Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

since we are guessing, I think that at least 3 million will come and that 90% will come to london (based on current habitat of Turkish people in the UK)
so the population of london will increase from about 8 million to about 10.7 million (plus of course other immigrants ) so lets asay about 11.5 million : absolutley no hope for young Uk born people to live in a family sized house


we have to remember that Turkey is a dysfunctional, corrupt, extremist, undemocratic country which will mean far more people will come here that from Italy.

But I put down my assumptions in my estimate so you can pick them apart and we can discuss what might happen.

What of the following do you think is a bad assumption or reasoning?


Turkey is already twice as rich as Poland was when Poland joined so it will be a lower economic pull factor. And since Turkey is outpacing Europe growth each and every year that pull factor reduces further.

When Poland joined the poles could not go to Germany/France which concentrated them into the UK not only for the first 7 years but also subsistent years due to the existing pool of migrants.
With the UK also going for the 7 year wait period this time around I would expect 1/3rd or less as many turks as they will have 3 big EU countries to choose from not 1. This factor alone should see many fewer turks per capita than poles

Germany: The Turks will primarily go there as there are already 3 million Turks in Germany compared to something closer to 1/10th that figure in the UK. However many you expect to come to the UK I would say 5 times that figure will head to Germany.


So with that we can calculate an estimate. Roughly

1/40 poles came to the UK
1/3rd as many will come to the UK as this time they will have Germany/France/UK to choose from not just the UK
1/3th factor again to take into account that Germany will be by far the preference for the Turks as there are already 3 million turks there

I make that 1/360 Turks to come to the UK

Or about 220,000 Turks but that is over a period of some 15 years.

I would guess upto 2 million would head to Germany.
0.2 million to France
0.5 million to rest of Europe

cells

And I think each year that passes the numbers will fall further and further simply because they are getting a lot richer very quickly. The poor old are dieing off while the young are going to university and getting professional jobs which they wont leave to come clean toilets here for.

Also with more than 600,000 homes built each year the people are creating fixed assets and wealth very rapidly. 20 years ago they had nothing and people who have nothing move in hope of something.


So again I will repeat that the UK is very unlikely to get anywhere near your 3 million. 1/10th of that is much more likely and over a period of 15 years. Most the Turks will head to Germany as there is already a huge pull factor of the existing 3 million or so Turks that live and have lived in Germany for many Decades.

If the political assumption is right that Turkey will side with the UK block on marginal vote issues more so than not then Turkey will tilt the balance towards the UK and away from France/Germany. Hence why the UK has been quite pro turkey while France has been strongly no and Germany somewhere in between.

mwpt

One thing struck me in your posts above, cells. I've previously lived in Germany and will say it was one of my favourite countries. The attitudes of the Germans may have shaped mine or matched mine, it's hard to say which. They seem to on the whole favour a capitalist society where hard work pays (but not too excessively) but have a social welfare system too. They also combine this with a very liberal and level attitude to the general things in life. For example, go swimming at lakes in Germany, it's completely normal for people to strip down naked in front of everyone to change into swimwear and in certain sections not even bother with swimwear at all. People do not blink, families are comfortable with this. Germany already has a large Turkish contingent and I don't think have many issues with this but I do wonder how a few million immigrants from an ultra conservative country/culture/religion would integrate with this very liberal way of life. In my opinion, it would take quite some time to truly integrate.

Of course, not all regions are the same in Germany, some are a lot more conservative, weirdly, in the south, the opposite of what I'd expected. Before I lived there I'd expected the northerners to be more grim (my stupid brain thought colder = grimmer) but actually they're more open.

EDIT: Actually, this may not be very fair of me and I may have generalised too much. I actually don't know if some of the Eastern European most Catholic countries already in the EU are more or less conservative than Turkey. I await Clapton to tell me how racist I am

cells

I suspect like most migrants anywhere the first generation do not integrate very well simple due to language problems. The second generation will be fully integrated having grown up and gone to school there and the third generation almost indistinguishable in culture and in a lot of cases maybe even in appearance as a lot of the Turks are quite European looking.

