The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

I feel fortunate down here in "evil England".

In recent GE's I have been fortunate enough to vote for a good LibDem MP and then a good Conservative MP, because they were willing to listen to the pressing issues in our neighbourhood.

I wouldn't like to have to vote for any old SNP fodder put up for election, just because they were able to spell "independence".

Never mind the dogma, feel the quality

I feel fortunate up here in "delusional Scotland". Because I wouldn't want my family to be relying your NHS at the moment. My MP is very good, always out and about when she's not in Westminster or performing breast cancer surgery in her time off... Much better than the last one who was an old Labour dinosaur who only bothered turning up at counts for years to weigh the votes. I expect the same story holds true pretty much all over Scotland.

Labour and the Tories are scrabbling about at the moment finding unknown candidates to stand in 59 seats. Though they're standing some current MSP's to get over that in target areas. One of those has already been in the papers for having another two jobs, if he makes it as an MP this will be his fourth.

Feel the quality right enough.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I feel fortunate up here in "delusional Scotland". Because I wouldn't want my family to be relying your NHS at the moment. My MP is very good, always out and about when she's not in Westminster or performing breast cancer surgery in her time off... Much better than the last one who was an old Labour dinosaur who only bothered turning up at counts for years to weigh the votes. I expect the same story holds true pretty much all over Scotland.

Labour and the Tories are scrabbling about at the moment finding unknown candidates to stand in 59 seats. Though they're standing some current MSP's to get over that in target areas. One of those has already been in the papers for having another two jobs, if he makes it as an MP this will be his fourth.

Feel the quality right enough.

Scotland isn't delusional.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They don't have to sell anything in my opinion as it's the status quo, which Scots are doing well out of. If the Scottish economy tanks under the SNP, you'll still get your tax credits, benefit payments, NHS, etc... people will still have a roof over their head and food in their bellies.

The independence support has to sell the dream, because right now that's all it is. They're doing a poor job of it since support is slipping away, SNP support is slipping away the unionist side is consolidating rather than being split across multiple unionist parties and there's no evidence that demonstrably shows an independent Scotland is better off, the available evidence shows the opposite.

Soapbox oratory of an anti-Conservative flavour isn't going to win the argument for you.

Is there an actual point to this rant peppered with whimsical fantasy Tricky ?

You've seen the polls and where the new support for Tories is coming from. John Curtice has set it out in black and white also. It's almost exclusively Unionists and Brexiteers. This should under normal circumstances give anyone pause for rational thought as to what happens after the GE and the dust has settled. And where do those Labour core voters go when it's all over in a few weeks time. Or if Brexit goes the wrong way.

Anti-Tory messaging works well with Labour voters. It'll work even better on previous Labour No voters who've spent their voting lives putting crosses in boxes keep Tories and their policies out of Scotland. They can only do that via an independence referendum now.

There were 514,261 of them voting Labour just a year ago. Some have gone to the Tories, some will stay at home and not vote at all.. but the rest ? Well you'd better believe these people are going to be Sturgeon's No1 target ground over the next two years. And not for the SNP either, elections will be done and dusted by then, no they'll be targeted for the independence vote. And Anti-Tory/keeping the Tories out of Scotland is something they'll always agree with Sturgeon on. Many have spent decades already voting to do so.

Any future Yes campaign should just slap stuff like this on a posters and billboards. Job done.

mollycat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Scotland isn't delusional.

Just people who think a majority of scots would vote for the permanence of independence to avoid the short term "offence" of a (possible), Tory government.

What would these people think in a (short), 10 years time when rUK has a different government, (possibly to these peoples liking), whilst the iScotland economy, services and standard of living is shot to pieces?

No going back; not that these people care, it's all about them and it's all about now.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is there an actual point to this rant peppered with whimsical fantasy Tricky ?

