The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

.string.

Tromking wrote: »

These petty nationalists seem to be losing their 'joie de vivre'.

Yes its a bump in the road for them, but I have to hand it to Shakey in particular, she keeps battling on, and she is right in that much depends on the course of the Brexit negotiations. She has a valid point although whether it will be to the advantage of the SNP remains to be seen.

That's why the SNP have been trying to throw all sort of obstacles in the way of a smooth negotiation process, it's why they want to have the possibility of a referendum in the autumn of next year when they can feast on the negative rumours and half-truths (aka Fake News) that they can spin as the negotiations reach crunch time and use them to swing a referendum in their direction.

I've no doubt that May recognised this and indeed she explicitly mentioned the need to get clear water between her majority and those that want to sabotage her negotiations.

Maybe she factored in the possibility that a GE would scupper some of the plotting of the SNP Government. Certainly it's forced Sturgeon to delay her battle plan for the SNP "referendum" until she can sense the mood in Scotland. Already we can see that the SNP approach to the GE will be to dodge the Referendum issue, claiming that the will of the Scottish People to have a referendum has already been established by the Scottish Parliament. Whether that holds water will depend on the results of the GE in terms of the popular vote. Certainly it will be resisted tooth and nail in Scotland.

In any case I doubt that she can get past May on this, and rightly so.

I suspect it will be up to the next Scottish Parliament to take this further or not. However If Fox, or his successor does his job properly, by that time other trade deals will be hatching and our economic priorities (including Scotland's), will be switching elsewhere than the EU. Time is running out for the SNP, the Last Chance Saloon it was called a few pages back.

All IMHO of course.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Yes its a bump in the road for them, but I have to hand it to Shakey in particular, she keeps battling on, and she is right in that much depends on the course of the Brexit negotiations. She has a valid point although whether it will be to the advantage of the SNP remains to be seen.

You're heading for a hard Brexit. Out of the single market and out of the customs union with hardly any time to make up the trade difference. The EU are hardening their stance, as are Brexit voters against the EU who are returning in droves to a Tory party which is now UKIP in all but name. You're heading with for a disaster and it's time you woke up.

That's why the SNP have been trying to throw all sort of obstacles in the way of a smooth negotiation process, it's why they want to have the possibility of a referendum in the autumn of next year when they can feast on the negative rumours and half-truths (aka Fake News) that they can spin as the negotiations reach crunch time and use them to swing a referendum in their direction.

I've no doubt that May recognised this and indeed she explicitly mentioned the need to get clear water between her majority and those that want to sabotage her negotiations.

You're heading for a hard Brexit. The only thing to negotiate on over the next year or so is the exit bill, EU citizen's rights, NI and Gibraltar. None of these has anything to do with the SNP. And you're going to majorly p**s off Ireland and Spain.

Maybe she factored in the possibility that a GE would scupper some of the plotting of the SNP Government. Certainly it's forced Sturgeon to delay her battle plan for the SNP "referendum" until she can sense the mood in Scotland. Already we can see that the SNP approach to the GE will be to dodge the Referendum issue, claiming that the will of the Scottish People to have a referendum has already been established by the Scottish Parliament. Whether that holds water will depend on the results of the GE in terms of the popular vote. Certainly it will be resisted tooth and nail in Scotland.

In any case I doubt that she can get past May on this, and rightly so.

May went for a GE because the polls are looking great and if she hadn't 20 or 30 of her MP's would be embroiled in an election expenses scandal. But mainly, because she wants five clear years. Rather than facing the public in 2019/20 just after securing a disasterous 'no deal' scenario and people like yourself finally face the realities of crashing out of the EU on WTO trade rules and what it will do to the UK economy.

I suspect it will be up to the next Scottish Parliament to take this further or not. However If Fox, or his successor does his job properly, by that time other trade deals will be hatching and our economic priorities (including Scotland's), will be switching elsewhere than the EU. Time is running out for the SNP, the Last Chance Saloon it was called a few pages back.

All IMHO of course.

