The EU: IN or OUT?

teddysmum

I recall following the progress of a petition (can't remember what it was about),but the 'debate' consisted of a small number of MPs having a discussion in a small back room and then rejecting the appeal.

teddysmum

The problem with the published polls (and not just those on the referendum) , is that they are based on too small samples . The opinion of one thousand cannot , with any confidence, be taken as an illustration of the opinion of multimillions, especially as the population sampled is likely to be biased (eg people with plenty of time to do paid surveys/ readers of a particular newspaper) and not truly random.

bowlhead99

talexuser wrote: »

Javid on Marr show refused to say there would now be the recession he predicted during the campaign or all the terrible consequences he promised from a leave vote... because he's going to prevent it by talking to a lot of business people.

And politicians wonder why they have an image problem?

The Marr interview was ridiculous though:
- basically Marr saying "when is tax going up and spending being slashed, that's what you promised, you said there was going to be a recession and contraction in GDP and we would probably have to cut back on spending and/or increase taxes to plug the gap. You also said inflation up and half a million jobs lost in next couple of years, so now we're a couple of days in, can you now guarantee us we will get that please because that's what you promised!".

- and the business secretary trying not to explicitly say "well, look you idiot I'm not going to reiterate live on air that there is now definitely going to be a big recession through a period of several years of uncertainty - because then all the businesses will stop hiring and investing, which is going to make the problem ten times worse. Stop trying to make me do that you cretin. I'm going to talk to businesses to reassure them that we will try and make it work, the vote is done now so we have to work together to stop things going down the pan" - but Marr just wouldn't shut up about it.

Clearly as any credible political or economic journalist would understand, reading between the lines Javid is pleading with him, "...I am trying to go to the businesses to tell them that despite the public voting for massive short term economic uncertainty and the businesses finding their markets facing instability, and the fact they've generally got massively heightened reluctance to hire and invest because of the risk of an impending recession, they should look past that and go ahead and hire and invest anyway because if they don't we're all going to be !!!!ed....

...stop asking me if there is definitely going to be a recession and we should expect a huge loss of jobs. Because although I told you that in my campaigning, when all the smart economists forecasted it, the reason for me publicising those economic forecasts was when we were trying to stop people voting for an exit and self-inflicted economic pain. It made sense to be truthful and warn people of what the experts predicted. Now people have voted, it's too late for my warnings - or the experts' warnings - of recession to actually save us from it, by steering the vote...

...As there is now literally no benefit to the economy from me telling the economy that we all expect it to crash, now is the time to say (whether I believe it or not) there will not necessarily be a recession and if we work together smartly we might have a chance of saving ourselves from one...

...If you make me say on air as an official spokesperson for the government that we still believe that growth is going through the floor and inflation and unemployment is going up by a few percent, the consequential reaction by industry will be to cut back on recruitment, staff retention, purchasing and investment, and that will contribute to the unemployment and growth problems happening. We have to try and make it work..."

That sounds like common sense to me and does not mean Javid is an evil Project-Fear monger who was lying about the bad economic consequences of voting out.

Now we have voted out and are preparing to take those consequences, one of the few things that can help keep us out of recession is people trying to get on with business as if everything was normal. Albeit, some of them will go bust if they do that because everything isn't normal and for their own self-preservation they do have to adapt to the new normal by being much more cautious given the likely demand constraints and higher costs over coming years. But the more of them that are cautious and scale back plans and lay people off, the worse it gets, so we can't afford to discourage them from doing business.

So, if you look at the post - election day attitudes:

Farage can now say with impunity that the silly £350m a week claim was not his claim, but someone else in Leave's, and it's not factual, but at least it was a means to an end. He can admit it was a lie that served his purpose.

Someone else in the Leave camp can say that Farage's immigrant buses were not theirs, and were horrendous and not factual, but at least it was a means to an end. They can admit it was a lie.

By contrast, the truth that GBP would weaken and the economy would face multiple years of uncertainty is something that the government had NOT lied about: it was forecast by most credible economists who are not changing their tune, and all evidence is that GBP has indeed started to weaken, more QE on the horizon, share prices of UK-facing businesses taken a hit, and international businesses threatening to relocate or scale back pending the resolution of single market access. But the government don't want to say "hey, we're all screwed for a while, you should stop coming to invest here", they need to say 'it might be OK'. That attitude to 'change tune' is not the same sort of 'backtrack' on some of the lies and scaremongering that Leave campaigners are doing.

