Referendum result - Predictions

Filo25

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What does everyone think the final voting split will be.

Personally I think Leave needed a clear lead in the polls going into polling day to win this one, that looked likely a week ago but has pretty much evaporated now.

I will go for Remain 53 Leave 47.

Generali

Storms in the most pro-Remain part of England if not the UK doesn't bode well for the Remainiacs. My feeling is that as the polls have been tight for the last week and anyone that is going to jump at the last minute is going to jump to Remain it'll be about the same as the Scottish referendum, i.e. a walkover. 45:55 or thereabouts. 20% more Remain than Leave.

In most 2 horse races, e.g. the US Presidential race, that would be a landslide.

vivatifosi

I think it is too close to call and honestly haven't got a clue. You think you have a handle on the polls, then hear about the undecideds following the status quo... so we're in... then you hear that there are people who are quiet Brexiters and won't admit to such leanings... and we're out. I'm genuinely confused.

wymondham

I honestly cant tell and would hate to guess, just off to vote now...

I was speaking to couple yesterday who really didn't know what to do (I kept quiet!). They muttered it through and then said they probably vote remain as scared about the results of change. They then said they may not vote depending on how their shopping trip went..... Nice to see passion!

edit: just voted, polling station deserted... light rain....

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

Storms in the most pro-Remain part of England if not the UK doesn't bode well for the Remainiacs. My feeling is that as the polls have been tight for the last week and anyone that is going to jump at the last minute is going to jump to Remain it'll be about the same as the Scottish referendum, i.e. a walkover. 45:55 or thereabouts. 20% more Remain than Leave.
...

I think in Scotland it will be very different as Nicola's gang keep telling us.

Not a risky old 45:55.

No. It will be a massive 43:57.

Shakey will remind us all that this is because there is a different dna up there; a freedom; a spirit...

...or maybe they are used to bad weather.

chucknorris

Filo25 wrote: »

What does everyone think the final voting split will be.

Personally I think Leave needed a clear lead in the polls going into polling day to win this one, that looked likely a week ago but has pretty much evaporated now.

I will go for Remain 53 Leave 47.

I'm thinking along the same lines as you, I am cautiously optimistic that common sense will prevail.

mrginge

Generali wrote: »

Storms in the most pro-Remain part of England if not the UK doesn't bode well for the Remainiacs. My feeling is that as the polls have been tight for the last week and anyone that is going to jump at the last minute is going to jump to Remain it'll be about the same as the Scottish referendum, i.e. a walkover. 45:55 or thereabouts. 20% more Remain than Leave.

In most 2 horse races, e.g. the US Presidential race, that would be a landslide.

Probably about right.

The big question for me really is how do the Tories (mainly) and labour react to the demands of the 45%.
They can't just carry on the same, as at least a good proportion of the leavers will have long memories. Speaking personally, as someone who would be expected to vote Tory they've pretty much lost me now without making some serious changes.
A GE may not be too far off if the eurosceptics in the Tories don't get their way. They probably will because which sitting Tory will want to be defending a slim majority in a constitency that voted leave? In three years they've got a chance, but in the next six months?
We know labour doesn't want to win elections, but the Tories are quite keen so a lurch to greater euroscepticism is inevitable whether the remainers like it or not. the immigration issue is unlikely to go anywhere unless that 330k starts to drop and that's the big problem that just will not go away....

Generali

mrginge wrote: »

Probably about right.

The big question for me really is how do the Tories (mainly) and labour react to the demands of the 45%.
They can't just carry on the same, as at least a good proportion of the leavers will have long memories. Speaking personally, as someone who would be expected to vote Tory they've pretty much lost me now without making some serious changes.
A GE may not be too far off if the eurosceptics in the Tories don't get their way. They probably will because which sitting Tory will want to be defending a slim majority in a constitency that voted leave? In three years they've got a chance, but in the next six months?
We know labour doesn't want to win elections, but the Tories are quite keen so a lurch to greater euroscepticism is inevitable whether the remainers like it or not. the immigration issue is unlikely to go anywhere unless that 330k starts to drop and that's the big problem that just will not go away....

My feeling is that the EU 'gets it' to a large extent and that slow change is likely.

The 'problem' with immigration is really one of success: immigrants aren't going to go to a country that is failing and has no jobs, immigrants want to go somewhere thriving that has lots of opportunities. As long as the UK and London in particular is a success, immigrants will continue to be drawn there. The way to stop the migrants is to make the economies that people are leaving able to provide good jobs to their population.

That isn't going to be a quick process but by paying for infrastructure improvements and having things like the Single Market that make trade incredibly simple then hopefully places like Poland will end up much more stable and better able to provide for themselves.

TBH I think that the EU is probably the best way to drag these countries up. Look at the huge improvements in the economies of places like Ireland, Spain, Portugal and even Greece since the 1980s. I went to uni with a Portugeezer who was telling me in 1990 that his Grandmother's village had just been electrified and next up was going to be a metalled road going there from the nearest main road.

It is amazing how poor many of these places were just 25 years ago and I have every faith that the EU can do the same for places like Poland and Czechia (look it up) and later on places like Romania and Bulgaria.

Soot2006

V busy polling station here this morning.
No rain right now but humid and feels 20+ since 6am. Hoping for a high turnout, as only then will the results be representative.
Going by the posters in windows, I am predicting a strong "Remain" vote in my neighbourhood; however, I wouldn't even dare to make a national prediction. It really could swing either way and I don't trust the polls.

mrginge

Generali wrote: »

My feeling is that the EU 'gets it' to a large extent and that slow change is likely.

The 'problem' with immigration is really one of success: immigrants aren't going to go to a country that is failing and has no jobs, immigrants want to go somewhere thriving that has lots of opportunities. As long as the UK and London in particular is a success, immigrants will continue to be drawn there. The way to stop the migrants is to make the economies that people are leaving able to provide good jobs to their population.

That isn't going to be a quick process but by paying for infrastructure improvements and having things like the Single Market that make trade incredibly simple then hopefully places like Poland will end up much more stable and better able to provide for themselves.

TBH I think that the EU is probably the best way to drag these countries up. Look at the huge improvements in the economies of places like Ireland, Spain, Portugal and even Greece since the 1980s. I went to uni with a Portugeezer who was telling me in 1990 that his Grandmother's village had just been electrified and next up was going to be a metalled road going there from the nearest main road.

It is amazing how poor many of these places were just 25 years ago and I have every faith that the EU can do the same for places like Poland and Czechia (look it up) and later on places like Romania and Bulgaria.

Well you just hit on the actual problem. It's like the international supermarket federation telling Asda, sainsburies, tesco etc that they *have* to give up some market share to Aldi and pay them a big pile of cash every year just so that Aldi can then build their own company up and steal even more market share in 20 years?

Isn't it quite natural that after a while Asda, sainsburies and tesco will say stuff this and want to leave the international supermarket federation?

mwpt

mrginge wrote: »

Well you just hit on the actual problem. It's like the international supermarket federation telling Asda, sainsburies, tesco etc that they *have* to give up some market share to Aldi and pay them a big pile of cash every year just so that Aldi can then build their own company up and steal even more market share in 20 years?

Isn't it quite natural that after a while Asda, sainsburies and tesco will say stuff this and want to leave the international supermarket federation?

No, it is not like that at all.