Referendum result - Predictions

kabayiri

Yolina wrote: »

...
Joking and banter aside, I do feel sorry for anyone having to deal with the aftermath of last night's weather.

It's pretty unusual for the North to have the milder weather, but I'd say that has been the case for this spring/summer.

Normal conditions will of course return.

Yolina

kabayiri wrote: »

Normal conditions will of course return.

Not just yet it seems... The Met office have issued another amber warning for thunderstorms and rain for London & the South East today

Rinoa

Almost certainly a remain win. Odds are shortening by the hour.

Just one small chance for Leave. All but 1 of the online polls have Leave ahead. Every one of the phone polls have Remain ahead. Why the difference?

Social desirability bias describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." Online you're anonymous, on the phone you speak to a real person. As Leavers are constantly portrayed as racist xenophobes, how many could have told pollsters they will vote remain, but will actually vote Leave in the polling booth?

Rinoa

I reckon the turnout will be very high.

I'm a lazy voter. Haven't voted for 30 years due to the outcome in my constituency being known before a vote is cast. But today I voted because my vote could make a difference. There must be millions in a similar situation.

tincans6

Rinoa wrote: »

Just one small chance for Leave. All but 1 of the online polls have Leave ahead. Every one of the phone polls have Remain ahead. Why the difference?

Social desirability bias describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." Online you're anonymous, on the phone you speak to a real person. As Leavers are constantly portrayed as racist xenophobes, how many could have told pollsters they will vote remain, but will actually vote Leave in the polling booth?

Except YOUGOV have found no such evidence of Shy Bexiter's.

In fact - Brexiters seem anything but shy.

Clutching at Straws me thinks.

Doozergirl

tincans6 wrote: »

Except YOUGOV have found no such evidence of Shy Bexiter's.

In fact - Brexiters seem anything but shy.

Clutching at Straws me thinks.

My social media feed of late certainly suggests that Brexiters are more vocal. Tide seems to have turned this morning though and the remainers are coming out of the woodwork and posting photos!

I'm with quite a few people here on 53% remain, 47% leave. I think we'll get a high turnout as Pastures New has announced that she will vote and I never thought I'd see that day. I'd like to see 70%.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

Almost certainly a remain win. Odds are shortening by the hour.

Just one small chance for Leave. All but 1 of the online polls have Leave ahead. Every one of the phone polls have Remain ahead. Why the difference?

The methodological difference is that if you are polled online and pick don't know then that's generally the end of it. If you are polled via telephone and pick don't know then normally there's a second prompting question.

As to whether that prompting question generates a more accurate response or a random one that hides don't knows or won't votes I leave to your belief/prejudice/empathy.

kabayiri

tincans6 wrote: »

Except YOUGOV have found no such evidence of Shy Bexiter's.
...

Exactly how do YouGov find out about people who have a propensity to fib when questioned?

Do they ambush them? Wire them up to lie detectors? Perhaps they ask a sneaky proxy referendum question ... eg "Do you think Luke Skywalker was right to leave the Rebel Alliance?"

I don't think YouGov predicted the surprise UKIP vote in places like the NE during the last GE either.

SailorSam

Rather than just a prediction,does anyone else think an exit poll may be interesting. Then after we've voted it could give us an idea what the official result will be tomorrow morning.
I've just got home, i've handed in my little card. I've voted to get out.

mrginge

63% Turnout
54 remain / 46 leave

Ins -
Scotland
NI
SE England
Midlands
Overseas votes

Outs -
Wales
NE England
NW England
SW England