Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

fatbeetle

Sorry, does this "market of 75m people" only exist if they are allowed into the EU?

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

europe as a whole clearly doesn't want turkry to join otherwise they would already be full members

you said you didn't think turkey as ready to join
what did you mean ?

I'm not going to get into an unnecessary argument, you can read my post however you wish, you will do so anyway.

Johnsmith2016

Freebeetle - no turkey and the 75m already exists. But i think the point is - them joining would lose the tarrifs and encourage free trade which would have a nett benefit to the uk and eu.
Which may or may not be true, be either way I think the crux of the deal will hinge on if as part of the deal they also get unrestricted visa access to the uk, sharing a border with syria, and turkey having a largely muslim population 10% who sympathise with ISIS could cause some fears for some, Again may be warranted maybe not.

fatbeetle

My point exactly John.

"Turkey remains an underdeveloped economy. Its GDP per capita at €13,000 is less than half the EU average. The entry of a country that poor and that big would place unbearable strains on EU finances. Turkey’s wealth is unequally spread, meaning that an army of poor immigrants would head west, joining the estimated 10 million Turks already living in the EU. In addition, though Turkey weathered the economic crisis much better than most, it failed to push through necessary reforms and economic growth is falling while unemployment is rising."

Johnsmith2016

I tend to agree, plus they have a horrendous human rights record. With such low wages, and the uk's new national living wage you can bet we would be a very desired country for them, along with our benefits, nhs etc - there not really going to go to romanianare they. I really dont think our government thinks through the long term impact of some of its decisons. I mean if its good for us and the right deal i am all for it. Another quote from david cameron

On a trip to Ankara in 2014, he encouraged other EU countries to allow it to join, saying Turkey was "vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital for our diplomacy".

Johnsmith2016

If we vote out the turkey deal wont matter to us anyway.

I do feel like the "leave" side is winning, regardless of biased media coverage, i literally dont know anyone voting to stay in my town, ordinary people seem to want out, policticians and big business want in. I do feel vote leave are portraying a much more positive message, of a brighter, safer, independant soverign nation. Whereas leave seem to basically be either scaremongering that britain will close on june 23rd or The EU is flawed they agree but its the best we can do.

Personally i would like an independant body to release the facts for both sides without bias, so i could make a better informed decision

Money_saving_maniac

The thought of Turkey joining the EU, as will definitely happen, is enough to make me vote Leave.
Anyone who doesn't vote Leave in the face of Turkey joining who is not very independently wealthy is insane IMO!

Fullfacts is a great charity committed to truth in politics

https://fullfact.org/europe/federal-europe/

cells

fatbeetle wrote: »

Sorry, does this "market of 75m people" only exist if they are allowed into the EU?

afaik

Turkey is already 'in the market'. They have free trade with the EU for almost all products (except agricultural products) but they have to abide by EU rules and regs.

There is some argument of this being unfair, in that Turkey has to follow the rules but gets no MEPs or say in how the EU is run.

In the very long term I can see turkey walking away unless they do get a say in the EU.


My guess is that things can continue as they are with regards to turkey for 10-20 years more. At around the 20 years stage (which time turkey will have gotten richer) the next step would be to allow Turkey into the EU (give them MEPs) but without free movement of people for another 20 years. So my guess is the time frame is 40-50 years and only if both sides seem to think its a good idea. 40-50 years is a huge time and very likely if turkey economy keeps growing at a faster rate than europes its going to be on par or very close to the EU average per capita income. So it wont be like a poland where citizens with 1/10th the income were allowed free movement to countries that paid wages 10x higher than back home. I think it will be closer to 1:1 for turkey and thus a much lessor economic reason to migrate away

cells

Money_saving_maniac wrote: »

The thought of Turkey joining the EU, as will definitely happen, is enough to make me vote Leave.
Anyone who doesn't vote Leave in the face of Turkey joining who is not very independently wealthy is insane IMO!

Fullfacts is a great charity committed to truth in politics

https://fullfact.org/europe/federal-europe/

Turkey wont get into the EU unless the EU really wants its

Also turkey is about twice as rich now per capita than poland was when poland joined. Assuming it takes 20 years for turkey to join then its likely to be about 5x richer on joining than when Poland joined.

I think in 20 years time they may get into the EU minus free movement of people. Some 20-30 years after that (so about 50 years from now) there may well be free movement for the turks but by that stage its quite likely be on par with western Europe incomes.

Thats if nothing goes wrong from now to 2065 and both sides still want it


PS I am told its fairly straight forward to get a visa to work in the UK for turks that want to set up even small businesses. An agreement is in place for (and has been for quite a number of years) between turkey and the uk for this. Its not quite free movement of people but its the type of arrangement whereby it seems if you really want to come you can do so legitimately.

Johnsmith2016

Cells - the trade and economy reasons aside, what about the borer with syria? Will there be extra safe guards