Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

Filo25

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Does anyone else apart from mctavish think turkey joining the EU will boost the uk economy?

The UK government appears to as its been one of the biggest cheerleaders for Turkey membership within the EU for a while.

Not that I agree with them on this one, the Erdogan regime is not one I would want within the EU.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

How you go about arranging bilateral free trade deals with most major trading partners on a timely basis.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here much though it may seem otherwise!

My concern is that if you start giving other markets tariff free access to the UK market with no quid pro quo, you give away a lot of negotiating power in trying to get access to their market on the same terms.

From an economic purist point of view free trade is a marvellous idea with benefits for all, I don't think anyone could seriously argue that in reality trade deals tend to be a lot messier and uglier, with the various counterparties trying to get as many benefits as possible while giving as little away as possible.

in many situation we don't need specific trade agreements : we simply trade on the basis of their existing tariffs.
trade arrangements are needed if we want to trade on different basis : my understanding that we trade with many of our major partners (e.g USA) on a non specific trading basis.

Whether the UK will be better off with zero tariffs on food is partly about politics and partly about economics
I believe about 95% of economists take the view that in general tariff free imports are beneficial to the people of the importing country.
However protectionists inefficient producers tend to disagree and often gain wide support from the electorate : e.g. we will have to see how the steel situation resolves.

Your view about 'gaining benefits and giving away as little as possible ' is probably more about pork barrel politics than about whats best for the country.
What benefits actually accrue to either country in having tariff barriers unless you are an inefficient business that wants to continue to screw their own customers?

Johnsmith2016

Why are we bothered about the turkey "regime" if according to the mactavich letting them in will boost our economy, and have zero impact on our borders, and they dont get visa free access to the uk - i dont see any downsides for the uk, let them run their country however and as badly as they like, but we still get the net benefit without any problems.

CLAPTON

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Why are we bothered about the turkey "regime" if according to the mactavich letting them in will boost our economy, and have zero impact on our borders, and they dont get visa free access to the uk - i dont see any downsides for the uk, let them run their country however and as badly as they like, but we still get the net benefit without any problems.

if Turkey become a full member of the EU then they will have free movement of people to any member state including the UK.

mwpt

I'm pro progress and slowly opening borders across the world but I don't think the EU in the current state is ready for Turkey to join. We need a period of consolidation, perhaps for 5-10 years before we seriously start to consider it. Just my opinion.

Johnsmith2016

Mactavish says the controls we have today will remain the same if turkey joins.

You say they will have free movement to the uk.

Both cant be correct.

My post is based on them not having free movement , if you are correct and they do then that is a major consideration, that we have to weigh up against the net benefit we could gain to our economy. I say this as it could be dangerous allowing a country in who has a border with stria, because isis will use it.

See this is the problem we never get enough info to make an informed judgement. We know at some point turkey ARE joining, be it today tommorow or 2020 - cameron and merkal have championed and vowed to fight for turkey, so we can argue dates all we want, but the bigger picture is they WILL join, and the british people should have the facts on this presented to us. I mean it could happen as early as October and we dont even bloody know if free movment is part of the deal. I was all for the deal under mactavishes illustration as it had a nett benefit to the uk economy and zero impact on our borders as we are not in the shengen zone, but your version contradicts this version.

Another potential issue is after 5 years they get a EU passport anyway and can come to the UK no problem. Look at your UK passport now, it says European Union not UK. - again have the implications of this influx in 5 years from those in Germany been thought through? How will our NHS , schools, public services cope? If they have done done the analysis and found its fine then ok, but i have not heard anything.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I'm pro progress and slowly opening borders across the world but I don't think the EU in the current state is ready for Turkey to join. We need a period of consolidation, perhaps for 5-10 years before we seriously start to consider it. Just my opinion.

what criteria do you have for saying a country should be able to join?

Johnsmith2016

I suppose it depends on ones interpretation of progress really. Has the free movement in the shengzen zone been progress and a success or not? Has opening borders helped improve any country who has adopted this law? Who knows. All I know is nearly all the countries in the EU apart from the "big few" are essentially bankcrupt since adopting the Euro, which if I remember correctly, we was told the UK would fall apart if we didnt join - it was one of the best decisions in the modern era not joining the Euro.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

what criteria do you have for saying a country should be able to join?

I was going on the assumption that Europe as a whole wants Turkey to join the EU. I'm not qualified to make any assessment myself.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I was going on the assumption that Europe as a whole wants Turkey to join the EU. I'm not qualified to make any assessment myself.

europe as a whole clearly doesn't want turkry to join otherwise they would already be full members

you said you didn't think turkey as ready to join
what did you mean ?