The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They will can kick to 2021. A declining SNP vote share and a non-existent Greens will mean the SNP will be locked out via a coalition probably on an issue by issue basis to keep the divisive liars in opposition. I'm not trying to be partisan when I say the SNP have done and are doing a disservice to the independence cause.

Sturgeon has no intention of kicking this down the road till 2021. It's was the sole point of voting through a section 30 bill for another referendum now. GE seats changing hand won't change that.

Like I said stark choices. There won't be enough Labour voters left by 2021 either to secure any coalition. Dugdale is likely to be falling on her sword in a few weeks time. Labour supporting Scottish media ( the Daily 'Vow' Record etc ) are finally starting to wake up too. Stark choices also for them in the next few months.

Rallying round the last defence of the Union really is the last chance saloon. There's nowhere else to go from there and they're still miles behind. Also worth bearing in mind that the electorate for a referendum/Scottish voting franchise isn't the same as a Westminster GE. The Scottish one includes 16/17 year olds and EU nationals. So direct comparisons should be made with caution.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Yep shakey, don't disagree too much with any of that. Seems fairly consistent with the snp tactic of creating a divided country.

I'd hardly call a cornerstone of what a political party stands for a 'tactic' lol. Your problem is that people keep voting for it, that's all.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'd hardly call a cornerstone of what a political party stands for a 'tactic' lol. Your problem is that people keep voting for it, that's all.

Well you're not too hot on things like that so I'm not surprised you're struggling.

But I do find it funny that after all the crying about project fear in the first Indy ref, that it's now a cornerstone of snp strategy.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Well you're not too hot on things like that so I'm not surprised you're struggling.

But I do find it funny that after all the crying about project fear in the first Indy ref, that it's now a cornerstone of snp strategy.

Chance would be a fine thing for the SNP to even get a 50th of airtime or column space for any Project fear. The media can't stand them.

Still, never mind.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (BMG)
Yes 43%
No 45%
Those are the figures before Don't Knows are stripped out - I can't find the figures excluding Don't Knows yet, but they'll either be Yes 49%, No 51% or Yes 48% No 52%

Don't knows excluded 48.86% yes 51.14% no

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Rallying round the last defence of the Union really is the last chance saloon. There's nowhere else to go from there and they're still miles behind. Also worth bearing in mind that the electorate for a referendum/Scottish voting franchise isn't the same as a Westminster GE. The Scottish one includes 16/17 year olds and EU nationals. So direct comparisons should be made with caution.

The evidence suggests that it's last chance saloon for independence actually.

The economic argument is farcical, the political argument is getting worse as SNP support wains and Conservative support grows. As I've outlined previously Brexit makes the independence argument worse, your cause looks set to lose at the second attempt regardless of when or if that happens.

Arguing that a referendum should take place is not going to help you win it, it's not going to magically change the numbers or the arguments against independence. By forcing the issue the independence campaigners (incl. the SNP) are hurting their own cause by jumping to another referendum before actually being ready to argue for it.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The evidence suggests that it's last chance saloon for independence actually.

No, the unpersuadeable 30-35% are going Tory there's another realignment going on. However, there's a rump Labour core vote that will never in a million years vote Tory nor for something which guarantees right wing Tory Govts for years and they're going to have to go somewhere.

The economic argument is farcical, the political argument is getting worse as SNP support wains and Conservative support grows. As I've outlined previously Brexit makes the independence argument worse, your cause looks set to lose at the second attempt regardless of when or if that happens.

Support for independence is still solid. Tory gains are only useful in making previous Labour No's switch. And they will. Check out the end of this table where undecided independence voters say how likely they are to vote for independence if the Conservatives win in June. Undecideds do not seem very keen on a massive Tory majority.

http://i.imgur.com/aC7cHMx.png

Support for the Conservative party as 'a party' isn't growing. It's support for the Union/Leaving the EU polarising.

Arguing that a referendum should take place is not going to help you win it, it's not going to magically change the numbers or the arguments against independence. By forcing the issue the independence campaigners (incl. the SNP) are hurting their own cause by jumping to another referendum before actually being ready to argue for it.

