Impact on the UK Econemy when Turkey Joins the EU in October

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

I have no issue with free trade, although there are obviously losers as well as winners with it and those losers tend to be very vocal.

However I think being some kind of unilateral free trader, where we remove tariffs on imports without any obligation on other nations to cut tariffs on our exports makes about as much sense as unilateral disarmament does.

So yes we get back to where we started we need trade negotiations, which tends to be long and complex deals and we are to an extent in limbo in the meantime.

The US, the other major economic power block, has already indicated that a trade deal with a UK outside the EU is not a priority to them, so its hard to envisage those negotiations even starting until TTIP is out of the way.

The problem the Brexit campaign has for me, and I am far from a massive Europhile, is coming up with a credible plan to deal with the economic uncertainty Brexit would bring in the short to medium term.

The implication that we would have free trade deals with the rest of the world as soon as we leave the EU is hugely dishonest in my opinion.

The trade argument is that
-the UK will be free to form its own trade agreements
-you can immediately reduce/remove import tariffs on selected products if we think it is in the best interests of the UK

I am unaware that the USA has stopped all trade discussions with the whole world until TTIP are concluded.
I am aware that Trump doesn't support TTIP and Clinton is undecided and of course there are significant issues amongst the EU28.

Clearly you have huge issues with free trade but they would be best for a different thread devote to Ricardo's theories on comparative advantage rather clogging up the brexit one.

Filo25

Clapton, I can see I am kind of wasting my time here as usual, if you ever fancy responding to specific points rather than posting strawman arguments let me know.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Clapton, I can see I am kind of wasting my time here as usual, if you ever fancy responding to specific points rather than posting strawman arguments let me know.

give me one specific point I haven't responded to.

Conrad

How has New Zealand’s trade deal with China turned out;

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/feeding-the-dragon-lessons-of-the-new-zealand-china-fta/



'From an economic perspective, the free trade agreement has been a remarkable success for New Zealand, increasing exports to China from NZD2.2 billion ($1.8 billion) in 2008 to NZD8.6 billion in 2012 (the most recent statistics). As tariffs on 95 per cent of the products New Zealand exports to China are incrementally phased out (the FTA comes fully into force in 2019), trade is only set to increase'.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

The implication that we would have free trade deals with the rest of the world as soon as we leave the EU is hugely dishonest in my opinion.

We're a talented nation with the highest soft power rating on the planet and great thick deep links across the world, indeed we still control 1 / 7th of the Earths surface (according to that new BBC 'treasure islands' documentary), much of it highly strategic.


We're a potent military and intelligence nation, one of only 5 nations with access to the 5 Eyes System, we've the 2 billion citizen Commonwealth that of course will want a quick trade deal, we're Europe's number one defence nation with a nuclear umbrella to negotiate with.


It's about having the confidence to embrace ones destiny and autonomy, not being afraid to take charge and get stuck in

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

It's about having the confidence to embrace ones destiny and autonomy, not being afraid to take charge and get stuck in

Does embrace change mean stop all those foreigners from coming to live near me? Well, sort of near me. Well, actually in other parts of the country because I live in a nice countryside town with the correctly hued people.

Johnsmith2016

Regarding the free trade or having tarrifs arguement - the beauty of it is we can do which ever suits us best.

We dont manufacter much these days, but we are a massive consumer spending nation - hence we are a big fat customer to the EU, china , or whoever .
Regardless of remain or leave, money speaks very loudly, and no one is going to want to not deal with a big spending national like the uk.

Johnsmith2016

Does anyone else apart from mctavish think turkey joining the EU will boost the uk economy?

CLAPTON

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Does anyone else apart from mctavish think turkey joining the EU will boost the uk economy?

free trade is mutual advantageous to both parties although Turkey is already an associate member of the EU
fully joining the EU mean free movement of people etc which is an entirely different matter
Hamish longs for the day when the UK is the most populous on the planet

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

give me one specific point I haven't responded to.

How you go about arranging bilateral free trade deals with most major trading partners on a timely basis.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here much though it may seem otherwise!

My concern is that if you start giving other markets tariff free access to the UK market with no quid pro quo, you give away a lot of negotiating power in trying to get access to their market on the same terms.

From an economic purist point of view free trade is a marvellous idea with benefits for all, I don't think anyone could seriously argue that in reality trade deals tend to be a lot messier and uglier, with the various counterparties trying to get as many benefits as possible while giving as little away as possible.