I have a growing feeling that Britain will NOT leave the EU

The_Last_Username

Herzlos wrote: »

What May is asking for *is* special dispensation though. She wants:

1. Single market access, including customs union and passporting
2. No subscription fee
3. No Freedom Of Movement.

Getting #1 requires #2 and #3. No ifs, buts or maybes.
If she somehow got that deal, the EU would be making a massive compromise that'd result in the rest of the EU asking why they can't get the same deal.

If we remained *in* the EU, kept the (vastly reduced) subscription fee, and pushed for some control over migration (beyond just refusing benefits to people that haven't paid tax here yet, which we could do anyway), then it might have been acceptable.

You're living in La-la land.
Nothing proposed by the UK would be acceptable to some within the EU.
Have Junckers, Tusk, Schulz, etc. etc. not been clear enough for you?
It is perfectly clear to many of us that they are determined to prevent other countries wanting to leave at any cost, meaning (to put it simply) that they want to make an example of the UK in order to prevent the possibility of such actions by other member states.

As has been said, such dictatorial actions will very probably have the opposite effect entirely.
Do you really think that the French Front Nationale or Dutch Freedom Party just for two examples will not gain votes when such actions are seen by voters?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

What May is asking for *is* special dispensation though. She wants:

1. Single market access, including customs union and passporting
2. No subscription fee
3. No Freedom Of Movement.

Getting #1 requires #2 and #3. No ifs, buts or maybes.
If she somehow got that deal, the EU would be making a massive compromise that'd result in the rest of the EU asking why they can't get the same deal.

If we remained *in* the EU, kept the (vastly reduced) subscription fee, and pushed for some control over migration (beyond just refusing benefits to people that haven't paid tax here yet, which we could do anyway), then it might have been acceptable.

Single market access can be negotiated bi-laterally.

The customs union isn't something I would place a priority on since it would impinge on our ability to strike trade deals with the rest of the world, so the government probably isn't angling for the customs union in my opinion. Why have a trade secretary if we were?

For passporting we probably won't get the deal we want, but the equivalency rules put in place by the EU which will allow Wall St and Hong Kong access to sell financial services into the EU would allow our financial services to do the same. So we cannot be cut off completely, if the EU would want to cut off the capital they have access to via our financial market, which I doubt.

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You think agreement will be reached?
Improbable given the stance at this moment in time, and that without considering the question of how to get 27 countries to agree.

Politics will come into play. Merkel is seeking re-election next year. Highly likely she will require the support of Bavaria when it comes to forming a Government. . Taken in isolation the state of alone Bavaria would rank 8th in terms of economic output within the EU. Bavaria wants (unsurprisingly) a good relationship with the UK. What a web we weave.

leveller2911

cogito wrote: »

Dear Mr Juncker,

We hereby give notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that we are leaving the EU.

As of today, we will be sending you no more money and will be recalling all our civil servants from Brussels.

We will trade with you under WTO terms until we reach agreement with you about our continuing relationship.
Yours Truly
The UK

I'm not sure they will miss the British employees working for the EU Commission given that only 3.8% of EU staff are British..Even Romania (4.3%) have more people working for the EU..........

http://theconversation.com/how-many-people-work-for-the-eu-59702

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

We still have some political and military might, but we're not really big enough to go it alone anymore anyway,

What does the EU offer that we cannot do ourselves?

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

What May is asking for *is* special dispensation though. She wants:

1. Single market access, including customs union and passporting
2. No subscription fee
3. No Freedom Of Movement.

Getting #1 requires #2 and #3. No ifs, buts or maybes.
If she somehow got that deal, the EU would be making a massive compromise that'd result in the rest of the EU asking why they can't get the same deal.

If we remained *in* the EU, kept the (vastly reduced) subscription fee, and pushed for some control over migration (beyond just refusing benefits to people that haven't paid tax here yet, which we could do anyway), then it might have been acceptable.

I am somewhat perplexed by the notion that someone starts a negotiation asking for anything less than the absolute maximum best deal they can think of.

Both the UK and the EU are currently stating their respective best positions.
The inevitable compromise will take place as everyone knows.

Only an idiot would open at compromise position, but you seem to think that's the way to go...

gfplux

Even before the negotiations I don't think I have seen the EU so united. We (all 28) Country's are probably reading more about the EU than ever before.

gfplux

This post is just a place holder.
Perhaps I was wrong when I posted this thread. Perhaps the vote in Parliament means that Britain is on its way.
Good news if it means that uncertainty will diminish.

HornetSaver

Is it not the case that uncertainty will diminish as a direct result of Theresa May agreeing to outline her overall approach to Parliament?

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

I am somewhat perplexed by the notion that someone starts a negotiation asking for anything less than the absolute maximum best deal they can think of.

So, if you're selling at old car, say a 1992 Fiesta. Do you start the opening bit of £400m? Or do you start it at £400?

My point is you start with the maximum best deal you think might be accepted, rather than the best deal you want. Otherwise you're just wasting everyones time.