You've seen the polls and where the new support for Tories is coming from. John Curtice has set it out in black and white also. It's almost exclusively Unionists and Brexiteers. This should under normal circumstances give anyone pause for rational thought as to what happens after the GE and the dust has settled. And where do those Labour core voters go when it's all over in a few weeks time. Or if Brexit goes the wrong way.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/strange-rebirth-scottish-conservatism/

Yeah. Er. I'll let your eyes do the talking for me.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Anti-Tory messaging works well with Labour voters. It'll work even better on previous Labour No voters who've spent their voting lives putting crosses in boxes keep Tories and their policies out of Scotland. They can only do that via an independence referendum now.

Looks like it... :rotfl:

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There were 514,261 of them voting Labour just a year ago. Some have gone to the Tories, some will stay at home and not vote at all.. but the rest ? Well you'd better believe these people are going to be Sturgeon's No1 target ground over the next two years. And not for the SNP either, elections will be done and dusted by then, no they'll be targeted for the independence vote. And Anti-Tory/keeping the Tories out of Scotland is something they'll always agree with Sturgeon on. Many have spent decades already voting to do so.

Any future Yes campaign should just slap stuff like this on a posters and billboards. Job done.

Looks to me like you're arguing for independence as if it were the early 00's. Time has moved on, the SNP are obvious liars to the electorate, that cloak of invincibility has been removed and it's dawning on people just who and what they are.

If you voted to leave the EU, you're voting Conservative even if you hate doing so. You want to see the job done, that's what needs to happen and you don't want the SNP to reverse that (fishermen, coastal towns of which you have quite a few).

If you voted to remain but you support the union more than independence and EU membership, you're voting Conservative.

This is what happens when you polarise the electorate, "core Labour" bleh, doesn't matter. The SNP and the independence movement have made the political landscape that opposes them fluid and fickle, they now appear to be realising this which is why the momentum is now against the SNP.

FWIW I think you're right, I don't think these people are genuine Conservative voters. They will vote that way as a means to an end and that will include Labour voters who prefer the union. Your lot polarised Scotland and you're now going to reap the whirlwind. The more people hear Nicola Sturgeon say that word the more support will pool around a particular opposition to the SNP. I don't think it really matters who that is now, it could have been Labour, the Lib Dem's or someone else, it just happened to be the Conservatives probably due to the politics going on in the rest of the UK.

If Labour get rid of Kezia and put a pro-independence leader in place they're truly finished and it'll split the SNP vote, not much but it's another cut from which the SNP will bleed. We've had peak SNP, we've had peak independence support for now. Until there's answers to the 'same old tired arguments' you'll have reached peak support, it was probably just after the EU referendum. Now that the truth is coming out in the wash that's it, the movement is done in its current form.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/strange-rebirth-scottish-conservatism/

Yeah. Er. I'll let your eyes do the talking for me.



Looks like it... :rotfl:



Looks to me like you're arguing for independence as if it were the early 00's. Time has moved on, the SNP are obvious liars to the electorate, that cloak of invincibility has been removed and it's dawning on people just who and what they are.

If you voted to leave the EU, you're voting Conservative even if you hate doing so. You want to see the job done, that's what needs to happen and you don't want the SNP to reverse that (fishermen, coastal towns of which you have quite a few).

If you voted to remain but you support the union more than independence and EU membership, you're voting Conservative.

This is what happens when you polarise the electorate, "core Labour" bleh, doesn't matter. The SNP and the independence movement have made the political landscape that opposes them fluid and fickle, they now appear to be realising this which is why the momentum is now against the SNP.

FWIW I think you're right, I don't think these people are genuine Conservative voters. They will vote that way as a means to an end and that will include Labour voters who prefer the union. Your lot polarised Scotland and you're now going to reap the whirlwind. The more people hear Nicola Sturgeon say that word the more support will pool around a particular opposition to the SNP. I don't think it really matters who that is now, it could have been Labour, the Lib Dem's or someone else, it just happened to be the Conservatives probably due to the politics going on in the rest of the UK.

