Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

Every election causes a political divide.

On this scale?

Denying the the people a say in their future causes a divide

Remember that essentially half of voters wanted to remain. You seem happy to deny them a say in their future.

The IMF genuinely thought that the Uk would have a double dip recession.

We still might.

Whats you prediction?

If we don't get single market access:
We'll take a fairly major hit in GDP (maybe 5%), become more split and insular, paradoxically struggle to get both skilled staff, and to find jobs, and the cost of living will go up by a fair amount (maybe 10%) due mainly the devaluation of the £ and the increased cost of trading with the EU.

If we do get single market access:
Lots of remainers will scream in outrage about their future being denied, the £ will start to climb and we'll largely be back where we started after about 5 years, having wasted billions to achieve pretty much nothing.

What's your prediction?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Remember that essentially half of voters wanted to remain. You seem happy to deny them a say in their future.

Everyone has a say in the future via democratic process : this ALWAYS means some people are disappointed. I can't think of a way of making everyone happy : do you have the magic bullet to do that?

We still might.

indeed so, but leaving the EU will make it less likely.

If we don't get single market access:
We'll take a fairly major hit in GDP (maybe 5%), become more split and insular, paradoxically struggle to get both skilled staff, and to find jobs, and the cost of living will go up by a fair amount (maybe 10%) due mainly the devaluation of the £ and the increased cost of trading with the EU.

made up junk numbers :

what EXACTLY is insular about trading with all the peoples of the world rather than giving privileged access to people from white, christian european countries?
Your jobs paradox makes no sense.

If we do get single market access:
Lots of remainers will scream in outrage about their future being denied, the £ will start to climb and we'll largely be back where we started after about 5 years, having wasted billions to achieve pretty much nothing.

you clearly do not understand what single market access actually means

Herzlos

You do realise you asked me for a prediction, and then attacked that prediction for being made up, right? You do know what a prediction *is*?

I fully appreciate that you think leaving the EU will make a recession less likely. However, I don't agree, and neither do pretty much all business owners, experts and even some Leave advocates. I admire you optimism, but I just can't connect the dots there.

I mean, even as an isolated WTO state, we're still at major risk of recession of the central EU banks go under, because of the close ties we have with them and with European money and Europe in general. Then there's the fact their our biggest trading partner. If the EU goes into a full blown recession we can only be dragged down with it. Of course, now we have no say in the EU, so if it does lurch that way we can do absolutely nothing about it.

Maybe within about 50 years we'll do a North Korea and completely isolate ourselves, but until that point we're somewhat sensitive to the economies of our neighbours.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

You do realise you asked me for a prediction, and then attacked that prediction for being made up, right? You do know what a prediction *is*?

I fully appreciate that you think leaving the EU will make a recession less likely. However, I don't agree, and neither do pretty much all business owners, experts and even some Leave advocates. I admire you optimism, but I just can't connect the dots there.

I mean, even as an isolated WTO state, we're still at major risk of recession of the central EU banks go under, because of the close ties we have with them and with European money and Europe in general. Then there's the fact their our biggest trading partner. If the EU goes into a full blown recession we can only be dragged down with it. Of course, now we have no say in the EU, so if it does lurch that way we can do absolutely nothing about it.

Maybe within about 50 years we'll do a North Korea and completely isolate ourselves, but until that point we're somewhat sensitive to the economies of our neighbours.

-so no suggestions for better democracy

-trading with the whole world can't reasonably be compared with North Korea :
with 15% of our export going to USA, 6% to China and we are the 9th exporting country in the world.


-I agree that the EU is a real economic threat to the UK although I don't expect the EU to go into recession over the next 2-3 years.
The real crisis in the EU is the euro for which we have had absolutely no control of whatsoever so no change when we leave the EU.
In any event, we don't trade with the EU as some homogeneous block but with individual countries, each with their own economic characteristics

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

On this scale?


If we don't get single market access:

If we do get single market access:

The whole world sells into the European market.


As for tariff free access, Canada worth 10 times less and not aligned to EU rules is getting virtually free access. S Korea enjoys good terms and sells us mountains of kit, again nothing like as important a player as the UK

We are infinitely more important to Europe in many areas such as intelligence and security.

mystic_trev

padington wrote: »

I predict this country will be a much sh*tter place because of Brexit and the sh*ttyness has already started happening and will only get worse, quickly.

I expect you take that view having spent too much time in Wood Green.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=wood%20green

[Deleted User]

Herzlos wrote: »

Remember that essentially half of voters wanted to remain.

The Referendum was a dead heat :huh:

CKhalvashi

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

The Referendum was a dead heat :huh:

It was incredibly close.

Hence what I said about the country being more divided than ever.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

It was incredibly close.

Hence what I said about the country being more divided than ever.

IMHO you're wrong about the country being so divided.
More attention BY FAR is given in these forums and similar places than anywhere else.
In fact it looks like many don't really care, now that a decision has been made.
Consumer spending would back up that assertion since - if people WERE really so concerned - they certainly would not be spending at the current rate, preferring instead to have reserves in preperation for the doom we are told we WILL get.

Also, 1.2 million people doesn't necessarily make it "close" - or do you also think then that over 3.5% inflation would equally be so "close" to zero as to mean little?

Because that's what those 1.2 million voters represent; over 3.5% of all those that voted.

Tammer

I think change in the EU could have brought greater prosperity to the UK than Brexit (and would probably be good for Italy, Spain, Greece etc). The EU were unwilling to change however, as David Cameron found to his personal embarrassment.

Having said that, I sometimes wonder how we could have voted for Brexit. I then watch Gogglebox and tell myself that i'm watching typical Britons and suddenly it all makes sense. The moment for me is kind of like the end of I am Legend (book rather than film).