The Scottish Parliament has until 2021 and it will take this further. So no, time is not running out for the SNP they still have four years to ask the Scottish public where they would prefer Scotland's future to lie. This GE is irrelevant to that.

Should May crash the UK out of the EU with 'no deal' and the UK economy starts taking a real hit. Then Scots have a route back in to avoid the worst of it. You're pretty much stuffed sadly. Sturgeon doesn't want to mess up negotiations, she wants Scotland to avoid what surely must be by now be pretty obvious to all a shockingly 'hard' Brexit and all it entails.

Tricky still despite being asked repeatedly still has no idea what a good Brexit deal will look like. I don't suppose you have any ideas on that do you ? What IS a good Brexit deal ?

Shaka_Zulu

So the faithful are tolld GERS are wrong but good old Derek thinks they are OK :rotfl:

Likre rats in a hole all the exits are being blocked one by one the Nats will have nowhere to hide soon.

Like the vampires they are sucking the life blood from Scotland once the glare of public scrutiny hits the will evaporated.

sss555s wrote: »

If you are getting your figures from GERS then it's a load of BS as I have pointed out before.

Speak to Derek about that ya fandan.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're heading for a hard Brexit. Out of the single market and out of the customs union with hardly any time to make up the trade difference. The EU are hardening their stance, as are Brexit voters against the EU who are returning in droves to a Tory party which is now UKIP in all but name. You're heading with for a disaster and it's time you woke up.

You're heading for a hard Brexit. The only thing to negotiate on over the next year or so is the exit bill, EU citizen's rights, NI and Gibraltar. None of these has anything to do with the SNP. And you're going to majorly p**s off Ireland and Spain.

May went for a GE because the polls are looking great and if she hadn't 20 or 30 of her MP's would be embroiled in an election expenses scandal. But mainly, because she wants five clear years. Rather than facing the public in 2019/20 just after securing a disasterous 'no deal' scenario and people like yourself finally face the realities of crashing out of the EU on WTO trade rules and what it will do to the UK economy.

The Scottish Parliament has until 2021 and it will take this further. So no, time is not running out for the SNP they still have four years to ask the Scottish public where they would prefer Scotland's future to lie. This GE is irrelevant to that.

Should May crash the UK out of the EU with 'no deal' and the UK economy starts taking a real hit. Then Scots have a route back in to avoid the worst of it. You're pretty much stuffed sadly. Sturgeon doesn't want to mess up negotiations, she wants Scotland to avoid what surely must be by now be pretty obvious to all a shockingly 'hard' Brexit and all it entails.

Tricky still despite being asked repeatedly still has no idea what a good Brexit deal will look like. I don't suppose you have any ideas on that do you ? What IS a good Brexit deal ?

What I or anyone else personally thinks a good Brexit deal looks like is irrelevant in the context of what the best and worst case scenarios mean for an independent Scotland.

I've laid that out in the clearest of terms multiple times previously. It basically boils down to:

Best possible Brexit deal = good for Scottish independence
Worst possible Brexit deal = bad for Scottish independence

But you're still trying to sell the same SNP line that "crashing out", or "cliff edges", or "car crash" Brexit is something Scotland can avoid by becoming independent. Quite the opposite, not only will an independent Scotland not avoid the problems you claim such a Brexit would bring to the rUK but you would invoke 4 times as much pain on yourselves as a absolute disaster Brexit deal would were you to remain in the UK.

The logic is not sound, and once people see that they will see that their interests are best served as part of the UK, for better or worse.

Sapphire

'Isikhathi sokuba ngesigezo imikhonto'

Is this written in an actual language? If yes, wot does it say?

NB Sokuba is a bit like the Russian sobaka, for 'dog'...

Or is it in Klingon?

TrickyTree83

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

So the faithful are tolld GERS are wrong but good old Derek thinks they are OK :rotfl:

Likre rats in a hole all the exits are being blocked one by one the Nats will have nowhere to hide soon.

Like the vampires they are sucking the life blood from Scotland once the glare of public scrutiny hits the will evaporated.



Speak to Derek about that ya fandan.

Oh dear indeed.

