Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Measuring something because it's measurable won't make the unknowable knowable.

how young europeans view the UK's prospects relative to europe's, is of interest to some of us : others may not find it so.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

how young europeans view the UK's prospects relative to europe's, is of interest to some of us : others may not find it so.

Your point, I thought, was not whether it was of interest but whether it was indicative of Brexit being good for Britain or not.

We'll be able to judge whether the claims of impending doom or the commencement of Conrad's fifth era of prosperity are nonsense fairly easily. As Brexit will probably impact us by shifting us one way or the other along the middle of a bell curve that will be much more difficult to determine.

Of course, what's good for Britain is quite a vague parameter to try and measure in the first place.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

how young europeans view the UK's prospects relative to europe's, is of interest to some of us : others may not find it so.

And how are you going to get that from migration data?

You can take advantage of an economies prosperity without being part of it, and people migrate for reasons other than economy.

The best way would be to ask them, but I'm not sure how reliable the results are.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Just to change the tone a little, I see that someone else is saying that the EU will no longer exist by the time our Article50 withrawal should be completed.
This person is Mark Blyth, a professor of political economy - and he correctly predicted a Brexit vote, a Trump win AND Italy's "no" vote.

In BBC's Newsnight he says:

“For all this... about Brexit and whether Britain should have left, it might be the case the EU ceases to exist before Article 50 is invoked.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b088127n
And as reported here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/750018/European-Union-Brexit-Trump-predication-collapse

More and more frequently now we are seeing similar doubts about the future of the EU, and from a variety of sources too.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Another here:

If you thought 2016 provided a rough ride for the European Union’s prospects, just wait for the 2017 upheavals. Testing times lie ahead. David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi are the dominoes that have already tumbled as disgruntled voters across Europe snub the establishment. The first few months of 2017 will usher in a number of potentially disruptive events.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20170104/opinion/2017-the-EU-in-peril.635591

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

And how are you going to get that from migration data?

You can take advantage of an economies prosperity without being part of it, and people migrate for reasons other than economy.

The best way would be to ask them, but I'm not sure how reliable the results are.

of course you are correct : young europeans may well come to the UK because we are a uniquely, open, welcoming tolerant people, as well as having excellent economic prospects.

So, although it won't be a complete guide to the UKs prospects over the next few years, it is at least as interesting as debating unknowable things, such as what might have happened if things were different.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

If you believe that this was made up as a scare tactic, why do you believe the governments unemployment figures are valid? They've got plenty of form for massaging them to make themselves look better.

It's definitely not as doom and gloom as we expected. I'm sure we can agree on that.
We also haven't actually left yet. I'm sure we can also agree on that.

Will it get better or worse? Who knows?

I will agree that we haven't left yet and no one knows truly if it will be better or worse. If they did I doubt they'd be on here posting, they'd be out spending their millions and loving life.

Not sure I agree with the massaging of unemployment figures, the measure has a definition, as long as that definition remains the same the figures will give an indication of trend relating to employment. It's not going to be like they're including disability claimants in the employed count as RT was suggesting we do for the unemployed count if they're incapable of working.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Your point, I thought, was not whether it was of interest but whether it was indicative of Brexit being good for Britain or not.

We'll be able to judge whether the claims of impending doom or the commencement of Conrad's fifth era of prosperity are nonsense fairly easily. As Brexit will probably impact us by shifting us one way or the other along the middle of a bell curve that will be much more difficult to determine.

Of course, what's good for Britain is quite a vague parameter to try and measure in the first place.

and so a young european perspective would be welcome and interesting

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

No.



I hope the bolding and font size helps.
What bit of 'after 2 years' don't you understand?

Mervyn King said the the pre vote treasury reports bought economics into disripute and two televised select committees concluded those reports merely reflected modelling to suit the political agenda of the day.

Ive said to you before to look into this and recommended the BBC statistics show, More Or Less in which leading protagonists in this field said the modelling was based on pure guesswork and more or less meaningless. They didn't even know who the leaders of European nations will be let alone thier views on the EU and trade with the UK

Anyone taking notice of these noddy reports really need to understand they are works of fiction

stator

Haven't read this thread but when you say "Good for Britain" if you mean purely in money/GDP terms then no, it's not good in the short/medium term.
If you mean "Will it make people happier" then perhaps yes, I would say it is. At least there will be no more excuses and "blame europe" thinking.