The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So ? All that matters is that Scots voters at least get the choice between a Brexit UK with endless Tory Govt's ( they voted for neither of them ) or independence/'taking back control'. It's up to them to decide on which direction they want their nation to go, not you or May.. but they should at the very least be allowed that choice without question.

May is trying to lock Scotland into to a ( hard ) Brexit UK with her party in charge before Brexit negotiations and the results of those are even clear, without even a say on the matter. Which is what this GE in Scotland right now is really all about. Stopping Scots voters having a say on it by blocking a second vote, too scared of what the results might be in two years down the line.

Whatever happens in this GE won't stop Strugeon making sure Scots voters do get a say via Holyrood. And if staying in a Brexit UK with Tories in charge really is what most Scots want in two years time then we'll all have to get on, live with that and make the best of it.

Locking Scotland into this whole Brexit thing right now at this point in time ? Down to possibly losing a few Westminster MP's and what vastly conflicting opinion polls say ? Isn't going to happen. I am sorry but you shouldn't get too distracted either by this GE or by independence polls at this point in time. There's lots of drama to be had sure, but ulitmately neither matter much in the long run.

After this GE we all turn attention back to May and what she gets or not from Brexit. And Sturgeon still has that referendum bill primed and ready to go.

Consistent polling saying they don't want the choice, and a battering in the GE for the parties who constantly say you do want a choice will change matters.

It will determine whether you're in the majority or the minority. If Scottish people reject the SNP's brand of independence at all costs then you'll just have to accept that it's been rejected. That they don't want the choice, that they don't want independence and that they want it all to shut the hell up for at least a generation as promised.

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So ? All that matters is that Scots voters at least get the choice between a Brexit UK with endless Tory Govt's ( they voted for neither of them ) or independence/'taking back control'. It's up to them to decide on which direction they want their nation to go, not you or May.. but they should at the very least be allowed that choice without question.

May is trying to lock Scotland into to a ( hard ) Brexit UK with her party in charge before Brexit negotiations and the results of those are even clear, without even a say on the matter. Which is what this GE in Scotland right now is really all about. Stopping Scots voters having a say on it by blocking a second vote, too scared of what the results might be in two years down the line.

Whatever happens in this GE won't stop Strugeon making sure Scots voters do get a say via Holyrood. And if staying in a Brexit UK with Tories in charge really is what most Scots want in two years time then we'll all have to get on, live with that and make the best of it.

Locking Scotland into this whole Brexit thing right now at this point in time ? Down to possibly losing a few Westminster MP's and what vastly conflicting opinion polls say ? Isn't going to happen. I am sorry but you shouldn't get too distracted either by this GE or by independence polls at this point in time. There's lots of drama to be had sure, but ulitmately neither matter much in the long run.

After this GE we all turn attention back to May and what she gets or not from Brexit. And Sturgeon still has that referendum bill primed and ready to go.

You seem to think that for Scottish voters, the GE is all about indyref2. There could be another explanation that they are sick of the SNP's massive mismanagement of the devolved powers.

kelpie35

cogito wrote: »

You seem to think that for Scottish voters, the GE is all about indyref2. There could be another explanation that they are sick of the SNP's massive mismanagement of the devolved powers.

Exactly

Come on Ruth you can do it :beer:

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Consistent polling saying they don't want the choice, and a battering in the GE for the parties who constantly say you do want a choice will change matters.

It's a getting a little tiring repeatedly having to correct you for not checking your facts properly Tricky. You seem to rely on headlines to do your thinking for you. I thought you said you worked with data and statistics in some form ?

Excluding Don't Knows, 49% of respondents chose one of the four pro-referendum options provided by TNS, and 51% chose the sole anti-referendum option provided. That's within the margin of error, so must be regarded as a 'statistical tie', and is strikingly similar to the findings of recent Panelbase polls which have also shown voters split down the middle.

There is no consistent polling showing Scots do not want another referendum. It's 50/50 among most polls including todays.

It will determine whether you're in the majority or the minority. If Scottish people reject the SNP's brand of independence at all costs then you'll just have to accept that it's been rejected. That they don't want the choice, that they don't want independence and that they want it all to shut the hell up for at least a generation as promised.

But what this GE won't determine is who's in the majority two years from now once the Brexit negotiations are concluded. The Scottish Parliament voting for another referendum ( seeking a section 30 ) to take place in 2019-ish means the option is always there no matter who rejects what in June 2017.

You're looking at this too short term. The SNP will be looking to keep as many Westminster MP's as they can of course. But even their interests lie ultimately with Holyrood and making Holyrood the centre of Scottish politics.

Mortgagefreeman

Nicola Sturgeon risks becoming a “laughing stock” over her claim that her election campaign has nothing to do with independence, Ruth Davidson has said as grassroots nationalists urged the SNP to make the link “explicit and undeniable”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/nicola-sturgeon-becoming-laughing-stock-claim-general-election/

I'm not surprised. Mrs May has delivered the killer punch. Sturgeon is now being seeing as a joke.