Thank you for that. So not only do they pass scrutiny from the UKSA (UK Statistics Authority), complying with international standards on statistics. But the SNP say they're a result of academic peer and public review!

The figures might not say what will happen in an independent Scotland, but they certainly indicate where the Scotland of today is. That'll be £15bn in the red, every year, in a shrinking economy and oil contributing ~£60m was it?

Shall we default now to the "well Scotland doesn't choose where some of that money goes!" argument now? And again point out that centralisation is cheaper than de-centralisation, as demonstrated by the SNP trying to centralise policing (which is a mistake given the nature of the role). Just look at the waste of money Holyrood is, all that time spent debating independence rather than the failing school system or the state of alcoholism in Scottish lives. Tut tut tut.

cogito

I keep wondering what a good Scoxit deal would look like but that's the one thing that Nicola won't tell Scottish voters. No word on what currency would be used, no word on how to make up for the Barnett money, no word on how to balance the budget etc.All we ever hear is that we must have another referendum.

Repeat ad nauseam.

TrickyTree83

cogito wrote: »

I keep wondering what a good Scoxit deal would look like but that's the one thing that Nicola won't tell Scottish voters. No word on what currency would be used, no word on how to make up for the Barnett money, no word on how to balance the budget etc.All we ever hear is that we must have another referendum.

Repeat ad nauseam.

Because the truth is crystal clear. It would perpetually hurt their position on independence to admit the truth about the importance of the rUK market to Scotland.

The only way Scexit would work is if the deal between the UK and the EU is a sweetheart deal for the UK. Then if Scotland leaves the UK to become part of the EU Scotland will be able to take advantage of the trade arrangements to keep the majority of the 500,000 jobs that depend on the rUK market. Allowing them to maintain things like tax revenue, lower welfare payments due to employment, etc...

The indy support would like you to think that they've thought this through. It's abundantly clear that they have not. The SNP would like you to think they've thought it through, it's also abundantly clear they too have not. Since a "Tory/Hard/Cliff Edge/Car Crash/Disaster Brexit" means independence is a terrible idea. In the same way a chocolate fireguard is a terrible idea.

If there were a way to leave the UK and retain access to the rUK market as they have now, that would be the only way an independent Scotland with a current fiscal deficit right now would be potentially viable. It would still require tax increases and/or spending cuts, but nothing on the scale they would need if they were to cut off the rUK market.

Enterprise_1701C

Sapphire wrote: »

'Isikhathi sokuba ngesigezo imikhonto'

Is this written in an actual language? If yes, wot does it say?

NB Sokuba is a bit like the Russian sobaka, for 'dog'...

Or is it in Klingon?

It is Zulu, The Time for the washing of the Spears.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

. ..Should May crash the UK out of the EU with 'no deal' and the UK economy starts taking a real hit. Then Scots have a route back in to avoid the worst of it. ...

No they don't. Brexit applies to the whole of the UK.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...You're pretty much stuffed sadly. .....

On that basis, Scotland will be absolutely stuffed.:)

First, stuffed by Brexit. Second, stuffed by Scexit. Third, stuffed by the loss of that £8bn a year subsidy.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...Sturgeon doesn't want to mess up negotiations, she wants Scotland to avoid what surely must be by now be pretty obvious to all a shockingly 'hard' Brexit and all it entails....

It can't be avoided. Even if (and it's a big if) that second 'referendum' is held in Autumn 2018-Spring 2019, and you get the result you want, Scotland would still be years away from independence. Only nation states can join EFTA or the EU. It will take a few years to negotiate independence, it will take a year or two to negotiate membership. Brexit will be in the past by the time that happens.

This has been explained to you on a number of occasions. Complete with links to the revelant treaties. But still you persist in posting something that you know isn't true. That's why people have concluded that you are delusional.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..Tricky still despite being asked repeatedly still has no idea what a good Brexit deal will look like. I don't suppose you have any ideas on that do you ? What IS a good Brexit deal ?

I have concluded that you no idea about much at all.

Do you have any ideas as to what spending cuts/tax rises will be applied to make up for that lost £8bn?