I have a growing feeling that Britain will NOT leave the EU

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So Brussels have a clear plan, which has been spelled out for a long time and never changed. what more do you want from them?

Since we know Mays current plan is impossible, and Brussels & May know her plan is impossible, why are we wasting precious negotiating time on it?

Why do people feel the best approach is a hostile one where they go in asking for the impossible and then having to concede, instead of a friendly one where they go in with a proposal that might actually be accepted?

I must concur with Tricky as above.

Also - regarding that which I highlight in red above - WHY do you think that the must the UK concede before the deadline?
You think agreement will be reached?
Improbable given the stance at this moment in time, and that without considering the question of how to get 27 countries to agree.

So assume no agreement, because firstly we would revert to WTO arrangements.
Secondly by the time agreement should be reached the EU will certainly be a different entity to that which it is now.
How different only the coming two years will tell, but it WILL be different.
Lastly (as I have said before) if the EU treats the UK more harshly than other countries it has any dealings with it is leaving itself wide-open to litigation.

Can you name a single upper hand we have, that might cause the EU to cave to some of our less... extravagent... demands?

Yes, very easily.
An EU determined to show itself to be cruel and dictatorial as well as being unwilling to reform despite requests from a member state will without doubt be viewed with horror by many in the Eurozone.
If you honestly do not envisage the negative effect that will have across Europe with both current and prospective countries you really are blinkered.

"Come, join the wonderful EU club (Or stay with us in the EU club.). Wealth and trade for all"
"But no, you can't ever leave until we have tried our damndest to drain every last gramme of everything you have out of you in our quest for power and domination."

Yup, real encouragement for the EU that would be eh?

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

Remoaners are on the side of Brussels, the worst deal the better as far as remoaners are concerned.

Out of interest Conrad, why do you see one group who complain about brexit being moaners, but the other side who complained about the EU are not moaners?

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

Out of interest Conrad, why do you see one group who complain about brexit being moaners, but the other side who complained about the EU are not moaners?

I'm a bit rude to remainers that simply disregard the evidence and who's entire outlook is simply a function of their fear of change.


Take for example their latest hysterics on the Customs Union. Their latest line is it will be chaos if we leave it. Utter nonsense once more. Norway is not in the CU but has no issues managing to sell 70% of its exports into the EU. Similar with Switzerland.


Then they scream our goods will be stuck in ports. Again utter ignorance - if this were the case we'd not manage to buy millions of S Korean, Japanese and US products.


I don't mind remainers that stick to FACTS and common sense, but there aren't that many of them


LEAVERS - tend to have a fairly good picture of the EU downsides in a way remainers seem blinded to.




REMAINER STRONG ARGUMENT - for me your strongest argument is probably around security and peace, but the trade stuff is just hysterics pure and simple

cogito

Dear Mr Juncker,

We hereby give notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that we are leaving the EU.

As of today, we will be sending you no more money and will be recalling all our civil servants from Brussels.

We will trade with you under WTO terms until we reach agreement with you about our continuing relationship.
Yours Truly
The UK

Just kidding. Maybe.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Can you name a single upper hand we have, that might cause the EU to cave to some of our less... extravagent... demands?

If you're asking I would start with geopolitics and military security.

We don't share borders with Russia, but some other EU countries do.

We have something to offer in this area, and we are perfectly entitled to place a value on it.

Herzlos

We still have some political and military might, but we're not really big enough to go it alone anymore anyway, and Boris is doing his best to ruin us politically. It's certainly a bargaining position on our part, but it's not going to get us single market without FoM.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

One is a bi-lateral agreement between the EU and the 3rd party, the other is membership of the single market. Everything above that you've posted appears to assume that membership of the single market is the stated aim.

Single market is the stated aim though; at least, that's what all businesses want. We'd be happy with an equivalant, but again, why would we get a special concession?

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Also - regarding that which I highlight in red above - WHY do you think that the must the UK concede before the deadline?

Because I think dropping to WTO will be disastrous for us, without pages of exceptions. We need to try and get something agreed before we default to WTO. Of course, if WTO is your aim, we've got no point in conceding.

You think agreement will be reached?

From Mays current approach? No chance.

Could it be reached by someone else? Sure.

Improbable given the stance at this moment in time, and that without considering the question of how to get 27 countries to agree.

