Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

annandale

Support for yes was at 20 per cent before the last campaign. This is 49 per cent before a campaign has started.

I think Scotland will be independent before too long

Hopefully by 2020

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Within five years?
Very, very small possibility of independence in that timeframe IMHO.
I would love to know how that poll came to 49% BTW , because that is absolutely nothing like I am hearing on the streets.
In various places north of the border too, mind.

Look, us Scots really are more canny than many give us credit for; don't believe all the blether from a few desperate anti-unionists.
Most of us know only too well which side our bread is buttered on.

TBH I would love to see an independent Scotland.
More accurately I would love to see Scotland in a position whereby we could realistically become independent without endangering so much of what we already have.
Which means IMHO a change of Scottish government because (let's be quite honest here) the SNP have NEVER been anything more than an "independence at ANY cost" party who will (and have) lie, cheat and scheme to achieve that objective regardless of cost to Scots themselves.

So give the dust from Brexit time to settle; give the SNP more opportunity to show how inept they really are; give us the chance to reform politically and it is possible.
But it will take more than five years.

stator

No. With Britain being outside the EU Single Market, Scotland won't be able to survive outside the UK Single Market.
Scotland<->rUK trade is far greater than any trade Scotland<->rEU
Many companies operating across the UK would be faced with a major headache if trade barriers went up in just Scotland.

TrickyTree83

stator wrote: »

No. With Britain being outside the EU Single Market, Scotland won't be able to survive outside the UK Single Market.
Scotland<->rUK trade is far greater than any trade Scotland<->rEU
Many companies operating across the UK would be faced with a major headache if trade barriers went up in just Scotland.

Not just that, even if there was a reasonable trade deal between the UK and the EU, the mere presence of a border has an effect on trade.

https://www.princeton.edu/~erossi/courses_files/border1103.pdf

Pro-independence protagonists will tell you that if there's a good deal between the UK and the EU that it strengthens the case for iScotland, because they conveniently ignore evidence which doesn't conform to legitimising their end goal.

Edit: I understand the above might be slightly heavy reading.

Here's someone from LSE to explain it: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-border-effect-and-scottish-independence/

Edit 2: And this government paper: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/274477/scotland_analysis_borders_citizenship.pdf

mollycat

beecher2 wrote: »

Regardless of your views on Scottish independence (everyone on the Scotland thread has entrenched views, and no-one is changing anyone else's mind on this), do you think it will happen in the next 5 years or so?

5.22pm

81.4% No

18.6% Yes.

Funny how these propaganda threads backfire!

mayonnaise

mollycat wrote: »

5.22pm

81.4% No

18.6% Yes.

Funny how these propaganda threads backfire!

I'm surprised 'Yes' even gets 18% on a forum swamped by alt-right brexiteers.

westernpromise

Difficult to be independent when you don't have a currency, which you won't. You were told this very clearly in 2014 and it should be obvious from recent history why no UK government is going to join any currency union with anyone.

It will never happen, regrettably. I'd enjoy the tax reduction from not subbing Scotland, but it'll never happen given that Scotland is basically insolvent.

mollycat

mayonnaise wrote: »

I'm surprised 'Yes' even gets 18% on a forum swamped by alt-right brexiteers.

I voted Remain buddy

beecher2

mollycat wrote: »

5.22pm

81.4% No

18.6% Yes.

Funny how these propaganda threads backfire!

Not my intent at all. Genuinely interested in hearing what people think will happen, regardless of whether they think it should happen or not.

beecher2

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I would love to know how that poll came to 49% BTW , because that is absolutely nothing like I am hearing on the streets.
.

Maybe the people you talk to are like minded. The vast majority of people I talk politics with are independence supporters, think it is natural to talk most about things you're interested about with people who share the same sort of view.