Johnsmith2016

Mwpt - enjoyed reading your post thanks

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

I suspect like most migrants anywhere the first generation do not integrate very well simple due to language problems. The second generation will be fully integrated having grown up and gone to school there and the third generation almost indistinguishable in culture and in a lot of cases maybe even in appearance as a lot of the Turks are quite European looking.

7/7 bombers were not 1st generation (your definition)

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

But I put down my assumptions in my estimate so you can pick them apart and we can discuss what might happen.

What of the following do you think is a bad assumption or reasoning?


Turkey is already twice as rich as Poland was when Poland joined so it will be a lower economic pull factor. And since Turkey is outpacing Europe growth each and every year that pull factor reduces further.

When Poland joined the poles could not go to Germany/France which concentrated them into the UK not only for the first 7 years but also subsistent years due to the existing pool of migrants.
With the UK also going for the 7 year wait period this time around I would expect 1/3rd or less as many turks as they will have 3 big EU countries to choose from not 1. This factor alone should see many fewer turks per capita than poles

Germany: The Turks will primarily go there as there are already 3 million Turks in Germany compared to something closer to 1/10th that figure in the UK. However many you expect to come to the UK I would say 5 times that figure will head to Germany.


So with that we can calculate an estimate. Roughly

1/40 poles came to the UK
1/3rd as many will come to the UK as this time they will have Germany/France/UK to choose from not just the UK
1/3th factor again to take into account that Germany will be by far the preference for the Turks as there are already 3 million turks there

I make that 1/360 Turks to come to the UK

Or about 220,000 Turks but that is over a period of some 15 years.

I would guess upto 2 million would head to Germany.
0.2 million to France
0.5 million to rest of Europe

did you correctly predict the number of migrants that arrived in germany last year?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

One thing struck me in your posts above, cells. I've previously lived in Germany and will say it was one of my favourite countries. The attitudes of the Germans may have shaped mine or matched mine, it's hard to say which. They seem to on the whole favour a capitalist society where hard work pays (but not too excessively) but have a social welfare system too. They also combine this with a very liberal and level attitude to the general things in life. For example, go swimming at lakes in Germany, it's completely normal for people to strip down naked in front of everyone to change into swimwear and in certain sections not even bother with swimwear at all. People do not blink, families are comfortable with this. Germany already has a large Turkish contingent and I don't think have many issues with this but I do wonder how a few million immigrants from an ultra conservative country/culture/religion would integrate with this very liberal way of life. In my opinion, it would take quite some time to truly integrate.

Of course, not all regions are the same in Germany, some are a lot more conservative, weirdly, in the south, the opposite of what I'd expected. Before I lived there I'd expected the northerners to be more grim (my stupid brain thought colder = grimmer) but actually they're more open.

EDIT: Actually, this may not be very fair of me and I may have generalised too much. I actually don't know if some of the Eastern European most Catholic countries already in the EU are more or less conservative than Turkey. I await Clapton to tell me how racist I am

you clearly fail to understand the difference between observing and documenting how different peoples behave and racial or ageist stereotyping.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

you clearly fail to understand the difference between observing and documenting how different peoples behave and racial or ageist stereotyping.

I was just jesting. But the thing is I realised I was resorting to a stereotype without actually knowing much about how conservative most of Turkey is compared to some of the Catholic Eastern European countries. Everybody does it, our brain evolved that way, because generalisation are fast to make and help us escape that thing that looks like a tiger in the bushes.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I was just jesting. But the thing is I realised I was resorting to a stereotype without actually knowing much about how conservative most of Turkey is compared to some of the Catholic Eastern European countries. Everybody does it, our brain evolved that way, because generalisation are fast to make and help us escape that thing that looks like a tiger in the bushes.

yes, stereotyping is one of our less intelligent abilities when tigers aren't an actual issue.