Lastly (as I have said before) if the EU treats the UK more harshly than other countries it has any dealings with it is leaving itself wide-open to litigation.

Agreed. But I'm not talking about the UK getting a worse deal than non-EU, I'm saying that the UK is asking for a better deal than within EU, and that's just not going to happen.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

We still have some political and military might, but we're not really big enough to go it alone anymore anyway, and Boris is doing his best to ruin us politically. It's certainly a bargaining position on our part, but it's not going to get us single market without FoM.



Single market is the stated aim though; at least, that's what all businesses want. We'd be happy with an equivalant, but again, why would we get a special concession?


Because I think dropping to WTO will be disastrous for us, without pages of exceptions. We need to try and get something agreed before we default to WTO. Of course, if WTO is your aim, we've got no point in conceding.



From Mays current approach? No chance.

Could it be reached by someone else? Sure.

Improbable given the stance at this moment in time, and that without considering the question of how to get 27 countries to agree.



Agreed. But I'm not talking about the UK getting a worse deal than non-EU, I'm saying that the UK is asking for a better deal than within EU, and that's just not going to happen.

Well in my view I don't think it's a special dispensation. Just an adult arrangement that works for both parties since anything else is detrimental to both parties.

Both parties starting on the extremes of the spectrum will likely end up somewhere near the middle which counts as a win for both without looking like a defeat for either. Which will ultimately be the aim of the UK and the EU individually.

Herzlos

What May is asking for *is* special dispensation though. She wants:

1. Single market access, including customs union and passporting
2. No subscription fee
3. No Freedom Of Movement.

Getting #1 requires #2 and #3. No ifs, buts or maybes.
If she somehow got that deal, the EU would be making a massive compromise that'd result in the rest of the EU asking why they can't get the same deal.

If we remained *in* the EU, kept the (vastly reduced) subscription fee, and pushed for some control over migration (beyond just refusing benefits to people that haven't paid tax here yet, which we could do anyway), then it might have been acceptable.

BobQ

cogito wrote: »

Dear Mr Juncker,

We hereby give notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that we are leaving the EU.

As of today, we will be sending you no more money and will be recalling all our civil servants from Brussels.

We will trade with you under WTO terms until we reach agreement with you about our continuing relationship.
Yours Truly
The UK

Just kidding. Maybe.

"Dear Mrs May.

Thank you for your letter. We are very disappointed with your action.

The EU is quite content to continue trading with you under WTO rules. We will be instituting new rules requiring all products imported into the EU from the UK to carry an EU Certificate of Type Approval issued by a laboratory certified to conduct such tests (details to be advised).

We will be notifying UK Passport holders residing in the EU they have 21 days to leave the EU and apply for an EU visa (pending agreement by the EU of any applicable exemptions).

Immigration and Customs controls will be implemented at the Eire/UK border, the Eurotunnel and the Spanish/Gibraltar border in 14 days.

The EU is willing to discuss arrangement for allowing employees of UK financial institutions to operate under an EU passport once such arrangements have been agreed. In the meantime these arrangements will be suspended.

Inevitably their may be other disruptions to your dealing with the EU. We regret this but you have caused this by confirming UK's breach of an international treaty that it had freely signed without giving the required notice.

Yours

Junker

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

"Dear Mrs May.

Thank you for your letter. We are very disappointed with your action.

The EU is quite content to continue trading with you under WTO rules. We will be instituting new rules requiring all products imported into the EU from the UK to carry an EU Certificate of Type Approval issued by a laboratory certified to conduct such tests (details to be advised).

We will be notifying UK Passport holders residing in the EU they have 21 days to leave the EU and apply for an EU visa (pending agreement by the EU of any applicable exemptions).

Immigration and Customs controls will be implemented at the Eire/UK border, the Eurotunnel and the Spanish/Gibraltar border in 14 days.

The EU is willing to discuss arrangement for allowing employees of UK financial institutions to operate under an EU passport once such arrangements have been agreed. In the meantime these arrangements will be suspended.

Inevitably their may be other disruptions to your dealing with the EU. We regret this but you have caused this by confirming UK's breach of an international treaty that it had freely signed without giving the required notice.

Yours

Junker

the frightening thing is one could just believe the EU would do that given the damage it has done, both to its own 'citizens' and those of people outside the EU