If we vote to Remain what happens?

michaels

A lot has been made of the Brexit campaign's inability to paint a picture of what will happen if we vote for Brexit.

Turning the question on its head, can those supporting remain claim 'It ill be just like it is now' or actually will we see a very different EU continue to emerge, perhaps even faster, as a result of a UK Remain vote?

1) The EU is by default expansionist
There are no incentives for those who run the EU to reduce the scope of its activities, only to increase them so from that we can have a pretty good idea of the direction of travel.

2) The single market requires tax harmonization
It is also fairly clear form the Tampon tax fiasco that the EU sees differential tax rates between member states as being incompatible with the single market so expect the ability to set corporation, income and other taxes to be centralised with no veto possible as it is part of the 'core single market'.

3) Monetary Union Is a stepping stone towards Fiscal union
And of course monetary union was enacted not with the belief that a common monetary policy could be maintained without a common fiscal authority but because as is self evident that is not the case and thus the common currency was seen by those who signed up for it as simply a stepping stone towards full fiscal integration (even if of course they did not dare tell their populations this). Those outside the Euro who think this will not impact them are in for a rude surprise, EU rules will make their economic life more and more difficult (why not mandate that EUR companies debt can not be traded outside or EUR countries to damage London for example), and when any country outside the EUR runs into a crisis (foreign indebtedness for the UK for example given our rising population induced balance of trade deficit) no doubt the price to be paid for a bailout will be to adopt the Euro.

4) A UK Remain vote will shift the dynamic towards integration
After all don't forget having rejected Brexit our negotiating position will be hugely weaker as we will no longer be able to threaten withdrawal if we get steam-rollered in negotiations.

HappyMJ

2 will never happen. Each member state government will always set local taxes. A harmonised corporation tax rate cannot work...same with income and other taxes. Each country gives different benefits such as the UK with the NHS so we need slightly higher taxes to pay for that. For that to work you would also have to harmonise all benefits as well and as we all know £100 a week in the UK doesn't go anywhere near as far as it does in Poland where you could live quite comfortably on £100 a week.

We won't ever be joining the Euro. We need to ability to control our own economy without being brought down by others. Being in or out isn't going to change that.

kabayiri

IMO, we either centralise functions or adapt our systems so that they follow a common European model.

An obvious example is health. Nobody in Europe is going to adopt the NHS model, so perhaps we should move to a system like they have in France?

N1AK

michaels wrote: »

4) A UK Remain vote will shift the dynamic towards integration
After all don't forget having rejected Brexit our negotiating position will be hugely weaker as we will no longer be able to threaten withdrawal if we get steam-rollered in negotiations.

Rather unsurprisingly these are the typical brexiter fears (aside from the main one: immigration) dressed up in new clothes and entirely lacking any evidence as usual.

Your first point is incredibly inane.

Your third point, if true, would make a mockery of the leave campaigns claims that we'll get a great deal with the EU if we leave. Why should we be afraid of the EU making things awkward for us if we stay in, but not be far more worried that they'd be even more inclined to harm us if we chose to leave.

Your fourth is equally weak. We can always chose to leave in the future, it's a blatant lie to imply otherwise. There is literally no rational case to support the claim that the EU will become more focused on full integration than it currently is if we chose to stay.

michaels

N1AK wrote: »

Rather unsurprisingly these are the typical brexiter fears (aside from the main one: immigration) dressed up in new clothes and entirely lacking any evidence as usual.

Your first point is incredibly inane.

Your third point, if true, would make a mockery of the leave campaigns claims that we'll get a great deal with the EU if we leave. Why should we be afraid of the EU making things awkward for us if we stay in, but not be far more worried that they'd be even more inclined to harm us if we chose to leave.

Your fourth is equally weak. We can always chose to leave in the future, it's a blatant lie to imply otherwise. There is literally no rational case to support the claim that the EU will become more focused on full integration than it currently is if we chose to stay.

So your argument is that although since its inception as a coal and steel agreement to its incarnation as an organisation that can, for example, set Greek domestic policies, the direction of travel has been exclusively towards more Europe; we just happen to be at a high point and that there will be no further changes towards more integration, so those voting to remain can do so safe in the knowledge that they are voting for the status quo?

Johnsmith2016

If we vote remain personally think there will be a host of changes in June.
1 . One to stop us ever having a referendum again.
2. European army.
3. Social union - to control our pensions, benefits and minimim wage.
4. Turkey will be allowed to join
5 ukraine will be allowed to join.
6 TTIP will be ushered in.
7. They will equalise vat across europe.
8. We will take more migrants every year
9. Migrants will gain EU passports after 5 years .

michaels

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

If we vote remain personally think there will be a host of changes in June.
1 . One to stop us ever having a referendum again.
2. European army.
3. Social union - to control our pensions, benefits and minimim wage.
4. Turkey will be allowed to join
5 ukraine will be allowed to join.
6 TTIP will be ushered in.
7. They will equalise vat across europe.
8. We will take more migrants every year
9. Migrants will gain EU passports after 5 years .

Some of those might happen even if not in the suggested timescale but personally I am turned off by scare-mongering from both sides. I agree it is almost certainly the best way to win votes but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

mayonnaise

There is absolutely no appetite whatsoever, neither with the British public, nor with any of the mainstream political parties to seek further integration on the fiscal or monetary side. And there won't be any appetite for it for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, to the question of what will happen it we vote remain; it will be business as usual, a thriving UK economy at the heart of Europe and the world, but at the same time outside the more tricky bits like EMU and Schengen. The best of both worlds. :T

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

Some of those might happen even if not in the suggested timescale but personally I am turned off by scare-mongering from both sides. I agree it is almost certainly the best way to win votes but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

You're turned off by all the scaremongering, but your opening post is full of it.

N1AK

michaels wrote: »

So your argument is that although since its inception as a coal and steel agreement to its incarnation as an organisation that can, for example, set Greek domestic policies, the direction of travel has been exclusively towards more Europe; we just happen to be at a high point and that there will be no further changes towards more integration, so those voting to remain can do so safe in the knowledge that they are voting for the status quo?

Ahhhh a straw-man the much loved crutch of the brexiter how novel.

Even if that was my position it would still be far less laughable than thinking that we Europe would punish us for staying in Europe but would willingly give us a universally favourable deal if we decide to leave which actually is what you're claiming.

N1AK

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

If we vote remain personally think there will be a host of changes in June.
1 . One to stop us ever having a referendum again.
2. European army.
3. Social union - to control our pensions, benefits and minimim wage.
4. Turkey will be allowed to join
5 ukraine will be allowed to join.
6 TTIP will be ushered in.
7. They will equalise vat across europe.
8. We will take more migrants every year
9. Migrants will gain EU passports after 5 years .

Given the fact you couldn't even comprehend what was happening with Turkey it doesn't surprise me that you'd predict things as utterly ridiculous as this. Why not add that we'll all be speaking German, we'll be ruled Führer Merkel, and our children will be required to join the Hitler Youth; you'd only look marginally more detached from reality.

Your first point alone perfectly sums up the level of delusion of so many brexiters and the rank hypocrisy of the brexiters criticising remain campaigners for making arguments based on fear.