Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

of course you are correct : young europeans may well come to the UK because we are a uniquely, open, welcoming tolerant people, as well as having excellent economic prospects.

So, although it won't be a complete guide to the UKs prospects over the next few years, it is at least as interesting as debating unknowable things, such as what might have happened if things were different.

We readily accept the reverse. If people point to Greek troubles, evidencing the loss of the young and skilled to other places, nobody seems to think this is an absurd extension.

So judging the attractiveness of the UK compared to other places by the number of incomers seems valid IMO.

The reason it is difficult to measure the EU as a whole is that I don't actually know how they publish measurable targets.

I know about the EU plans to raise the GDP per capita for states like Poland, but what about the GDP per capita goals the EU has for somewhere like UK or Eire?

wotsthat

Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/project-fear-brexit-predictions-flawed-partisan-new-study-says/

Great news. A pinch of salt is needed because the report was written by....gulp....academics.

Herzlos

I really do look forward to that. I need a bigger house.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

Since the assumption is that it'll be a lot easier for a foreigner to leave the UK after we put up the fence, than it will be to get in, the immigration figures will be somewhat skewed upwards. If you were going to hedge your bets, you'd want to be on the inside when we leave.

That's a reasonable point Herzlos.
I assume firstly you are only talking about EU citizens.
We then have to look at what will attract EU citizens while Britain prepares to leave the EU.
The "magnet" of Britain might still be a positive for people from the "East of Europe" and as the door closes that might be an incentive to get inside before it closes.
However there are others, Students for example who might worry there degree studies could be cut short. Also those well educated who could be recruited for their skills might find that Britain is less attractive until residency is clarified during the leaving negotiation.
It is fascinating to watch how this will play out.

The situation regarding refugees from outside the EU has always been in the hands of the British Government and that has not and will not be changed unless the Government acts, as it can, unilaterall.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

...
The situation regarding refugees from outside the EU has always been in the hands of the British Government and that has not and will not be changed unless the Government acts, as it can, unilaterall.

Why would you not prioritize the intake of refugees over people from Eastern Europe?

Who is in greater need of security and basic income?

There was a feature recently looking at who was being employed in Turkish clothing factories. A good number of the new recruits were young Syrians, sometimes children.

It's clear that these people need the work, and will accept whatever terms you offer.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

IMHO it is looking increasingly likely that it will be much better for the UK than it will for the remaining 27.

A few reports in The Graudian today make interesting reading.
Firstly Martin Schulz who, we should remember, is leaving his presidency of the European Parliament to return to German politics:

The EU has failed to move on from the cataclysmic Brexit vote and is hamstrung by the failure of national leaders to sell the European vision back home

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/05/martin-schulz-eu-hamstrung-brexit-rise-populist-right

Then a brief report on a few aspects of the current state of the EU:

One clear lesson of 2016 was that rightwing populism seemed to appeal to voters because it, at least, had ideas, and that the left and centre ground had come up with few counter-proposals to match.
On the other hand, the message from nation states, so brutally articulated in Britain’s Brexit vote, is overwhelmingly one of “less Europe”.
And so Europe is paralysed, caught in a catch-22; torn between putting forward great ideas that can hit back against demagogues and restraining its own meddling tendencies. And this paralysis will have significant implications for the major projects the EU has started but not yet finished.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/05/so-whats-the-big-idea-european-union