Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Shocking level of naivety and misunderstanding there from Conrad.....

This is really very simple - the EU club charges a club membership fee and has some clubs rules to follow - in return members get access to the single market without paying any tariffs or dealing with non-tariff barriers such as quotas or sectoral restrictions.

do you not believe in the mutual benefits of free trade ?:
do you really think that the EU27 are making sacrifices and are worse off by giving the UK the 'privilege' of free trade

As with any club, nobody is forced to stay a member - anyone can leave at any time and then stop paying the club membership fees and not have to follow the rules - but you then don't get access to the club facilities.

We are of course welcome to go elsewhere and play by ourselves, or even to join some other club, but we won't be getting all the privileges of membership in the EU club without paying the fees and following the rules.

very true
but again do you think that the EU is in some way doing UK a favour or do you believe that THEY benefit from free trade.


The membership fee has zero to do with free trade and eveything to do with politics and bribing sections of the country (Univ, research institutions etc very effectively) and subsidising certain countries and rich farmers

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

do you think that the EU is in some way doing UK a favour or do you believe that THEY benefit from free trade.

The EU has established a set of terms and conditions for membership of the single market and all the benefits that flow from it for both parties.

Those t&c include following the club rules and paying a fee.

Countries can of course choose not to be a member, follow the rules, or pay the fees.

But the consequence of that is you don't get the same level of access and freedom from both tariff and non-tariff barriers that a member does.

This is an incredibly simple concept really - no need to try and complicate matters.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

This is an incredibly simple concept really - no need to try and complicate matters.

Japan, S Korea and others make plenty from trading with the EU, no need for any hysteria about membership and club fees.


Incredibly simple. As I said to you long ago, this all comes down to whether one is minded to confidently embrace change or sit there terrified and hysterical. The opportunities are vast and exciting.


Your side completely under estimates the degree to which the EU needs us, and I don't mean just in terms of trade


All will be well

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Canada, not in Europe and with current trade worth tens x less to the EU, has negotiated almost total free trade.

Rubbish.

Many agricultural products, like eggs or chicken/turkey meat, are not covered by CETA as they're deemed 'sensitive' by the EU, while for others like beef - duty-free access will only be granted for limited quantities.

In other words - quotas - the very definition of non-tariff barriers and the opposite of "almost total free trade" - exists under the Canadian deal.

So under a Canada style deal British farmers would be highly exposed to EU tariffs versus not at all exposed today as an EU member.

We already know the issues with complex supply chains and up to 10% tariffs that will exist in automotive and aerospace - and of course a FTA would not satisfy external Rules of Origin requirements for re-export of cars, aircraft, etc, in many countries.

And of course the EU-Canada has virtually northing on services liberalisation – it's nowhere near comparable to being a member of the single market - and of course we run a services export surplus with the EU.... We sell more to them than they buy from us.... So there is simply no commercial incentive for them to agree one.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Japan, S Korea and others make plenty from trading with the EU, no need for any hysteria about membership and club fees.

At higher cost and as a much smaller part of their output.

Nobody else comes close to being reliant on the EU for 45% of their trade and where hundreds of billions of inwards investment has been made because we're in the single market.

Let's ask the Japanese what they think about us and the EU....

the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges.

http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unprecedented-warning-to-uk-over-brexit-10564585

Conrad

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Exactly like every time they vote Tory thinking the next Bullingdon twit in a £4000 suit is going to make them a millionaire.

Whereas some starrey eyed, socialist twit that has never created a business in his life will surely know how to make us all better off, lol


I know lets dream up a shed load of regulations and diversity quotas, increase taxation and stop selling to any regimes we deem beneath our superior morals, just what UK plc needs

ruggedtoast

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Rubbish.

Many agricultural products, like eggs or chicken/turkey meat, are not covered by CETA as they're deemed 'sensitive' by the EU, while for others like beef - duty-free access will only be granted for limited quantities.

In other words - quotas - the very definition of non-tariff barriers and the opposite of "almost total free trade" - exists under the Canadian deal.

So under a Canada style deal British farmers would be highly exposed to EU tariffs versus not at all exposed today as an EU member.

We already know the issues with complex supply chains and up to 10% tariffs that will exist in automotive and aerospace - and of course a FTA would not satisfy external Rules of Origin requirements for re-export of cars, aircraft, etc, in many countries.

And of course the EU-Canada has virtually northing on services liberalisation – it's nowhere near comparable to being a member of the single market - and of course we run a services export surplus with the EU.... We sell more to them than they buy from us.... So there is simply no commercial incentive for them to agree one.

Oh shoot. Facts!

Run Conrad, run!

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The EU has established a set of terms and conditions for membership of the single market and all the benefits that flow from it for both parties.

Those t&c include following the club rules and paying a fee.

Countries can of course choose not to be a member, follow the rules, or pay the fees.

But the consequence of that is you don't get the same level of access and freedom from both tariff and non-tariff barriers that a member does.

This is an incredibly simple concept really - no need to try and complicate matters.

Free trade is a very simple concept.

It doesn't mean you have to smash the greek people
it doesn't mean you have to subsidise French and German farmers
it doesn't mean you have to spend billion of euros on wasteful vanity projects although they are useful to buy alligiance from UNis and all sorts of arty and reseach institutions
it doesn't mean you have to promote harmful diesel products and prevent valuable medical research and innovation.

true like being a member of the bullingdon club you have to obey the rules if you want to be a member.
Its very simply, I don't think the rules are rational or in the best interest of the people of the UK

Doshwaster

CLAPTON wrote: »

Free trade is a very simple concept.

It doesn't mean you have to smash the greek people

So what should the EU, IMF etc have done with Greece?
a) Let them go bankrupt
b) Bail them out without any conditions and allow them to carry on as before
c) Bail them out but require them to run their economy sensibly

If you really believe in national sovereignty and a free market then your answer should be a). it was their fault so let them suffer. Answer b) doesn't help them or us as it's the equivalent of keep giving money to alcoholic or gambling addict.

In reality, c) was the only realistic option. Greece was bailed out but the international community required them to get a grip on their economy.

That's not to say the EU and banks were blameless. They allowed Greece to join before they were ready and lent them far too much money at low interest rates.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

Free trade is a very simple concept.

It doesn't mean you have to smash the greek people
it doesn't mean you have to subsidise French and German farmers
it doesn't mean you have to spend billion of euros on wasteful vanity projects although they are useful to buy alligiance from UNis and all sorts of arty and reseach institutions
it doesn't mean you have to promote harmful diesel products and prevent valuable medical research and innovation.

true like being a member of the bullingdon club you have to obey the rules if you want to be a member.
Its very simply, I don't think the rules are rational or in the best interest of the people of the UK

I think their rules are more rational than your negative re-framing of reality....'smash the Greek people'........give us a break mate!