Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

mrginge

beecher2 wrote: »

I'm pretty confident Labour are dead in Scotland, I just can't see a way forward for them at all. Ironically independence would perhaps be their saviour, just as devolution helped increase Scottish Conservative representation.

Current labour are probably dead everywhere. But they will regroup and the lib dems will improve too. I think people will see that as the way to get Scotland engaged in Westminster rather than continue to believe the SNP's divisive non-representation rubbish.

As you say, a lot comes down to how 'hard' Brexit is, and also how much Scotland is listened to.

Think much comes down to emotion rather than 'facts', which are often just conjecture when talking about the future.

Emotion will get you so far.
Emotion got Brexit over the line but we've seen it not manage the same in Scotland. I think only serious credible plans will push the extra %.

Do think polls would have to be nearer 60% as there's always going to be a fall back to 'safety' (if there is such a thing)

If the polls get to 60% before any campaign starts then it's done and dusted.
Getting excited about one poll showing 49% is desperate IMO.

beecher2

davomcdave wrote: »

Are they really? Is there actually anyone in Scotland that hasn't made up their mind after years and years of campaigning on Scexit?

49% sounds a lot like it's within the polling margin of error of the 45% Yes got at the last referendum.

Yeah, read the Record, or Alex Massie (not saying he is Yes but there's a shift). Read Mike Dailly's agenda piece too.

We're in a different world from 2014, so of course the argument will be different.
BTW, Scexit is not going to take off I don't think

beecher2

mrginge wrote: »

Current labour are probably dead everywhere. But they will regroup and the lib dems will improve too. I think people will see that as the way to get Scotland engaged in Westminster rather than continue to believe the SNP's divisive non-representation rubbish.
.

I don't know how much you know about Scottish Labour, or the depths of despair in local groups at the moment. See absolutely no evidence of anyone who has shifted from labour to snp returning. 'divisive non-representation rubbish' isn't how many of the 49% see the SNP and I'm keen to keep this thread separate from the other one - as I say, it isn't about why you think we should do, but what you think we will do. Hard when there's not much real commentary in the media.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

I don't know how much you know about Scottish Labour, or the depths of despair in local groups at the moment. See absolutely no evidence of anyone who has shifted from labour to snp returning. 'divisive non-representation rubbish' isn't how many of the 49% see the SNP and I'm keen to keep this thread separate from the other one - as I say, it isn't about why you think we should do, but what you think we will do. Hard when there's not much real commentary in the media.

That's misleading to quote it as "the 49%" on the back of this one poll.

wotsthat

beecher2 wrote: »

Regardless of your views on Scottish independence (everyone on the Scotland thread has entrenched views, and no-one is changing anyone else's mind on this), do you think it will happen in the next 5 years or so?

Only if the polls have support at around 60% or 40% will there even be a referendum. i.e. if the SNP think they can win or if there's a last desperate throw of the dice.

If the SNP's arguments can't gain traction when there's a rise in nationalism, we're in the tail end of a financial crisis and the UK are 'forcing' Scotland out of the EU then it seems like it's not going to happen.

On the other thread there's been daily evidence of the SNP winning the argument yet the polls are unmoved. Either the polls are wrong or, and this is where my money is, the argument isn't being won.

mrginge

beecher2 wrote: »

I don't know how much you know about Scottish Labour, or the depths of despair in local groups at the moment. See absolutely no evidence of anyone who has shifted from labour to snp returning. 'divisive non-representation rubbish' isn't how many of the 49% see the SNP and I'm keen to keep this thread separate from the other one - as I say, it isn't about why you think we should do, but what you think we will do. Hard when there's not much real commentary in the media.

Politics is cyclical. People who think where we are today is where we'll be in five years usually end up getting a shock.
Ten years ago the SNP were nothing, labour was in govt led by a Scotsman.
SNP bluster about the neglect of Scotland by an English-obsessed Westminster is nothing more than short-term opportunism.

beecher2

Indeed, 5 years is a long time in politics - none of us really know what will happen. I don't even think Kezia thinks Scottish Labour will be in contention though.

BTW, 10 years ago the SNP were in government in Scotland, their honeymoon still isn't over. 47% for Westminster voting intentions according to a poll today.

westernpromise

What I find laughable is the SNP's idea that leaving the EU is such a disaster Scotland must now leave the UK.

mollycat

davomcdave wrote: »

Are they really? Is there actually anyone in Scotland that hasn't made up their mind after years and years of campaigning on Scexit?

49% sounds a lot like it's within the polling margin of error of the 45% Yes got at the last referendum.

No, it's just spin.

You can get page after page of it over on the scotland thread if you are so inclined.

5 years, 10, 20....it will always be NO; were not stupid

LHW99

The EU didn't seem too keen to confirm that Scotland would be admitted to the club when Brexit was voted for, I can see them even less happy if Scotland became independent from a UK that had already left.
Whatever the feelings about Westminster, I think the Scots are too canny not to see that so I don't think there would be a majority for independence in the forseeable future (maybe up to 10 years)