If Labour get rid of Kezia and put a pro-independence leader in place they're truly finished and it'll split the SNP vote, not much but it's another cut from which the SNP will bleed. We've had peak SNP, we've had peak independence support for now. Until there's answers to the 'same old tired arguments' you'll have reached peak support, it was probably just after the EU referendum. Now that the truth is coming out in the wash that's it, the movement is done in its current form.

You're mixing elections/party political support and independence support up I'm afraid.

This GE is party political. With the Tories reaping the rewards of sticking to one policy 'No referendum' and attracting Brexit voters by sticking to what seems likely now to be a hard Brexit. This party political GE as long as the SNP return a majority of Scottish seats, has no bearing whatsoever going forward on either referendums or future independence support.

The Anti Tory narrative becomes effective regarding independence support after this GE and Sturgeon starts pushing for another referendum. SNP/Green/previous Yes voters in the main still support independence and don't need convincing. It's previous No voters, most of whom last time round were Labour voters and are currently in the older demographic. They'll remember the 1980's all right ! As will newspapers like the Daily Record who were viciously against the Tories right up until 2007 ( SNP in power ) happened.

These voters I'm speaking of will be No1 in voter targeting for independence support. Nothing to do with voting for the SNP, in fact Sturgeon is likely to make a huge point of saying just that along with billboards of Ravenscraig, Linwood, Bathgate <--- am actually winding you up about those billboards but you never know. Irvine no more ( copyright the Proclaimers ) was the reason Sturgeon took up politics in the first place.

Anyway my bet is Sturgeon will only be too happy to reap the whirlwind which a party political General Election taking place in 2017 will have on a Scottish independence referendum a few years down the line.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're mixing elections/party political support and independence support up I'm afraid.

This GE is party political. With the Tories reaping the rewards of sticking to one policy 'No referendum' and attracting Brexit voters by sticking to what seems likely now to be a hard Brexit. This party political GE as long as the SNP return a majority of Scottish seats, has no bearing whatsoever going forward on either referendums or future independence support.

The Anti Tory narrative becomes effective regarding independence support after this GE and Sturgeon starts pushing for another referendum. SNP/Green/previous Yes voters in the main still support independence and don't need convincing. It's previous No voters, most of whom last time round were Labour voters and are currently in the older demographic. They'll remember the 1980's all right ! As will newspapers like the Daily Record who were viciously against the Tories right up until 2007 ( SNP in power ) happened.

These voters I'm speaking of will be No1 in voter targeting for independence support. Nothing to do with voting for the SNP, in fact Sturgeon is likely to make a huge point of saying just that along with billboards of Ravenscraig, Linwood, Bathgate <--- am actually winding you up about those billboards but you never know. Irvine no more ( copyright the Proclaimers ) was the reason Sturgeon took up politics in the first place.

Anyway my bet is Sturgeon will only be too happy to reap the whirlwind which a party political General Election taking place in 2017 will have on a Scottish independence referendum a few years down the line.

Ahhh so if the SNP get a kicking in the upcoming GE it doesn't count, it doesn't mean the people support Brexit and are against the SNP stance of indyref2 because of Brexit as you've maintained all along?

Surgeon should have stayed out of politics. She'll be remembered like Thatcher is by some but having achieved sod all during the most flush period the SNP will ever have. This GE is the least party political GE I've known. "Hold your nose and vote Tory" appears to be quite a common theme amongst the "core Labour" vote.

elantan

How exactly do you define a kicking Tricky ?

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

How exactly do you define a kicking Tricky ?

Given where they are currently and FPTP I expect to seem them lose close to 20 seats.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This GE is party political. With the Tories reaping the rewards of sticking to one policy 'No referendum' and attracting Brexit voters by sticking to what seems likely now to be a hard Brexit.

Might be a good wake up call as to what going in separate ways actually involves. Words come cheap. People who actually achieve something meaningful are far harder to find.