Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

kabayiri

CKhalvashi wrote: »

...
I'm aware that my postings here are being watched, but by who exactly (as in the username), I don't know. Someone a few weeks back commented on something I'd posted on fb (that clients could see) specifically relating to infos I'd posted here. Not for the first time, either.

You do realise that there are crawlers and spider bots trawling the major forums don't you?

Reputation management companies make their living from keeping an eye on what is being discussed. They don't just sit there with a few staff and try and read everything which is posted!

I had a program looking at some online sales adverts. That's about as much as I think I should say, but I will caveat and say it was NOT about MSE.

Detune the anecdotes a bit.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

The relative costs of trading with the EU and the rest of the world is a reasonable question which hasn't been answered;
equally the question of why our trade with the EU is falling relative to the rest of the world is an equally valid question.

3 of us have answered it in the last page. It costs much more to trade outside of the EU.

The relative amount of red tape between markets doesn't necessarially determine the profit to be made.

Of course not. But it makes that the trade more expensive. If I can make £100 on a shipment to the US, even if it costs me £20, then that's more profitable than making £20 on a shipment to Germany, that cost me £5. But like for like, it's always going to be cheaper to trade to EU than non-EU for 2 reasons: Customs union/single market (less paperwork), and ease of logistics (regular deliveries, shorter distance, channel tunnel).

Now, if we can grow our non-EU trade by enough to offset the difference in material and opportunity costs, it may be worth it. I've seen zero evidence that that'd be the case though. We'd need to boost our trade by about 10% on top of whatever we need to do to pay for Brexit, before we're even close to being where we started. Probably need an export increase of about 20%.

It's good you firmly recognise the damage and harm the EU will do to the people of europe if they don't come to a reasonable trade agreement with the UK.

Have you come to recognise the damage that the UK will do to the people of the UK if we don't come to a reasonable trade agreement with Europe? We have much, much more to lose.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

3 of us have answered it in the last page. It costs much more to trade outside of the EU.



Of course not. But it makes that the trade more expensive. If I can make £100 on a shipment to the US, even if it costs me £20, then that's more profitable than making £20 on a shipment to Germany, that cost me £5. But like for like, it's always going to be cheaper to trade to EU than non-EU for 2 reasons: Customs union/single market (less paperwork), and ease of logistics (regular deliveries, shorter distance, channel tunnel).

Now, if we can grow our non-EU trade by enough to offset the difference in material and opportunity costs, it may be worth it. I've seen zero evidence that that'd be the case though. We'd need to boost our trade by about 10% on top of whatever we need to do to pay for Brexit, before we're even close to being where we started. Probably need an export increase of about 20%.



Have you come to recognise the damage that the UK will do to the people of the UK if we don't come to a reasonable trade agreement with Europe? We have much, much more to lose.

I believe in the benefits of free trade : I believe these benefits are mutual , that is, they accrue to both partners in the trade.
I believe these benefits accrues to both partners even if one partners to the trade isn't white , chrisitian and europe.
We both seem to agree that EU protectionism costs us all money.

If/when we leave the EU the EU27 will need to make decisions about whether to damage their own people or not. If they decide to damage the people fo the EU27 they will indeed do damage to the UK.

Looking round the world, however, the existance of tariff and non tariff barriers doesn't seem to have stopped profitable trade. Indeed it seems strange that the UK proportion of trade with EU is declining and trade with the RoW is growing. So whilst I respect the £20 or £5 costs you illustrate but there seems to be a bigger picture elsewhere.
I would like the EU27 to be a less corrupt, less vindictive organisation and more concerned with the real problems of the EU people like unemployment and the state of Greece and the southern EU states. However that isn't in my gift.

Herzlos

Europe doesn't have to do anything though; they've given us terms and we can agree to them, disagree with them, or suggest others which they have no obligation to accept. We're the ones leaving and we're the ones that need to offer a solution that works for everyone.

Sure, they'll hurt if they get a bad deal, but they'll hurt worse if they let us have our cake and eat it.

CLAPTON wrote: »

I would like the EU27 to be a less corrupt, less vindictive organisation and more concerned with the real problems of the EU people like unemployment and the state of Greece and the southern EU states.

We stand some chance of being able to do that from inside, and zero from outside.

However that isn't in my gift.

You got to elect an MEP to make those changes, and petition them to do their job. What can we do now?

Concerned75

Will Brexit be good for Britain?
Is Britain good now? There's your answer.
We're in Europe, but not part of it in so many ways....

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Sure, they'll hurt if they get a bad deal, but they'll hurt worse if they let us have our cake and eat it.

Who is supreme, the public or Brussels?


Brussels wont want to be seen to enter a good trade deal, but the European public and their directly elected representatives will want trade to carry on as is.


No way will Politicians looking to win forthcoming elections put on their manifesto that they will deliberately wish to harm their own trade with us.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

No way will Politicians looking to win forthcoming elections put on their manifesto that they will deliberately wish to harm their own trade with us.

Shocking level of naivety and misunderstanding there from Conrad.....

This is really very simple - the EU club charges a club membership fee and has some clubs rules to follow - in return members get access to the single market without paying any tariffs or dealing with non-tariff barriers such as quotas or sectoral restrictions.

As with any club, nobody is forced to stay a member - anyone can leave at any time and then stop paying the club membership fees and not have to follow the rules - but you then don't get access to the club facilities.

We are of course welcome to go elsewhere and play by ourselves, or even to join some other club, but we won't be getting all the privileges of membership in the EU club without paying the fees and following the rules.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Shocking level of naivety and misunderstanding there from Conrad.....

This is really very simple - the EU club charges a club membership fee and has some clubs rules to follow - in return members get access to the single market without paying any tariffs or dealing with non-tariff barriers such as quotas or sectoral restrictions.

As with any club, nobody is forced to stay a member - anyone can leave at any time and then stop paying the club membership fees and not have to follow the rules - but you then don't get access to the club facilities.

We are of course welcome to go elsewhere and play by ourselves, or even to join some other club, but we won't be getting all the privileges of membership in the EU club without paying the fees and following the rules.

Hmm.
The problem with that is that the club allows almost anybody entry for some things at least and often without any fees.
The club actually pays many members just for being a member.
And the rules of the club can vary day-by-day and member-by-member.
It isn't exactly a very fair example of a club, in fact.

As for being welcome to go elsewhere - well, not according to the cries from those in power in this club.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Shocking level of naivety and misunderstanding there from Conrad.....


We are of course welcome to go elsewhere and play by ourselves, or even to join some other club, but we won't be getting all the privileges of membership in the EU club without paying the fees and following the rules.

Canada, not in Europe and with current trade worth tens x less to the EU, has negotiated almost total free trade. We are already enjoying free trade (it's not some future abstract aim), and are fully aligned, so the trade deal will be straight forwards.


Services aren't trading freely anyway and in any event if tariffs go up they will affect us far less than the EU that tend to sell us goods that attract high tariffs.


Given we are the investment Banker to the Europe (http://www.professionaladviser.com/professional-adviser/news/2478823/carney-backs-city-as-the-investment-banker-of-Europe) - it would be a disaster for the EU to disrupt 2 way access and trade


Your hysterics are giving me great laughs, and once the trade issue is resolved in a grow-up fashion, the laughs will be even more delicious

movilogo

What's the point of this thread?

We had a nationwide referendum on 23 June 2016 and majority voted to leave which signifies majority believes will be better for UK to leave EU.

Different people have their own definitions of good and bad.