replaced with a sensible trading arrangement that blows a lot of the current independence argument out of the water.

Think I'll have to go for a marginal No.

If it was two years I would say not a chance.

Torry_Quine

On balance I don't think Scotland will become independent. It's very close though

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Don't know how you can be so definite with the polls running at 49%. A future campaign will be very different for various reasons - lead to S Conservatives and Scotland in Union, fragmented Labour party, uncertaintly over Brexit makes many knowns unknowns. Many commentators are shifting opinion, think the shift in Mike Dailly's position is quite too telling regarding what many on the left feel. Know of a lot of disenfranchised Labour supporters who would struggle to get behind what looks like being quite a strident right wing campaign.

Amazingly (well not if you post on the Scotland thread), none of that is an argument for independence.

The polls have been higher than 49% before, and then dropped down consistently.

Because the arguments don't stack up there's now a thought to campaign for independence on an anti-Conservative agenda. Ignoring the issues of independence entirely, the Scottish people will not believe the distraction and will want answers, and just as in 2014 those answers will not live up to scrutiny. It's pretty bad form to go for years without coming up with answers to questions you failed to address in 2014.

I genuinely believe you'll end up with lower than the 45% you got in 2014. The independence campaign and the SNP treat Scots like they are idiots, when the lies are exposed both groups just move on to the next flavour of the month rather than correct their mistakes.

beecher2

mrginge wrote: »

Tough one.

Five years is possible.
There's time to investigate options and build a case, we'll know where Brexit has led us, probably have another Tory GE victory.

I can see it, but then I can equally see Labour / Lib dems getting some credibility back by then and I am pretty damn sure that the scaremongering of Brexit will be replaced with a sensible trading arrangement that blows a lot of the current independence argument out of the water.

Think I'll have to go for a marginal No.

If it was two years I would say not a chance.

I'm pretty confident Labour are dead in Scotland, I just can't see a way forward for them at all. Ironically independence would perhaps be their saviour, just as devolution helped increase Scottish Conservative representation.

As you say, a lot comes down to how 'hard' Brexit is, and also how much Scotland is listened to.

Think much comes down to emotion rather than 'facts', which are often just conjecture when talking about the future.

Do think polls would have to be nearer 60% as there's always going to be a fall back to 'safety' (if there is such a thing)

davomcdave

beecher2 wrote: »

Don't know how you can be so definite with the polls running at 49%. A future campaign will be very different for various reasons - lead to S Conservatives and Scotland in Union, fragmented Labour party, uncertaintly over Brexit makes many knowns unknowns. Many commentators are shifting opinion, think the shift in Mike Dailly's position is quite too telling regarding what many on the left feel. Know of a lot of disenfranchised Labour supporters who would struggle to get behind what looks like being quite a strident right wing campaign.

Are they really? Is there actually anyone in Scotland that hasn't made up their mind after years and years of campaigning on Scexit?

49% sounds a lot like it's within the polling margin of error of the 45% Yes got at the last referendum.

cogito

If they were to vote for independence, who would they blame in future for all their problems?