Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

you have absolutely no idea when or if Turkey will join: none whatsoever.

I can make an informed guess and the guess would be, not for a long time, if ever:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35832035

You are using this as scare tactics to appeal to a certain audience to reinforce the leave vote. That is mostly what this thread is about.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

you have absolutely no idea when or if Turkey will join: none whatsoever.

You are not stupid Clapton which is why people give you some time to air your views.

Even if Turkey joined in 10 years time. Add in the 7 years transitional period of no movement (which the UK choose not to apply to Poland but will apply to Turkey) and that gives you a period of at the very minimum 17 years.

Turkey is already about twice as rich as Poland was when Poland joined. Turkey is growing faster than Europe and 17 years will further reduce the difference in income.

If a more likely 25 years plus the 7 year wait then its 32 years. And only if both sides want it.

Maybe they might get in but with a longer waiting period of movement of people. Perhaps 15 years instead of 7.


I am not afraid of the Turkey getting into the EU but that is a long way away and even once in there will be a wait for free movement.

I suspect the biggest factor on the decision of letting the turks in or not will be how birth rates go over the next 20 years. If they are dire at below 1.5 kids per woman then Europe will take on Turkey if the birth rate is better and towards 2 per woman then they will just say sorry your going to have to wait another 20 years until/if we need you

cells

mwpt wrote: »

I can make an informed guess and the guess would be, not for a long time, if ever:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35832035

You are using this as scare tactics to appeal to a certain audience to reinforce the leave vote. That is mostly what this thread is about.

I thought maybe October 2023 would have been the time they joined as it would be 100 years since Atatürk. Plus the 7 year wait for free movement taking it to 2030 by which time a lot of the gap in wealth would have closed and the demographic problems in Europe would have become more problematic.

The migrant boom of the last couple of years and the wars and politics of the last 5 will make that impossible now and the time frames have been extended by 15-20 years.

My beat guess is now 2050 and only of both sides need and want each other and that could well fall apart before 2050

Johnsmith2016

I agree it 99% wont happen by june or october for various reasons, but to deny its being discussed is wrong.

I have copied part of the proposal.

In exchange for every returned Syrian, one Syrian from Turkey will be resettled in the EU
Plans to allow access to the EU for Turkish citizens will be speeded up, with a view to allowing visa-free travel by June 2016
EU payment of €3bn ($3.3bn; £2.2bn) promised in October will be speeded up, and a decision will be made on additional funding to help Turkey deal with the crisis. Turkey reportedly asked for EU aid to be increased to €6bn

mayonnaise

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

I agree it 99% wont happen by june or october for various reasons, but to deny its being discussed is wrong.

I have copied part of the proposal.

In exchange for every returned Syrian, one Syrian from Turkey will be resettled in the EU
Plans to allow access to the EU for Turkish citizens will be speeded up, with a view to allowing visa-free travel by June 2016
EU payment of €3bn ($3.3bn; £2.2bn) promised in October will be speeded up, and a decision will be made on additional funding to help Turkey deal with the crisis. Turkey reportedly asked for EU aid to be increased to €6bn

Did you copy the correct bit?
Nothing about Turkey joining the EU in there. Not in June, nor in October.

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

I agree it 99% wont happen by june or october for various reasons, but to deny its being discussed is wrong.

It's 100% certain that Turkey won't join the EU in 2016 or 2017 because Turkey simply doesn't meet the democratic criteria.

I'd like to say that I'm sorry to burst your bubble but I'm not. Idiots like you that make stuff up and post it as fact in the middle of important debates like whether or not the UK should remain in the EU should be called out for what they are.

I'd say what I think of you but I'd be PPR'd. Suffice to say it's not a nice word.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I can make an informed guess and the guess would be, not for a long time, if ever:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35832035

You are using this as scare tactics to appeal to a certain audience to reinforce the leave vote. That is mostly what this thread is about.

Why do you call a muslin country joining the all white christian EU a 'scare' tactic?
Are you a racist and find the idea of dealing with non white christian people a bit scary?
Is that why you are opposed to the UK leaving the all white chrisitian club and engaging with the whole world.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

Why do you call a muslin country joining the all white christian EU a 'scare' tactic?
Are you a racist and find the idea of dealing with non white christian people a bit scary?
Is that why you are opposed to the UK leaving the all white chrisitian club and engaging with the whole world.

Who mentioned white christian? You guys are saying the impact of Turkey joining would be bad, but Turkey won't be joining, hence you're using it as a scare tactic.

But nice attempt to muddy the matter and frame me.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Who mentioned white christian? You guys are saying the impact of Turkey joining would be bad, but Turkey won't be joining, hence you're using it as a scare tactic.

But nice attempt to muddy the matter and frame me.

What is scary about the possibility of Turkey joining? other that they are muslim and the EU is a white christian club.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

Why do you call a muslin country joining the all white christian EU a 'scare' tactic?
Are you a racist and find the idea of dealing with non white christian people a bit scary?
Is that why you are opposed to the UK leaving the all white chrisitian club and engaging with the whole world.

Why do you continue to lie about Turkey joining the EU? It isn't and you know it.

Genuine question. Why lie so obviously?