If we vote to Remain what happens?

antrobus

Rinoa wrote: »

...As most of our exports are to non EU countries anyway, they are subject to a 4% tariff right now so this is clearly not a problem. ....

Exports are not subject to a 4% tariff.

I seem to recall that someone did claim that if we left the EU then the extra tariff costs on exports to the EU would be around 4%.

The tariff costs on exports that were not to the EU would depend on the tariffs that those destination countries charged. I'm not aware of anyone who has calculated the average tariff on those trade flows, and membership of the EU would only effect those tariffs in the short term to the extent that leaving the EU meant that the UK lost the benefit of any extant EU trade deal with those countries.

CLAPTON

kabayiri wrote: »

IMO, if we can't attract the higher value jobs and industry to these shores, we will continue to fall down the productivity league table.

I worry that Cameron will continue to manage the net migration figures by constraining people outside the EU; people who we need, like you point out.

He still won't hit his tens of thousands original target. It was a stupid commitment at the time.

we import 600,000 people each year: surely we are already attracting key enough people and yet you say we are falling down the productivity leagues.
How many more people do you want to come?
Many we don't use our existing people resources properly.

Generali

This is a glimpse into the tariff rates set by Australia:

https://www.border.gov.au/Busi/Tari/2007

If, for example, I wish to import a pig or a reptile skin which has been tanned I pay a 5% duty. If, instead, I wish to import a raw pig skin or indeed a raw or tanned sheep skin then I will pay no tariff.

This is the world that Brexit will plunge the UK into. Every single line of this crap will have to be negotiated with Brussels and everyone else the UK wishes to trade with and the thought that it could be done in 2 years is risible.

setmefree2

Generali wrote: »

Are you seriously still banging that drum? How the heck to you think Turkey can join the EU in a few months. It takes years to run through the processes required.

And we have a veto.

Rinoa

antrobus wrote: »

Exports are not subject to a 4% tariff.

I seem to recall that someone did claim that if we left the EU then the extra tariff costs on exports to the EU would be around 4%.

The tariff costs on exports that were not to the EU would depend on the tariffs that those destination countries charged. I'm not aware of anyone who has calculated the average tariff on those trade flows, and membership of the EU would only effect those tariffs in the short term to the extent that leaving the EU meant that the UK lost the benefit of any extant EU trade deal with those countries.

EU trade deals with other countries are negligible. We will do far better ourselves. The tariffs are WTO governed, countries we deal with, including the EU can't charge any more.

If the average tariff was more then 4% I'm certain Cameron and Co would have published that figure by now.

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

This is a glimpse into the tariff rates set by Australia:

https://www.border.gov.au/Busi/Tari/2007

If, for example, I wish to import a pig or a reptile skin which has been tanned I pay a 5% duty. If, instead, I wish to import a raw pig skin or indeed a raw or tanned sheep skin then I will pay no tariff.

This is the world that Brexit will plunge the UK into. Every single line of this crap will have to be negotiated with Brussels and everyone else the UK wishes to trade with and the thought that it could be done in 2 years is risible.

These are almost unique examples. Most stuff is covered by WTO rules which we currently use for most of our exports right now.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

This is a glimpse into the tariff rates set by Australia:

https://www.border.gov.au/Busi/Tari/2007

If, for example, I wish to import a pig or a reptile skin which has been tanned I pay a 5% duty. If, instead, I wish to import a raw pig skin or indeed a raw or tanned sheep skin then I will pay no tariff.

This is the world that Brexit will plunge the UK into. Every single line of this crap will have to be negotiated with Brussels and everyone else the UK wishes to trade with and the thought that it could be done in 2 years is risible.

we just agree for mutual benefit that nothing changes until a new deal is agreed: take about 5 minutes

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

we just agree for mutual benefit that nothing changes until a new deal is agreed: take about 5 minutes

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

Not so much comment on this report by some economists who can hardly be described as also-rans:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36150191

Lets apply classical economics and see what happens if we remove the external tariffs applied by the EU and instead trade under WTO rules - most people's 'worse case' EU deal:


Plus these were are not swivel-eyed loons, they make no claims about immigration per say being bad but do state that if we kept the same level of immigration as currently, outside the EU we could adjust the mix and allow in more Indian programmers and Chinese materials scientists - possibly very bad news for the staunchly pro-eu middle classes who currently benefit from cheap Polish builders and Romanian cleaners but much better for the UK overall.

Brexiteer rule 1. A pro-brexit economist can surely not be described as also-ran and needs to be taken seriously. An anti-brexit economist can however be dismissed within 30 seconds as out of touch and in the pocket of the elites.

Brexiteer rule 2. Immigrants from outside the EU are scientists and programmers, immigrants from within the EU are cleaners and builders.

Rinoa

From today's times.

Thanks Mr Obama.