I have a growing feeling that Britain will NOT leave the EU

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Are the people to chose how we leave?

Choose what? The EU's position is very clear to see. The aims and principles of the EU will remain the same. That was the message to Cameron and no doubt will be to the exit negotiators.

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Choose what? The EU's position is very clear to see. The aims and principles of the EU will remain the same. That was the message to Cameron and no doubt will be to the exit negotiators.

Will the aims and principles of the EU last the two years of Brexit negotiations?

The_Last_Username

BobQ wrote: »

Will the aims and principles of the EU last the two years of Brexit negotiations?

It does look increasingly unlikely.

It has been a dreadful year for the European Union. It has just got a lot worse. Next year could transform a looming existential threat into a terminal reality. The end of a joint 60-year project to transform the politics of an entire continent is now a distinct possibility.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38212049

gfplux

BobQ wrote: »

Will the aims and principles of the EU last the two years of Brexit negotiations?

18 months only. The next six months has to be used to get the deal approved by 28 parliaments.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Choose what? The EU's position is very clear to see. The aims and principles of the EU will remain the same. That was the message to Cameron and no doubt will be to the exit negotiators.

I think you might have previously mentioned just how difficult it will be for the EU to maintain a singular position when their members will be affected very differently by Brexit.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

I think you might have previously mentioned just how difficult it will be for the EU to maintain a singular position when their members will be affected very differently by Brexit.

I said this.

There always seems to be this tension (if not conflict) between the entity we know as the EU and individual EU states.

We saw this with Germany making the unilateral refugee invite. Presumably Merkel was trying to take a moral stance, but it did seem like something which was an EU issue because it affects multiple countries.

The voters in Eire won't thank the EU for protecting French farmers, or Polish migrant workers, if they feel that they are losing out from the Brexit deal.

Anyway, what's the betting we just end up with fudge.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

Anyway, what's the betting we just end up with fudge.

Chances are quite high I would've thought.

The Brexit deal, on the EU side, only requires a majority to go through but I'm sure the EU would wish it to be passed unanimously. This is going to require a whole separate negotiation happening in parallel and a whole load of horse trading.

The UK government are also going to be conducting separate negotiations about the negotiations.

The first item for negotiation should be the timetable. Two years might be enough to legally remove ourselves from the EU but there's no way we'll can be fully extricated in an orderly fashion in that time frame.

All this will be happening against a backdrop of indignant headlines about the gall of Johnny Foreigner.

Slow, steady, methodical progress is what's required.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

All this will be happening against a backdrop of indignant headlines about the gall of Johnny Foreigner.

.

I assume you are referring to the vitriol that is coming from top EU people against the UK.

Enterprise_1701C

We might not need to leave soon, all we need is for Marine Le Pen to be voted in next year and the EU is toast.

Of course that means that Germany will try again, but this time we will be waiting for them. I have always thought it should have remained a common market, the only reason for things like the Euro is the total destruction of unaligned economies therefore indebting those countries to the EU (read that as Germany) and making it very hard for them to act independently.

We need to start again. We need a trading union with NOTHING else allowed, and trade outside that union to be negotiated individually by the various countries as and when desired.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

I assume you are referring to the vitriol that is coming from top EU people against the UK.

Not really. I'm worried negotiations will have to take place against an unhelpful background of people (like you) just waiting to be offended by any EU slight (real or perceived) with their prejudices fed by a willing gutter press.