Will Britain really leave EU?

setmefree2

martinthebandit wrote: »

.....and for a different perspective http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/30/andrew_fentem_silicon_roundabout_brexit/

'Last week, I met up with a friend who is the head of software for a large, well-known British technology company. Like a lot of the Remainers in the tech press, he was complaining that he had to do most of his recruitment abroad – such as from Eastern Europe. So I asked him what levels of salaries he was offering. The answer, it turned out, was £25k a year for junior roles. I was quite shocked. In the very early 1990s I was briefly employed as a junior coder and was paid about the going rate back then: £19k. Since those days, general compound inflation has been approximately 100 per cent, and rents have increased approximately 200 per cent.

When I asked why they were offering so little, my friend replied that with the EU’s mandatory freedom of movement, the owners of the company "know that they can get away with it".

I know tech people who voted Leave because of the downward effect FM is having on their salaries.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mayonnaise wrote: »

Article 50 ‘will be triggered by 2020’



Looks like it's dawning on the Conservatives that triggering Article 50 early in this Parliament would be economical and political suicide.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/24/article-50-will-be-triggered-by-2020-6025929/

To be fair they may well still go early next year.

But if they do you can bet your bottom dollar that it'll be Brexit-Light they're going for as the chances of them wanting to fight the 2020 election in the middle of a Brexit-Max recession are zero.

satchef1

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I think the whole of the UK will leave the EU but the actual substance of what that means will not change much. We will retain full access to the single market and keep freedom of movement but that will be slightly tweaked so that EU citizens have the automatic right to come and work in the UK but they don't have recourse to public funds until they meet some sort of threshold based on residency (ie EU citizens will be treated in the same way as immigrants from non-EU countries except that they won't have to get a visa).

Basically we trade the ability to be at the heart of designing EU legislation and our veto over it for the ability not to pay certain benefits to certain immigrants.

That's the punchline to the referendum joke.

The outcome that nobody wanted is the one we're most likely to wind up with. :T

Filo25

gadgetmind wrote: »

Ah yes, The Register.

£25k for a graduate with the relevant skills is *very* low. We typically offer £30k and get turned down about 50% of the time, but we do want bright bunnies rather than coding monkeys.

Anyway, if he can't hire these people from the EU and have them work in the UK, what's he going to do? I've just done the pay rises for my team (average 3%) and had to work my spreadsheets in a dozen currencies. I can pay people in Koruna and Zloty and Euro just as easily as in sterling.

The world has changed. Trying to erect walls and pretend it hasn't pretty much means putting up a "Closed For Business" sign.

Unfortunately the same where I work really, increasing amounts of Tech Dev work likely to be outsourced.

Filo25

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I think the whole of the UK will leave the EU but the actual substance of what that means will not change much. We will retain full access to the single market and keep freedom of movement but that will be slightly tweaked so that EU citizens have the automatic right to come and work in the UK but they don't have recourse to public funds until they meet some sort of threshold based on residency (ie EU citizens will be treated in the same way as immigrants from non-EU countries except that they won't have to get a visa).

Basically we trade the ability to be at the heart of designing EU legislation and our veto over it for the ability not to pay certain benefits to certain immigrants.

The other bit of the trade-off would be that we would have the ability to have our own trade deals as well.

The deal you are suggesting does seem to be the one which the media are running with at the moment and would pretty much be as well as we could do Economically I think, whether you could get a deal like that past every EU country without any of them using their veto is open to question though.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

McLaughlin was a 'remainer' so is doing everything possible to undermine the wishes of the people.

The head of the leave campaign is in government now and I'm sure he recollects they all felt it was best not to rush at invoking article 50.

It's probably on the back of a fag packet somewhere with the rest of the plan.

Herzlos

martinthebandit wrote: »

.....and for a different perspective http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/30/andrew_fentem_silicon_roundabout_brexit/

'Last week, I met up with a friend who is the head of software for a large, well-known British technology company. Like a lot of the Remainers in the tech press, he was complaining that he had to do most of his recruitment abroad – such as from Eastern Europe. So I asked him what levels of salaries he was offering. The answer, it turned out, was £25k a year for junior roles. I was quite shocked. In the very early 1990s I was briefly employed as a junior coder and was paid about the going rate back then: £19k. Since those days, general compound inflation has been approximately 100 per cent, and rents have increased approximately 200 per cent.

When I asked why they were offering so little, my friend replied that with the EU’s mandatory freedom of movement, the owners of the company "know that they can get away with it".

I'm not sure if he's in a particular niche, but £25k is pretty generous for a graduate tech job unless you're talking about Centre of London. No-one I went to uni with got any more than £20k/year on graduation and we thought we were doing pretty well.

setmefree2 wrote: »

I know tech people who voted Leave because of the downward effect FM is having on their salaries.

Most software jobs are being outsourced to India or China, which is going to be at least as bad with Brexit. At least currently we can hire Europeans to work in the UK, without freedom of movement the only options may be to outsource to Europe or further.

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

Of course I believe the UK needs high tech companies. I also believe that the new UK with some great new trade deals might be an even more attractive place for companies to do business.

How so?

I mean, We might get better trade deals with Aus/US/Canada, but I really struggle to see how they are better for us than trade with EU. I can visit a customer in Paris, or Berlin in little time more than in London. The same can't be said for any of the alternatives.

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

I think your post sums up exactly what is wrong with the EU for so many people. I know (some) business people like to forget it but people live in countries and those countries are their homes; their societies. Countries are not business parks. Businesses can't just stomp all over them without regard for the consequences.

I'm not sure you understand economics; he has to get the staff he needs from somewhere, and most of his trade is export. Why let his business suffer just to avoid the EU?

I hope you move your business to Spain, I personally don't think we need businesses like yours in the UK.

I hope you keep as much of your business in the UK as you can; we're going to need all the help we can get :beer:

System

posh*spice wrote: »

In what world is referring to an employee as a monkey acceptable?

Code monkey is an IT term, not really derogatory. I call myself a code monkey, well, software simian.