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

You seem to think that for Scottish voters, the GE is all about indyref2. There could be another explanation that they are sick of the SNP's massive mismanagement of the devolved powers.

You have that the wrong way round.

https://twitter.com/Ruaraidh_White/status/856516035771596801/photo/1

This came in the post today. Mentions of Tories/Davidson: 9. Mentions of SNP/Sturgeon: 23. Mentions of Indy/Referendum: 20. Mentions of Tory policies: 0

Sadly those who have the union as their top priority are going to be suckered into voting Tory under the false premise that it can stop what wheels the Scottish Parliament already set in motion weeks ago.

Davidson put in a truly awful showing in Holyrood today. She's really, really going to have to up her game significantly selling those Tory policies now.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's a getting a little tiring repeatedly having to correct you for not checking your facts properly Tricky. You seem to rely on headlines to do your thinking for you. I thought you said you worked with data and statistics in some form ?

There is no consistent polling showing Scots do not want another referendum. It's 50/50 among most polls including todays.

But what this GE won't determine is who's in the majority two years from now once the Brexit negotiations are concluded. The Scottish Parliament voting for another referendum ( seeking a section 30 ) to take place in 2019-ish means the option is always there no matter who rejects what in June 2017.

You're looking at this too short term. The SNP will be looking to keep as many Westminster MP's as they can of course. But even their interests lie ultimately with Holyrood and making Holyrood the centre of Scottish politics.

I was.

I was looking at whatscotlandthinks.org, I even gave the link.

The trend is clear if you present the data as the categorised bar chart. It separates the data into categories and orders the polls by time, oldest on the left and newest on the right within the category on the x axis.

Going back to your secondary maths classes you'll understand what a line of best fit is, yes? Draw one in your mind along the two categories and you'll see Yes trends downwards and No trends upwards. Also interesting is that "Don't know" also trends downwards, and refusals trending slightly upwards.

Don't know how much clearer I can be than that.

Based on the available data, arguments, and so forth. My predictions:

May, the SNP will loose council seats.

June, the SNP will lose MP's at Westminster.

2021, the SNP (and Greens after their betrayal of their voters) will lose MSP's.

Come the next referendum the independence cause will lose the argument - again.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You have that the wrong way round.

https://twitter.com/Ruaraidh_White/status/856516035771596801/photo/1

Sadly those who have the union as their top priority are going to be suckered into voting Tory under the false premise that it can stop what wheels the Scottish Parliament already set in motion weeks ago.

Davidson put in a truly awful showing in Holyrood today. She's really, really going to have to up her game significantly selling those Tory policies now.

It can.

It gives Westminster the ammunition to outright say no to the section 30.

When you're in the minority and on the decline you can whine about them saying no as much as you like. All that has to happen in the short term to defeat the independence movements angle for another referendum is to demonstrate it's against popular opinion and then to block it outright citing the popular opinion against it as the reason for saying no.

Then you'll be in illegal referendum territory which will be shot down in the courts, Holyrood has no constitutional power. Then you'll be in UDI territory, but all of this will be against the backdrop of a Scottish administration doing this against popular opinion. They might end up truly living up to the historic title of national socialists. :rotfl:

Mortgagefreeman

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Come the next referendum the independence cause will lose the argument - again.

No doubt they'll increase their booze consumption.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-36369507

It's no wonder Scotland now has become the leading Nation for alcoholics.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I was.

I was looking at whatscotlandthinks.org, I even gave the link.

The trend is clear if you present the data as the categorised bar chart. It separates the data into categories and orders the polls by time, oldest on the left and newest on the right within the category on the x axis.

Going back to your secondary maths classes you'll understand what a line of best fit is, yes? Draw one in your mind along the two categories and you'll see Yes trends downwards and No trends upwards. Also interesting is that "Don't know" also trends downwards, and refusals trending slightly upwards.

Don't know how much clearer I can be than that.

Based on the available data, arguments, and so forth. My predictions:

May, the SNP will loose council seats.

June, the SNP will lose MP's at Westminster.

2021, the SNP (and Greens after their betrayal of their voters) will lose MSP's.

Come the next referendum the independence cause will lose the argument - again.

I know what trends are. This poll today is WAY outside of any recent trend or even close to other poll companies on this. You should just be honest and admit it's the case. Also you stated that consistent polling suggests that Scots don't want another referendum. This is wrong reading of the data, it's 50/50 in most when you strip out all the 'do you want one now, in a year or in two years or after Brexit' nonsense.

This is the trend when you strip out the today's outlier which was conducted weeks ago.



May :- Labour will lose council seats. Since it's Labour that currently control most of them. ( again check your facts instead of relying on the Telegraph/the Mail or the Express ).

June :- Rural, borders and more affluent marginals. Tories will gain in vote share, Labour collapse. No idea how those will go.

2021 :- Too early to say. There's likely to be a new UK Labour leader by then. Brexit will have played out too.