Will Britain really leave EU?

Tromking

gadgetmind wrote: »

Personally I fully intend to keep the blame for Brexit firmly focussed on those who voted for it and no-one else. If Brexit goes as well as they claimed it would, then hats off to them. If it continues to spiral down the pan in exactly the way that Remain said it would then I'd hope that Leave would return the favour.

I understand that, many virtue signalling remainers would prefer every time to be seen as the victim of xenophobes and closet racists. That said, isn't there a scintilla of annoyance at Merkel, Hollande, Juncker and the rest, that if only they'd been just a tad more obliging to a desperate Cameron, then we wouldn't be on the brink of Brexit?

mwpt

Tromking wrote: »

I understand that, many virtue signalling remainers would prefer every time to be seen as the victim of xenophobes and closet racists. That said, isn't there a scintilla of annoyance at Merkel, Hollande, Juncker and the rest, that if only they'd been just a tad more obliging to a desperate Cameron, then we wouldn't be on the brink of Brexit?

There is that, but there are 27 other nations in the EU and I don't see why we should expect them to bend to the will of Britain.

I am more annoyed that the referendum lumped a bunch of disparate views under one "leave" vote and called it democratic.

gadgetmind

Tromking wrote: »

if only they'd been just a tad more obliging

Obliging in what way? The Leave campaign were quoting the £350m a week and issues such as democracy and sovereignty, and showing queues of Syrian refugees. What could the EU have offered to counter these arguments?

martinthebandit

gadgetmind wrote: »

What could the EU have offered to counter these arguments?

Well it could have been far more inclusive rather than exclusive for the last 40 odd years for a start.

mrginge

gadgetmind wrote: »

Obliging in what way? The Leave campaign were quoting the £350m a week and issues such as democracy and sovereignty, and showing queues of Syrian refugees. What could the EU have offered to counter these arguments?

They could have offered concessions on free movement six months ago, with the resulting landslide remain vote making all the current uncertainty non-existent.

mwpt

mrginge wrote: »

They could have offered concessions on free movement six months ago, with the resulting landslide remain vote making all the current uncertainty non-existent.

Do you think that would have been a good outcome for the UK?

gadgetmind

mrginge wrote: »

They could have offered concessions on free movement six months ago

How would this have affected democracy and sovereignty, the £350m a week or the Syrian refugees?

And if free movement was causing issues, we could have introduced restrictions while remaining in the EU.

From that article - "Under current European Economic Area rules (which cover EU member states as well as non-EU members like Norway, which has full access to the single market) there is already an option to apply “safeguard measures” in the event of “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist”."

So it seems that the EU offering us additional powers to control free movement of people was neither necessary nor sufficient. Not necessary because we could already do this (not that we should of course!) and it's not sufficient as it wouldn't do anything to address the rest of the Leave "shopping list" of issues.

As things stand, even a short term restriction on hiring from the EU would damage my business in ways that I cannot permit, so I'm already reducing my UK workforce and creating/expanding offices in other EU countries. If we lose valuable freedoms such as free movement, that we've fought so hard for in the past, then I'm prepared. If not, well nothing lost and I get to visit Spain on business more often.

mrginge

mwpt wrote: »

Do you think that would have been a good outcome for the UK?

I think it would have been enough of a good outcome to ensure a majority remain vote. For me personally, it would be a margin call as I have a more fundamental problem with the current state of the EU. Free movement changes *may* have been enough of a starting point to make me think that further reforms would be possible.

mrginge

gadgetmind wrote: »

How would this have affected democracy and sovereignty, the £350m a week or the Syrian refugees?

And if free movement was causing issues, we could have introduced restrictions while remaining in the EU.

From that article - "Under current European Economic Area rules (which cover EU member states as well as non-EU members like Norway, which has full access to the single market) there is already an option to apply “safeguard measures” in the event of “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist”."

So it seems that the EU offering us additional powers to control free movement of people was neither necessary nor sufficient. Not necessary because we could already do this (not that we should of course!) and it's not sufficient as it wouldn't do anything to address the rest of the Leave "shopping list" of issues.

As things stand, even a short term restriction on hiring from the EU would damage my business in ways that I cannot permit, so I'm already reducing my UK workforce and creating/expanding offices in other EU countries. If we lose valuable freedoms such as free movement, that we've fought so hard for in the past, then I'm prepared. If not, well nothing lost and I get to visit Spain on business more often.

I think you've misunderstood the point.
The key issue in the referendum was free movement. The result clearly shows that people felt that this was a more important issue than economic factors.

So my point is that if a sensible concession had been made by the EU then more than enough of the marginal leave voters would have stuck with remain. Nonsense about 350m may have persuaded some people, sovereignty issues would have persuaded others, but nowhere near enough to produce a leave result.

The points that -
A. The EU are now starting to talk about such restrictions
B. According to the above such restrictions could have been made anyway, but weren't
Just highlight how badly the govt and EU handled things.

Rinoa

movilogo wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brexit-deal-free-movement-exemption-seven-years

Excellent news.

So the EU blinked first.