Referendum result - Predictions

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

It's not that people are more likely to say leave when asked online but remain on the phone - people answering the question online are different to those answering by telephone.

In what way? It's generally accepted that older people favour Leave and younger people Remain. But I would have thought fewer older people would be accessible online.

Do you know if pollsters phone landlines or Mobiles?

Rinoa

Moby wrote: »

Populus gives Remain 55%, Leave 45%

Another opinion poll just flashed up, also giving Remain the majority of support.
Populous reports that 55% of people surveyed want to stay in the EU, while 45% want to leave.
That’s the biggest gap recorded in the final flurry of polls before today’s vote, as polling expert Mike Smithson explains:
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 The final polling charthttps://t.co/EwJGsAhrDK pic.twitter.com/JHrzclug0Q

Populus have worked on behalf of Remain.

How curious that the pollster in the pay of Remain, has produced the poll with the biggest Remain lead. What are the chances of that happening?

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

In what way? It's generally accepted that older people favour Leave and younger people Remain. But I would have thought fewer older people would be accessible online.

Do you know if pollsters phone landlines or Mobiles?

Apparently remain voters are just harder to get hold of for whatever reason and it's difficult to calculate an adjustment because there's no precedent.

The Facebooks and Twitters are always going to attract more frothers whatever the subject. It's how we got the cybernats - it's really difficult to get angry arguing for no change. I've not seen a single remain poster in a house or by the roadside.

There's a clue in the name silent majority.

tincans6

michaels wrote: »

Amazing looking at the odds history and the Jo Cox intervention. I'm sure it wasn't done as part of any strategy but in terms of the one 'trump card' that we couldn't foresee that turned to result, that may well have been it.

A new low.

Election not even over, and putting Jo Cox and trump card in the same sentence.

Maybe remain was always going to win, after all it has always been the favourite on betfair, and the Scottish referendum saw a swing to the status quo in the 48 hours before the election.

I can see the epithet 'bad loser' being added to the list of unpleasant characteristics of the average Leave vote.

Linda_D_2

chucknorris wrote: »

I'm thinking along the same lines as you, I am cautiously optimistic that common sense will prevail.

Even if common sense does prevail there is no way the government will allow us to leave.

gardner1

tincans6 wrote: »

A new low.

Election not even over, and putting Jo Cox and trump card in the same sentence.

Maybe remain was always going to win, after all it has always been the favourite on betfair, and the Scottish referendum saw a swing to the status quo in the 48 hours before the election.

I can see the epithet 'bad loser' being added to the list of unpleasant characteristics of the average Leave vote.

But it's true...Jo Cox will win it for remain and before you say anything else..would there have been as much press coverage featuring her husband and children if it happened next week

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

Apparently remain voters are just harder to get hold of for whatever reason and it's difficult to calculate an adjustment because there's no precedent.

The Facebooks and Twitters are always going to attract more frothers whatever the subject. It's how we got the cybernats - it's really difficult to get angry arguing for no change. I've not seen a single remain poster in a house or by the roadside.

There's a clue in the name silent majority.

There are Remain tellers outside some polling stations.

Apparently there are people leaving, having voted, and declaring themselves 'undecided'.

Who knows how the 'silent majority' have voted. I guess we'll know soon enough.

michaels

tincans6 wrote: »

A new low.

Election not even over, and putting Jo Cox and trump card in the same sentence.

Maybe remain was always going to win, after all it has always been the favourite on betfair, and the Scottish referendum saw a swing to the status quo in the 48 hours before the election.

I can see the epithet 'bad loser' being added to the list of unpleasant characteristics of the average Leave vote.

I am just looking at the correlation between this graph of betfair odds where remain slipped pretty close to evens (above 1.9) and then reversed coinciding with the Jo Cox murder.

As we all know, causation is not correlation and I am sure remain would have won anyway.

Keep_pedalling

FTSE 250 currently up 1.8%, so the markets are pretty convinced.

I think 56% for remain, and hopefully an end to bickering.

PixelPound

gardner1 wrote: »

But it's true...Jo Cox will win it for remain and before you say anything else..would there have been as much press coverage featuring her husband and children if it happened next week

Well I think Remain would probably have won in any case, but the Jo Cox murder, though more specifically the media coverage of it, will have ensured a bigger swing of undecided or soft leave votes to the Remain camp.

Remain surge back into the lead in wake of Jo Cox murder

From aTelegraph Headline