Referendum result - Predictions

Generali

mrginge wrote: »

Well you just hit on the actual problem. It's like the international supermarket federation telling Asda, sainsburies, tesco etc that they *have* to give up some market share to Aldi and pay them a big pile of cash every year just so that Aldi can then build their own company up and steal even more market share in 20 years?

Isn't it quite natural that after a while Asda, sainsburies and tesco will say stuff this and want to leave the international supermarket federation?

Not really because that assumes that it's a zero sum game.

The reality, as the Americans found out post-WW2 is that if your trading partners have stronger economies then they can buy your goods while you buy theirs.

It's not like world GDP is 1 and we then have to decide how to divide it up. By getting more efficient and trading, as has happened since about 1750 in England, GDP can grow.

One of the saddest things for me about the Leave campaign is that it sets up countries in Europe as being only competitors, never partners or friends. I think it's horrible and is likely to be the lasting scar on the UK left by this campaign.

JimmyTheWig

My guess is 57% Remain, 43% Leave.
74% turnout.

michaels

JimmyTheWig wrote: »

My guess is 57% Remain, 43% Leave.
74% turnout.

You can get 40:1 on the turnout being over 65% at Betfair so I would lump some money on if you really expect that (market is around 55%)

It is also saying 'par' for remain is 54.5% but leave is 6:1

chucknorris

michaels wrote: »

You can get 40:1 on the turnout being over 65% at Betfair so I would lump some money on if you really expect that (market is around 55%)

It is also saying 'par' for remain is 54.5% but leave is 6:1

You must have misread that market, the 65.01% to 70% band is the current favourite at only 2.6.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

You can get 40:1 on the turnout being over 65% at Betfair so I would lump some money on if you really expect that (market is around 55%)

It is also saying 'par' for remain is 54.5% but leave is 6:1

I reckon 39-1 on that sort of turnout is pretty decent given that the Scots referendum was something like 85%.

Yolina

Since we're doing weather updates: heavy storm last night until about 3am, followed by more 'normal' rain, it was fairly bad in East/SE London plenty of roads are still flooded, so are some stations or rail lines.
I have a plastic container out on my terrace, there's over 4" of water in that this morning that wasn't there yesterday...

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

I reckon 39-1 on that sort of turnout is pretty decent given that the Scots referendum was something like 85%.

He has misquoted, over 65% is actually long odds on.

mrginge

mwpt wrote: »

No, it is not like that at all.

oh ok then. Thanks for pointing that out in such precise detail.

westernpromise

I'm another for 53:47 Remain:Leave, but I think turnout will be about 67%. I'd be quite surprised if it's over 70%.

warwicktiger

59% turnout
54 remain
46 leave