Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Why do you continue to lie about Turkey joining the EU? It isn't and you know it.

Genuine question. Why lie so obviously?

What have I posted that said I thought Turkey was going to join the EU at time soon or indeed ever?
Something else you have made up since you have abandoned rational economic thought for slavish devotion to the EU?

cells

mwpt wrote: »

Who mentioned white christian? You guys are saying the impact of Turkey joining would be bad, but Turkey won't be joining, hence you're using it as a scare tactic.

But nice attempt to muddy the matter and frame me.

Turkey Joining wont be bad it might lead to some more migrants. The Turkey scare is the idea that millions will flood the EU

We could try to guess, if the Current EU minus the UK is about 400 million people and turkey is about 80 million then all else equal Turkey getting into the EU might increase migration by 20%

UK net migration is what about 300,000 a year? Half of it from the EU? Add 20% to that figure and we get ~30,000 a year


So that is my ballpark guess of the number of Turks that would come to the UK which would increase net migration about 10%. That is not all that big a deal certainly not a number that is scary.

Of course the suggestions that 75 million turks will get free movement is to lead people to believe a good portion maybe most of that 75 million will make its way here which is clearly stupid.

cells

Generali wrote: »

Why do you continue to lie about Turkey joining the EU? It isn't and you know it.

Genuine question. Why lie so obviously?

Turks who want to come to the UK already have a reasonable straightforward way of doing it via various agreements directly between the UK and Turkey

My guess is ~30,000 would come to the UK each year. Compare that to the ~500,000 a year in population growth and its not all that scary a number.

But instead of highlighting 30,000 turks a year might come to the UK the story is '75 million in Turkey to get the right to come to the UK' as that lets the reader use their imagination of what high percentage of that 75 million will jump on a boat to come here.


We can also try to cross check it against poland. Estimated 700k arrived between the 2004-2013 ten year period. 70k a year.
That is higher than my estimate for Turkey but Turkey is richer than Poland was when Poland joined. Its a lot less likely the UK will not opt for the 7 year wait which meant poles did not have the option to go to France or Germany from 2004-2011.

happylucky

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

We need to also consider the secruity side of it, they share a border with iraq and syria, and I read 11% of the largly muslim population sympathise with ISIS. We may say this doesnt represent the majority of of muslim or turkey which is true but still 11% of 75m people is still about 8m people, and it only takes one to cause disaster

May I ask exactly where you read that 11% are ISIS sympathisers? Thanks

missbiggles1

CLAPTON wrote: »

you have absolutely no idea when or if Turkey will join: none whatsoever.

Well, it certainly won't be in October this year!

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Turks who want to come to the UK already have a reasonable straightforward way of doing it via various agreements directly between the UK and Turkey

My guess is ~30,000 would come to the UK each year. Compare that to the ~500,000 a year in population growth and its not all that scary a number.

But instead of highlighting 30,000 turks a year might come to the UK the story is '75 million in Turkey to get the right to come to the UK' as that lets the reader use their imagination of what high percentage of that 75 million will jump on a boat to come here.


We can also try to cross check it against poland. Estimated 700k arrived between the 2004-2013 ten year period. 70k a year.
That is higher than my estimate for Turkey but Turkey is richer than Poland was when Poland joined. Its a lot less likely the UK will not opt for the 7 year wait which meant poles did not have the option to go to France or Germany from 2004-2011.

if the same proportion of the turkish population came to the UK as that of poland we would expect about 1.5 million.
given the ethnic and other problems of turkey then that would be reasonable to assume twice that so lets say 3 million
Lets guess that half would go to London, making the prospect of any young person in London living in a family sized house unattainable in many parts.

mayonnaise

Generali wrote: »

Why do you continue to lie about Turkey joining the EU? It isn't and you know it.

Genuine question. Why lie so obviously?

As facts are not particularly in their favour, lies are the only option left for the brexit campaign.
From lies about Turkey joining the EU to lies about the Queen favouring brexit to lies about leaving the EU would save the NHS, lies about EU rules on blowing up balloons or teabag recycling, lies..lies...lies...the list is endless.

I hope the remain campaign keeps sticking to hard facts and positive campaigning as they have done until now. :T

CLAPTON

missbiggles1 wrote: »

Well, it certainly won't be in October this year!

I personally don't EXPECT Turkey to join any time soon.
Basically for the reasons that many hypocrites here refer to as scare stories : i.e. they are terrified of a muslim country joining.

However, given the huge democratic deficit in the EU, it is quite possible that Merkel or the other 'leaders' of the EU will do a deal giving effective membership wrapped up the the usual EU double talk.
So, who knows?

Johnsmith2016

There are several articles but here is one.

http://www.meforum.org/5317/turkey-isis

ChiefGrasscutter

mayonnaise wrote: »

As facts are not particularly in their favour, lies are the only option left for the brexit campaign.
From lies about Turkey joining the EU to lies about the Queen favouring brexit to lies about leaving the EU would save the NHS, lies about EU rules on blowing up balloons or teabag recycling, lies..lies...lies...the list is endless.

I hope the remain campaign keeps sticking to hard facts and positive campaigning as they have done until now. :T

I just can't wait to see what 'nuclear bombs' the EU have waiting for us if we vote to stay in in June.......
how about
1. A ban on all referendums anywhere on any subject for ever.
2. Getting tough on the UK in complying in respect of prisoner voting.
3. Re-introducing the proposed bans on high powered kettles, toasters and hair/hand driers. (so you just spend longer using lower powered ones)
4. Something to Fk over the City of London - some new "financial stability tax"

Then we could move on to some really incendiary "harmonisation" projects
How about
a) VAT to be equalized both in level and in scope. So that will be 23% across the board for all countries - in particular energy and food.
b) For something which which really send people ape sheet, how about harmonising the age of consent at the EU average - being 15.