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Referendum result - Predictions

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Comments

  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    michaels wrote: »
    Amazing looking at the odds history and the Jo Cox intervention. I'm sure it wasn't done as part of any strategy but in terms of the one 'trump card' that we couldn't foresee that turned to result, that may well have been it.
    The odds started to turn the morning of the murder.. it wasn't just the murder.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 29,133 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    StevieJ wrote: »
    The odds started to turn the morning of the murder.. it wasn't just the murder.

    Did anyone just say it was just the murder? Similarly I suspect very few would say the murder had no impact at all - even those who apparently feel it is sacrilege to link the two things?

    Talking of odds, anyone any idea why brexit has come in from 10:1 this morning to 7:1 now, I had assumed that it would be moving the other way as the day went on.

    What are the currency and vol markets saying?
    I think....
  • Moby
    Moby Posts: 3,917 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Quizzical_Squirrel wrote: »
    Remain 72%
    Leave 28%

    Before the death of the MP, I would have put leave at 37%
    That's surely waaayyy out....It's going to be closer than that??
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Fifth Anniversary Name Dropper Photogenic
    Moby wrote: »
    That's surely waaayyy out....It's going to be closer than that??

    The odds are saying its going to be like that. The bookies not often wrong.

    I think we'll know at 10pm, the exit polls are surely going to show? If they showed 51/49 it could go either way but if they predict say 35/65 and thats the sort of margins we are looking at, there's no way they will be wrong.
  • wymondham
    wymondham Posts: 6,356 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic Mortgage-free Glee!
    Judging by how wrong everyone was on the last election, maybe we've all got it very wrong again??!!

    leave will have it 60% easily! (gulp!)
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    michaels wrote: »
    Did anyone just say it was just the murder? Similarly I suspect very few would say the murder had no impact at all - even those who apparently feel it is sacrilege to link the two things?

    Talking of odds, anyone any idea why brexit has come in from 10:1 this morning to 7:1 now, I had assumed that it would be moving the other way as the day went on.

    What are the currency and vol markets saying?
    Remain were 1/10 but Brexit was 6/1.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • Sapphire
    Sapphire Posts: 4,269 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Debt-free and Proud!
    wymondham wrote: »
    Judging by how wrong everyone was on the last election, maybe we've all got it very wrong again??!!

    leave will have it 60% easily! (gulp!)

    I'll raise you 10, to 70 per cent.

    Apparently pooches are voting as well…:shocked:
  • ruggedtoast
    ruggedtoast Posts: 9,819 Forumite
    I sense a lassitude and aura of failure from the Leavers. I just hope they don't take out their disappointment by smashing up shops, hospitals and schools tomorrow.
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Yes Michaels the ofds on Brexit have shortened
    Remail 1/6 Leave 4/1
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • PixelPound
    PixelPound Posts: 3,059 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Turnout looks to be high, it will be interesting if it is well over 60% as surely harder for the losing side to say its not the will of the people.

    A decisive win for remain, maybe 65%, with people battling through rain to vote.
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