Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

fatbeetle

cells wrote: »

Also turkey is about twice as rich now per capita than poland was when poland joined. Assuming it takes 20 years for turkey to join then its likely to be about 5x richer on joining than when Poland joined.

But, Turkey ranks third highest among 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development on a scale of income inequality. Also, Turkey's unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at between 8 and 9 percent.

cells

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Cells - the trade and economy reasons aside, what about the borer with syria? Will there be extra safe guards

what about the border with syria. I am not sure how/why that would be worse with turkey in the EU than out

also wars/civil-wars dont last forever surely the mess in syria will be a lot better in 40-50 years if for no other reason that old age will kill a lot of the power grab players of today

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

I tend to agree, plus they have a horrendous human rights record.

AIUI it is this that has kept them out of the EU. They can't join a group of free nations if they aren't free.

cells

fatbeetle wrote: »

But, Turkey ranks third highest among 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development on a scale of income inequality. Also, Turkey's unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at between 8 and 9 percent.

i am amazed its as low as 8-9% considering France (the 2nd/3rd richest EU nation) is >10%. turkey is still a relatively poor country but it isn't India or Africa or Poland(2004) its about half the income on a PPP basis vs the UK

On a nominal basis I am sure the turks will close the gap further as they have been doing for the last 30 years.

again its a long long road for turkey, either side might say no thanks but if both feel its in the interest of both then its going to take 20+ years for turkey to get MEPs and then 20+ years after that for free movement. or maybe turkey will just push for a better trade deal with the EU and try to form a similar sort of free trade area with some of the ME nations. Who knows 20-40 years is such a long time

But its not going to be a poland in 2004, already the turks are ~twice as rich as the poles were in 2004. When/If they eventually get full rights they might well be 5-10x as rich as poland was when it joined so the economic pull factors will be much less

Generali

cells wrote: »

i am amazed its as low as 8-9% considering France (the 2nd/3rd richest EU nation) is >10%. turkey is still a relatively poor country but it isn't India or Africa or Poland(2004) its about half the income on a PPP basis vs the UK

On a nominal basis I am sure the turks will close the gap further as they have been doing for the last 30 years.

again its a long long road for turkey, either side might say no thanks but if both feel its in the interest of both then its going to take 20+ years for turkey to get MEPs and then 20+ years after that for free movement. or maybe turkey will just push for a better trade deal with the EU and try to form a similar sort of free trade area with some of the ME nations. Who knows 20-40 years is such a long time

But its not going to be a poland in 2004, already the turks are ~twice as rich as the poles were in 2004. When/If they eventually get full rights they might well be 5-10x as rich as poland was when it joined so the economic pull factors will be much less

According to World Bank data, these are some selected growth rates, compounded, since 1995:

- Germany 29.8%
- Spain 50.2%
- EU 41%
- France 37%
- Turkey 129%

In about 35 years or so at that growth rate Turkey will have a GDP of roughly what Germay's is today.

fatbeetle

cells wrote: »

But its not going to be a poland in 2004, already the turks are ~twice as rich as the poles were in 2004. When/If they eventually get full rights they might well be 5-10x as rich as poland was when it joined so the economic pull factors will be much less

Some Turks would be richer, most, by far the most will not see that wealth increase.

On the eve of the election, the government’s Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) found that 22.4 percent of Turkish households fell below the official poverty line of $1,626 a month for a family of four. The country’s largest trade union organization, TURK-IS, which uses a different formula for calculating poverty levels based on incomes below the minimum monthly wage—$118—argues that nearly 50 percent of the population is at, or near, the poverty line.

Figures show that while national income has, indeed, risen over the past decade, much of it has gone to the wealthy and well connected. When the AKP came to power in 2002, the top 1 percent accounted for 39 percent of the nation’s wealth. Today that figure is 54 percent. In the meantime, credit card debt has increased 25 fold, from 222 million liras in 2002 to 5.8 billion liras today

http://fpif.org/turkeys-akp-doomed-by-poverty-growing-inequality-and-its-war-on-trade-unions/

cells

fatbeetle wrote: »

Some Turks would be richer, most, by far the most will not see that wealth increase.

This is total nonsense you are just saying it for the sake of it. Even your own link puts the poverty line at $1626 a month for poverty seems silly thats roughly the minimum wage in the UK.

The masses in Turkey have gotten considerably richer over the last 40 years. There is no denying it you can see it from everything from the number of cars on the road to the number of airports/train stations/metro/power stations and even the new world metric of the number of iphones in peoples hands.

That does not mean there are no poor people in turkey there are plenty just like there are plenty of poor people in the USA but a lot less than in the past and the average is a lot richer.


Turkey still has challenges but at a GDPppp/Capita of $21,000 meant it definitely no longer a truely poor country. Compare it to china which is closer to $13,000 per capita.

cells

fatbeetle wrote: »

Some Turks would be richer, most, by far the most will not see that wealth increase.

seriously, what a stupidly wrong statement

I wish the Turks (Like I wish all the nations of the world) even more good fortune and wealth but Turkey today v 30 years ago is like comparing somalia to spain

The world bank puts turkey GDPppp per capita up more than 10 x over the last 30 years. It has gone from a 3rd world country to a upper middle income country and still growing.

fatbeetle

So wealth disparity doesn't exist in Turkey?

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Asia-and-the-Pacific/Turkey-POVERTY-AND-WEALTH.html

cells

fatbeetle wrote: »

So wealth disparity doesn't exist in Turkey?

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Asia-and-the-Pacific/Turkey-POVERTY-AND-WEALTH.html

in which country is wealth uniformly spread between all citizens? Not the uk that is for sure. For both Turkey and the UK the gini coefficient is in the 0.4-0.5 range so not all that different

Also your silly link is out of date by nearly 20 years a period of time where wages infrastructure and wealth in turkey boomed.

Turkey is no longer a poor country it is a middle income country.