Referendum result - Predictions

michaels

Rinoa wrote: »

Almost certainly a remain win. Odds are shortening by the hour.

Just one small chance for Leave. All but 1 of the online polls have Leave ahead. Every one of the phone polls have Remain ahead. Why the difference?

Social desirability bias describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." Online you're anonymous, on the phone you speak to a real person. As Leavers are constantly portrayed as racist xenophobes, how many could have told pollsters they will vote remain, but will actually vote Leave in the polling booth?

Amazing looking at the odds history and the Jo Cox intervention. I'm sure it wasn't done as part of any strategy but in terms of the one 'trump card' that we couldn't foresee that turned to result, that may well have been it.

ruggedtoast

67% turnout with 54% to Remain.

StevieJ

Ladbrokes 1/10 for a remain vote Online polls now showing Remain in the lead, I am surprised by that. I guess that means that previous Brexiteers are now turning.

StevieJ

55 remain 45 leave for me.

78% turnout.

Moby

IMO about 65% turnout ........late swing seems to be going Remains way. Undecided's seem to be choosing Remain? My prediction 55% remain 45% out.

StevieJ

SailorSam wrote: »

Rather than just a prediction,does anyone else think an exit poll may be interesting. Then after we've voted it could give us an idea what the official result will be tomorrow morning.
I've just got home, i've handed in my little card. I've voted to get out.

Fortunately the real world is unlikely to reflect the result of an online poll on here which s likely to be far more extreme.

cells

I feel the turnout in Scotland will be very high again, lots of people who never vote in the past voted at their referendum and they will have seen how quick and easy it was so will be likely to vote this time too

Moby

Populus gives Remain 55%, Leave 45%

Another opinion poll just flashed up, also giving Remain the majority of support.
Populous reports that 55% of people surveyed want to stay in the EU, while 45% want to leave.
That’s the biggest gap recorded in the final flurry of polls before today’s vote, as polling expert Mike Smithson explains:
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 The final polling charthttps://t.co/EwJGsAhrDK pic.twitter.com/JHrzclug0Q

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

Just one small chance for Leave. All but 1 of the online polls have Leave ahead. Every one of the phone polls have Remain ahead. Why the difference?

It's not that people are more likely to say leave when asked online but remain on the phone - people answering the question online are different to those answering by telephone.

Like the Scottish referendum people are going to be saying 'but the internet said..', 'but Twitter', 'but Facebook' etc.

As was said yesterday. If you want to know how to predict the result then ignore the polls but ask the people conducting them what they mean or look at the betting markets.

Most polls aren't conducted to help provide a prediction of the future - they're clickbait.

Doozergirl

Moby wrote: »

Populus gives Remain 55%, Leave 45%

Another opinion poll just flashed up, also giving Remain the majority of support.
Populous reports that 55% of people surveyed want to stay in the EU, while 45% want to leave.
That’s the biggest gap recorded in the final flurry of polls before today’s vote, as polling expert Mike Smithson explains:
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016 The final polling charthttps://t.co/EwJGsAhrDK pic.twitter.com/JHrzclug0Q

I thought they weren't allowed to post polls today? Is it from yesterday?

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