IMHO.

LHW99

United we stand, divided we fall ........

Pity the EU hadn't read that...

Greece comes to mind, not to mention David Cameron asking for renegotiations and being sent back with nothing much.
There are now a lot of EU politicians saying they need to change the way it operates, and reflect the worries of the citizens.

Maybe if they had recognised that sooner, the question of Leave wouldn't have even come up.

Nellybee

In 1975 our parents voted to join EEC a common market that seemed to be a good idea.I had 2 grandfathers who fought in the second world war both survived many a brave man didnt. If they came back now they would say why all the loss of life ,why did we fight to see some politicians trying to give the country away to the very thing we were trying to stop .No one telling us what to do ,our country being ruled by some one else,others making our laws it goes on and on .Them brave men would be turning in there graves if they could see this.The young people of the uk may think its us oldies ruining the country but look back to 1975 if our parents could see what would have happened they would have voted a different way.Europe as got to big wants to rule everything we do and more .Its a tradgedy waiting to happen it will implode on itself i for one am happy we will not be a part of it.

talexuser

bowlhead99 wrote: »

I'm not going to reiterate live on air that there is now definitely going to be a big recession through a period of several years of uncertainty

I agree, but he could have said our job is now to work through the market turbulence we predicted and make the best of it by not panicking.
The biggest worry is surely the City being deprived of working in Euros, and all that going to Frankfurt or similar. There are already rumours of jobs going abroad. If the City cash cow gets hit then government revenues will suffer big time and more austerity will surely follow?

ManofLeisure_2

This looks interesting .....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07kgr9g

Missus_Hyde

Nellybee wrote: »

In 1975 our parents voted to join EEC a common market that seemed to be a good idea.I had 2 grandfathers who fought in the second world war both survived many a brave man didnt. If they came back now they would say why all the loss of life ,why did we fight to see some politicians trying to give the country away to the very thing we were trying to stop .No one telling us what to do ,our country being ruled by some one else,others making our laws it goes on and on .Them brave men would be turning in there graves if they could see this.The young people of the uk may think its us oldies ruining the country but look back to 1975 if our parents could see what would have happened they would have voted a different way.Europe as got to big wants to rule everything we do and more .Its a tradgedy waiting to happen it will implode on itself i for one am happy we will not be a part of it.

In 1975 I voted 'No', even though it was supposedly a Common Market for trading which was being proposed. Nothing that the European Parliament has done since has made me regret that decision. I've never liked the idea of being part of a European Super State and like it even less now.

The democratic vote then was to join, which I accepted, although I didn't agree with it. However, I don't recall having a hissy fit, moaning that as a young person (which I was then!) the older generation were being so selfish, nor expecting to have another vote because the voting hadn't gone the way I'd wished it, nor been thoroughly insulting about folks who had voted to join, etc.,etc., etc.

Ifts

Second EU referendum petition investigated for fraud:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

blutto

This guy is clearly for remain and has sour grapes on the verdict!

Look I have seen young people vote out,I have seen on TV a few young Black people vote out,I saw Asian people vote out wore badges on,just see how close it was in Hounslow for example! It's a NONsENSE all this about everyone who is a graduate or intelligent voted REMAIN! Many young people voted out and many graduates voted leave as well! Maybe not the majority but no way near this !!!!!!!! of the making some are trying to say.Proably 55/45 !

On another note,Labour is falling apart and again this time the Liberal Elite just do not get it! Their own core vote voted in MASS for leave up in their Northern heartlands,they have learnt fcukall! Cannot except they did not want what the So-called educated Elite wanted,oh yeah this so called Elite have got it wrong a majority of the time,ie .selling gold at its lowest rate from the Bank of England,letting the banks rule themselves and nearly bankrupted the Uk and many others,what a laugh! :rotfl:

I think Labour wants to cast aside the North now as believe they have lost this territory to UKIP and Scotland to SNP! They now are moving towards being just a liberal urban party that represents City Centres and the areas that LUVViES live! You will never win elections with that strategy!:rotfl: