Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

HornetSaver

I would expect a second referendum to take place in 2022, based on a Holyrood election in 2021. If it succeeded I'd expect independence to actually happen in 2024.

I've consistently said that a referendum sooner than that is likely to fail, because the entire premise of calling a second one is that Brexit will be bad for Scotland and that the Irish border will be the acid test of what sort of form a future border with England can reasonably be expected to look like. If the SNP are right about Brexit's effects on Scotland, then waiting for fears to become reality will help their cause.

Indeed even if they're wrong about Brexit, then I think two Holyrood elections is the absolute minimum amount of time for being able to put enough distance between the 2014 result and arguments to reasonably hope that the result might change.

westernpromise

HornetSaver wrote: »

I would expect a second referendum to take place in 2022, based on a Holyrood election in 2021. If it succeeded I'd expect independence to actually happen in 2024.

What's the answer to the question the SNP could not provide in 2014 - the one of what Scotland will use for money given that it will not be allowed to use the pound and will not qualify to use the euro, even if the EU wanted another Greece in the EU?

Has the SNP thought up an answer to that one yet?

More generally, why is union with the EU essential, but union with the UK not?

HornetSaver

westernpromise wrote: »

What's the answer to the question the SNP could not provide in 2014 - the one of what Scotland will use for money given that it will not be allowed to use the pound and will not qualify to use the euro, even if the EU wanted another Greece in the EU?

Has the SNP thought up an answer to that one yet?

More generally, why is union with the EU essential, but union with the UK not?

If they threaten to stop the export of Scotch, the political establishment will give them everything they want.

And Doncaster.

(I'm with you on the arguments, I've never questioned that Scotland is sufficiently different from rUK for independence to be a reasonable question to ask, but the case never seemed to stack up).

davomcdave

Unless the British economy really goes down the gurgler as a result of Brexit there is no way that Scexit will happen. The Scottish fiscal position is horrible and getting worse. The oil industry is now winding down and the net fiscal (tax) position of the Scottish oil industry is now negative as the tax relief on decommissioning rigs is greater than the remaining licencing fees to be paid. Even if the oil price was to go back to $100+ Scotland isn't fiscally viable.

Given the length of time it takes to resolve big structural problems like those faced by Scotland I'd be highly surprised to see Scottish independence in my lifetime unless London and the South East get fed up with the billions of pounds in subsidies that head north and cut the money off.

ProDave

HornetSaver wrote: »

I would expect a second referendum to take place in 2022, based on a Holyrood election in 2021. If it succeeded I'd expect independence to actually happen in 2024.

I've consistently said that a referendum sooner than that is likely to fail, because the entire premise of calling a second one is that Brexit will be bad for Scotland and that the Irish border will be the acid test of what sort of form a future border with England can reasonably be expected to look like. If the SNP are right about Brexit's effects on Scotland, then waiting for fears to become reality will help their cause.

Indeed even if they're wrong about Brexit, then I think two Holyrood elections is the absolute minimum amount of time for being able to put enough distance between the 2014 result and arguments to reasonably hope that the result might change.

I am hoping that by the next Holyrood election, there will have been an even bigger encreasr for the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP will be an even smaller minority government.

At the moment, they would just scrape support for another referendum with help from the Greens. but it could be very different by the next time.

the big "change" is Holyrood has new powers but the SNP seems afraid to use them in any meaningful way. So come the next election, nobody will be able to blame "Westminster" for all our issues, the blame will sit fairly and squarly with the SNP and I think the electorate will realise they are so obsessed with wanting to break up the union and taking their eye off the day job of running the country. After all if they can't properly run a devolved administration, what hoe is there for them making a success of an independent country?

Shakethedisease

ProDave wrote: »

I am hoping that by the next Holyrood election, there will have been an even bigger encreasr for the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP will be an even smaller minority government.

At the moment, they would just scrape support for another referendum with help from the Greens. but it could be very different by the next time.

the big "change" is Holyrood has new powers but the SNP seems afraid to use them in any meaningful way. So come the next election, nobody will be able to blame "Westminster" for all our issues, the blame will sit fairly and squarly with the SNP and I think the electorate will realise they are so obsessed with wanting to break up the union and taking their eye off the day job of running the country. After all if they can't properly run a devolved administration, what hoe is there for them making a success of an independent country?

Any referendum/vote will happen before Scotland is taken out of the Single Market. Both the SNP and the Greens have been completely consistent on this it's why legislation for a second vote is going through Holyrood now. The SNP and the Greens will call it too given the above. Nothing to lose what with being out of the EU/Single Market anyway if they do nothing.

Zxcv_Bnm

The SNP's best bet is to get England included in the referendum. They'll then be expelled from the union.

And we still don't know what you'll use for money. Not the £, not the Euro. So, what?

Shakethedisease

See here :-

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72084361&postcount=10

Moto2

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Any referendum/vote will happen before Scotland is taken out of the Single Market. Both the SNP and the Greens have been completely consistent on this it's why legislation for a second vote is going through Holyrood now. The SNP and the Greens will call it too given the above. Nothing to lose what with being out of the EU/Single Market anyway if they do nothing.

Will the SNP and the Greens be paying for it?

westernpromise

So still no idea what the currency will be then.

Glad we cleared that up.