Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

cells

Wild_Rover wrote: »

:eek:

Now, now, Clapton, you are not allowed to ask questions like that. Hamish won't like it (or, if my experience is anything to go by, answer it.)

WR

clearly the prosperity of the UK isn't 100% down to the EU nor is the prosperity of the EU 100% to do with the UK

There is some element of prosperity boosting from free trade in the block its anyone guess what that figure might be. A report out today suggests 6% of GDP I think its probably not that much maybe only half of that but that is still a significant number.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

clearly the prosperity of the UK isn't 100% down to the EU nor is the prosperity of the EU 100% to do with the UK

There is some element of prosperity boosting from free trade in the block its anyone guess what that figure might be. A report out today suggests 6% of GDP I think its probably not that much maybe only half of that but that is still a significant number.

if a 3% boost to GDP comes from free trade witht eh EU, what you you estimate the boost would be for free trade with the rest of the world?

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

if a 3% boost to GDP comes from free trade witht eh EU, what you you estimate the boost would be for free trade with the rest of the world?

Is that how it works then, we immediately get free trade with the rest of the world when we leave the EU?

I never realised....

Johnsmith2016

Not immediatly no... But in time yes thats how it works, the UK could trade with the world

Filo25

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Not immediatly no... But in time yes thats how it works, the UK could trade with the world

More accurately the UK can try to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world, what the terms of those deals would be and how long it would take to achieve them is open a large degree of uncertainty.

The idea that leaving the EU means we end up with free trade with the rest of the world has pretty much nothing to back it up.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Is that how it works then, we immediately get free trade with the rest of the world when we leave the EU?

I never realised....

I would be amazed if you actually believed that but just in case you really need the situation to be explained.

We will have the opportunity to negotiate with the rest of the world on a one to one basis.: at the moment only the EU28 can negotiate.

If we so choose, we can reduce import tariffs or non tariff barriers immediately.

Did you not know that?

Hope tht makes you want to leave now you understand better.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

I would be amazed if you actually believed that but just in case you really need the situation to be explained.

We will have the opportunity to negotiate with the rest of the world on a one to one basis.: at the moment only the EU28 can negotiate.

If we so choose, we can reduce import tariffs or non tariff barriers immediately.

Did you not know that?

Hope tht makes you want to leave now you understand better.

Yes we can do the things above I think that I have just about got my tiny brain around that.

However how other parties choose to treat our trade in terms of tariffs or other non-tariff barriers is entirely up to them.

Are you proposing that we just remove tarrifs on imports form all over the world, with no quid pro quo in terms of access to each of those countries' markets?

I'm sure our trading "partners" would love that, not so sure it would be popular with British companies though.

That's why we have these things called trade negotiations which tend to take a long time to get anywhere, and rarely lead to "free trade" either.

RJP33

It should be pointed out that the UK has no obligation to give 'notice', should we vote to leave, straight away. They could wrap up negotiations at least with the EU first.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Yes we can do the things above I think that I have just about got my tiny brain around that.

However how other parties choose to treat our trade in terms of tariffs or other non-tariff barriers is entirely up to them.

Are you proposing that we just remove tarrifs on imports form all over the world, with no quid pro quo in terms of access to each of those countries' markets?

I'm sure our trading "partners" would love that, not so sure it would be popular with British companies though.

That's why we have these things called trade negotiations which tend to take a long time to get anywhere, and rarely lead to "free trade" either.

I am saying that the UK will be free to make these decisions.

Whilst you may think it inconceivable that the UK would wish to remove all tariffs on, say. food, a great many economists would say that would make us richer.
Obviously you are of the school of trade protectionists and believe that tariffs make the people of the world richer.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

I am saying that the UK will be free to make these decisions.

Whilst you may think it inconceivable that the UK would wish to remove all tariffs on, say. food, a great many economists would say that would make us richer.
Obviously you are of the school of trade protectionists and believe that tariffs make the people of the world richer.

I have no issue with free trade, although there are obviously losers as well as winners with it and those losers tend to be very vocal.

However I think being some kind of unilateral free trader, where we remove tariffs on imports without any obligation on other nations to cut tariffs on our exports makes about as much sense as unilateral disarmament does.

So yes we get back to where we started we need trade negotiations, which tends to be long and complex deals and we are to an extent in limbo in the meantime.

The US, the other major economic power block, has already indicated that a trade deal with a UK outside the EU is not a priority to them, so its hard to envisage those negotiations even starting until TTIP is out of the way.

The problem the Brexit campaign has for me, and I am far from a massive Europhile, is coming up with a credible plan to deal with the economic uncertainty Brexit would bring in the short to medium term.

The implication that we would have free trade deals with the rest of the world as soon as we leave the EU is hugely dishonest in my opinion.