If we vote to Remain what happens?

Conrad

michaels wrote: »

I know I am blinkered in this debate but I think it is much easier for exit to make a positive case than remain because those whole-heartedly in favour will vote remain anyway and those in the middle are put off rather than motivated by the thought of 'a glorious future within the united states of europe'

Leave have a great task, it wont be easy because people tend to fear the new.


I'm a lover of factual films and documentaries and could give hundreds of examples from history demonstrating peoples natural dismissal of the new, and this particularly applies to the establishment.


Just 3 examples will have to do;


Harrison, a carpenter solved the centuries old longitude problem, but for many years the establishment refused to listen.


Bill Gates - watch the film - in the early years the computer establishment and science community shunned him as a dreamer.


Bletchley Park - Colossus computer which went on to crack the enigma code - same thing again, the establishment refused this 'new fangled nonsense' over and again, but like all pioneers the inventors persisted against all the odds.


Many more examples, from Radar to flight, steam engines to sewer systems - the establishment always rejects




BREXIT FEELS JUST LIKE THIS. The cosy establishment with their herd-think tendency simply filters out all the many positive possibilities, the trade deals, the alliances, the Commonwealth, the fishing grounds, the list is endless


It's so hard getting people to imagine a new vision of Britian but once independence happens they would wonder why on earth they worried so. Many Americans were frightened of being independent from Britain once.

Generali

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Interesting, I would say those in the middle are motivated by the thought of the status quo and not what at times appears to be a big gamble.

Mr Hammer, meet Ms Nail-Head.

Regardless of how you feel about the EU, Britons have a pretty sweet life. People don't go to bed hungry or be repressed or die from entirely preventable diseases by-and-large. Things could get much worse but they are unlikely to get much better.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

That Sir, is me Sir taken a couple of weeks ago - that's where I sit all day, my desk in the background, with the window onto the high street.


I'd like others to follow suit - I feel seeing anonymous posters can give one a different take on them - in the case of my mug-shot>> 'who's that effing turnip head'. I have more hair than that really - looks like a dog poo'd on me

Good to see you!
I won't follow suit though...my mugshot would break MSE forums beyond repair for sure.
Once again, apologies for the off topic.

Conrad

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Interesting, I would say those in the middle are motivated by the thought of the status quo and not what at times appears to be a big gamble.

That's a very credible stance, and I fully get this - why take a chance when what we have isn't too bad.


For me though it's really about grasping a once in a lifetime chance and just having a rock solid faith in our ability to sculpt an amazing outcome.


There truly is not a thing to worry about - just keep in mind at all times that certain EU nations sell us a big solid chunk of their output, and there is not the slightest chance they would inflict self harm by increasing their prices - EU unemployment is priority one


On the 24th June you would hear EU leaders congratulating Britain and looking forwards to forging a new and vital positive relationship - there is not a chance they would deliver a negative message as it would harm everyone

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

Leave have a great task, it wont be easy because people tend to fear the new.


I'm a lover of factual films and documentaries and could give hundreds of examples from history demonstrating peoples natural dismissal of the new, and this particularly applies to the establishment.


Just 3 examples will have to do;


Harrison, a carpenter solved the centuries old longitude problem, but for many years the establishment refused to listen.


Bill Gates - watch the film - in the early years the computer establishment and science community shunned him as a dreamer.


Bletchley Park - Colossus computer which went on to crack the enigma code - same thing again, the establishment refused this 'new fangled nonsense' over and again, but like all pioneers the inventors persisted against all the odds.


Many more examples, from Radar to flight, steam engines to sewer systems - the establishment always rejects




BREXIT FEELS JUST LIKE THIS. The cosy establishment with their herd-think tendency simply filters out all the many positive possibilities, the trade deals, the alliances, the Commonwealth, the fishing grounds, the list is endless


It's so hard getting people to imagine a new vision of Britian but once independence happens they would wonder why on earth they worried so. Many Americans were frightened of being independent from Britain once.

To put cinematic triumphs to one side for a moment, how much better do you think the economy could get over the next decade or two as a result of a Brexit. People live a pretty sweet life in the UK but how much better could it be?

A grand a year better off (4%), two grand (8%). Five grand (20%)??

