Will Britain really leave EU?

TrickyTree83

DollarSaver wrote: »

Don't over complicate it. This is about punishment of the perceived problem. UKIP was always about simple idea to complex world issues. Populist ideas that unthinking people can seemingly grasp.

I don't think I have.

Labour votes bleeding through to UKIP ideas says to me that the left is out of touch.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

4 of them are in the EU.

You're talking about Switzerland, which is part of the single market, and essentially part of the EU as far as trade is concerned, but not technically part of the EU?

Do you fancy addressing the actual point?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

You're talking about Switzerland, which is part of the single market, and essentially part of the EU as far as trade is concerned, but not technically part of the EU?

Do you fancy addressing the actual point?

Well it's not part of the EU, they have control of their own trade affairs. So the statistics you computed are incorrect.

Herzlos

They aren't bound to the common market?

Assuming that trade with them isn't affected by us leaving the EU, that skews the figures down to 20.6 non-EU, 26.3% EU, 7% Switzerland. So my point is still the same; non-EU trade would need to increase by a significant margin in order to beat the EU trade, and most of the countries we're talking about forging trade deals with aren't even in the top 6/7, with less than 5/5.5% of our trade.

That said, a 40% increase on US exports or a 100% increase in Chinese exports would bring non-EU trading up to parity with EU (excluding Switzerland) figures. It's not impossible, but is it likely?

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

They aren't bound to the common market?

Assuming that trade with them isn't affected by us leaving the EU, that skews the figures down to 20.6 non-EU, 26.3% EU, 7% Switzerland. So my point is still the same; non-EU trade would need to increase by a significant margin in order to beat the EU trade, and most of the countries we're talking about forging trade deals with aren't even in the top 6/7, with less than 5/5.5% of our trade.

That said, a 40% increase on US exports or a 100% increase in Chinese exports would bring non-EU trading up to parity with EU (excluding Switzerland) figures. It's not impossible, but is it likely?

Are you predicting that all trade with the EU will simply stop?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

They aren't bound to the common market?

Assuming that trade with them isn't affected by us leaving the EU, that skews the figures down to 20.6 non-EU, 26.3% EU, 7% Switzerland. So my point is still the same; non-EU trade would need to increase by a significant margin in order to beat the EU trade, and most of the countries we're talking about forging trade deals with aren't even in the top 6/7, with less than 5/5.5% of our trade.

That said, a 40% increase on US exports or a 100% increase in Chinese exports would bring non-EU trading up to parity with EU (excluding Switzerland) figures. It's not impossible, but is it likely?

They are a member of the single market, but can also strike deals bilaterally with non-EU countries. Therefore saying they are part of the single market that we will be unable to access is incorrect.

gadgetmind

mrginge wrote: »

That's your opinion based on what you think the fall out will be. Other people may consider the fall out to be rather less serious. Obviously you believe those other people to be stupid.

Who do you think will be most affected by another 500k people being out of work? It hasn't happened yet, but it's a testable prediction. And who do you think will lose out when regions currently benefiting from EU funding will have it cut off? Do you really think that HMG will be able to make up the difference in a recession?

Well that's slightly patronising. Perhaps those people couldn't give a stuff what you think about them.

I did say that I felt a bit sorry for them, and as they don't seem to give a stuff about their own future, why would they give a stuff about anything else?

Perhaps the highly intelligent in our society like your good self should have taken the time to understand why those people feel the way they do

I'm not a social worker or mental health professional, so not my job, I'm afraid.

gadgetmind

Conrad wrote: »

I feel sorry for those that lack the vision and intellectual heft to understand the benefits of Brexit

I've never seen those benefits described in any meaningful detail by anyone with any shred of credibility.

zagubov

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Well it's not part of the EU, they have control of their own trade affairs. So the statistics you computed are incorrect.

Switzerland is technically outside the single market but recreates a virtual version of it via individual treaties; furthermore it is in customs union, currency union, is in a defence pact with and shares diplomatic missions with a single market member.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

Are you predicting that all trade with the EU will simply stop?

No, I'm pointing out that "non-EU sales are increasing" is somewhat meaningless when it's so far behind, and that we shouldn't be ditching the EU in order to trade externally.

Post-Brexit, sales to/from the EU will definitely slow down, or at least become more expensive.