A problem that the Brexit campaign faces is that people find a loss about 2.5x harder than a gain so to gain a grand (4%) people would be prepared to risk, on average, a maximum of £250. There are many who simply wouldn't risk a single thing in order to have a possible gain (look at the number of people that basically hold all their discretionary wealth in cash and their home).

Conrad

When you see national flags of independent nations being carried by teams in Brazil this summer, will you as Cleg implies be thinking "who the heck is that 'isolated' nation"?


Will you see the flag of Japan or Australia, Canada or NZ and think "ha that's one of those isolated, dreadful, unsafe nations with no influence Clegg warned us about"?

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

To put cinematic triumphs to one side for a moment, how much better do you think the economy could get over the next decade or two as a result of a Brexit. People live a pretty sweet life in the UK but how much better could it be?

A grand a year better off (4%), two grand (8%). Five grand (20%)??

A problem that the Brexit campaign faces is that people find a loss about 2.5x harder than a gain so to gain a grand (4%) people would be prepared to risk, on average, a maximum of £250. There are many who simply wouldn't risk a single thing in order to have a possible gain (look at the number of people that basically hold all their discretionary wealth in cash and their home).

That's one of the best points I've seen, and now you remind me of it, something I learned years ago when I was in training.


Mmm, will be bloody hard to get people to envision enough upside to want to leave.


At the start of all this I said it would probably come down to a personal emotional response.


As such I still think Remain will win it, unless Boris or someone pulls off a Churchillian moment that raises people consciousness. Gove tonight - everyone's out on a Friday so a mad move


Farage is going to come up the Thames with a fleet of 60 fishing boats on the 17th, this sort of thing will change minds

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

That's one of the best points I've seen, and now you remind me of it, something I learned years ago when I was in training.

It's an absolute basic of behavioural economics. If you do the job I think you do you should learn as much as you can about the subject as it could make you a very rich man indeed.

Conrad wrote: »

Mmm, will be bloody hard to get people to envision enough upside to want to leave.


At the start of all this I said it would probably come down to a personal emotional response.

Yup. Risking a quid to gain a quid isn't going to be anything like enough and it's why the Remain side have gone for Project Fear and why Leave have been utter fools for going down the same road.

Conrad wrote: »

As such I still think Remain will win it, unless Boris or someone pulls off a Churchillian moment that raises people consciousness. Gove tonight - everyone's out on a Friday so a mad move

You'd be surprised. I'm not that old (mid-40s) and I go out for a big Friday night out a few times each year. As I don't really go out and get smashed any more it's just as easy to go out on a Tuesday and on a Friday it's hard and expensive to get a babysitter.

There are an awful lot of middle-aged parents out there that don't want to start with a bill of £100 for 2 taxis and a babysitter before they've had a drink or a bite to eat.

Conrad wrote: »

Farage is going to come up the Thames with a fleet of 60 fishing boats on the 17th, this sort of thing will change minds

I guess we'll see but it sounds an awful lot like a gimmick.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

You'd be surprised. I'm not that old (mid-40s) and I go out for a big Friday night out a few times each year. As I don't really go out and get smashed any more it's just as easy to go out on a Tuesday and on a Friday it's hard and expensive to get a babysitter.

There are an awful lot of middle-aged parents out there that don't want to start with a bill of £100 for 2 taxis and a babysitter before they've had a drink or a bite to eat.

.

Too true, this is a rare lads night out for me - I'm 49 and we're all about spent by midnight - last time 2 of us fell asleep in the Indian (oohh err)


I'm hoping Weatherspoons (sp) have a TV with Gove on it tonight but I think they don't have TV's (no music for sure)


I like getting fairly smashed I must admit - I can access my artistic side so much better

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

I like getting fairly smashed I must admit - I can access my artistic side so much better

While I am still at one with my inner drunk, public drunkenness simply isn't tolerated in Aus in the way it is in the UK.

If you own or run a bar and serve me when I am visibly drunk, if I leave the pub and am hit by a bus you have a civil and criminal liability and that liability isn't just theoretical.

I have an acquaintance in Aus that is deaf and he is often denied service in bars because he slurs a little and most bouncers are too dumb to understand the difference between drunk and stinking of booze and deaf and not smelling of drink at all.