Now is the time to be asking for another referendum. The arguments for independence can wait until nearer the time of the vote in two years time. We still don't know what Brexit will bring us which will have to be taken into consideration.

Over the last few years the SNP have managed the unthinkable in dislodging Labour as the dominant party. The Tories, given they'll be facing the same stand off's Labour did in the coming year or two, and are still toxic to a large percentage of Scots in many areas should beware. May is not popular up here. And Davidson, treated with kid gloves for so long is going to have to sell Brexit and everything else that goes with a Conservative Govt directly now. That in itself should be a good watch and no more buffalos thank gawd. :cool:

The Tories Are Coming

The Tories are relying on the disaffected from other parties to back them for one last tilt at resistance before the inevitable...

For the SNP the heart murmur that represents Labour shows how they have successfully taken on and crushed what was only a handful of years ago, a monster rearing above all else on the political landscape...

The other advantage is that they ( Tories ) will finally face the kind of scrutiny that they avoid today because the media is happy to connive at the idea that Davidson is somehow not responsible for policy-making at Westminster so can body-swerve awkward questions. Just see how uncomfortable she is over the rape clause. With a small platoon of MPs, no studio can be avoided, no question dismissed. Accountability returns.

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/23/the-tories-are-coming/

Full article at link for those interested. I shamelessly quoted the bits I like since I'm of the same thoughts as Bateman.

kabayiri

I feel fortunate down here in "evil England".

In recent GE's I have been fortunate enough to vote for a good LibDem MP and then a good Conservative MP, because they were willing to listen to the pressing issues in our neighbourhood.

I wouldn't like to have to vote for any old SNP fodder put up for election, just because they were able to spell "independence".

Never mind the dogma, feel the quality

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, the unpersuadeable 30-35% are going Tory there's another realignment going on. However, there's a rump Labour core vote that will never in a million years vote Tory nor for something which guarantees right wing Tory Govts for years and they're going to have to go somewhere.

Support for independence is still solid. Tory gains are only useful in making previous Labour No's switch. And they will. Check out the end of this table where undecided independence voters say how likely they are to vote for independence if the Conservatives win in June. Undecideds do not seem very keen on a massive Tory majority.

http://i.imgur.com/aC7cHMx.png

Support for the Conservative party as 'a party' isn't growing. It's support for the Union/Leaving the EU polarising.

Now is the time to be asking for another referendum. The arguments for independence can wait until nearer the time of the vote in two years time. We still don't know what Brexit will bring us which will have to be taken into consideration.

Over the last few years the SNP have managed the unthinkable in dislodging Labour as the dominant party. The Tories, given they'll be facing the same stand off's Labour did in the coming year or two, and are still toxic to a large percentage of Scots in many areas should beware. May is not popular up here. And Davidson, treated with kid gloves for so long is going to have to sell Brexit and everything else that goes with a Conservative Govt directly now. That in itself should be a good watch and no more buffalos thank gawd. :cool:

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/23/the-tories-are-coming/

Full article at link for those interested. I shamelessly quoted the bits I like since I'm of the same thoughts as Bateman.

They don't have to sell anything in my opinion as it's the status quo, which Scots are doing well out of. If the Scottish economy tanks under the SNP, you'll still get your tax credits, benefit payments, NHS, etc... people will still have a roof over their head and food in their bellies.

The independence support has to sell the dream, because right now that's all it is. They're doing a poor job of it since support is slipping away, SNP support is slipping away the unionist side is consolidating rather than being split across multiple unionist parties and there's no evidence that demonstrably shows an independent Scotland is better off, the available evidence shows the opposite.

Soapbox oratory of an anti-Conservative flavour isn't going to win the argument for you.

IveSeenTheLight

mollycat wrote: »

ISTL.....fyi its 2017

Ok, fair doo's.
I must admit I assumed it was next year as I've never in my life experienced an election with such a short time frame.

I thought the reason it was called snap as it is simply called early.

Never let it be said that I cannot admit if I have made a mistake

davomcdave

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Ok, fair doo's.
I must admit I assumed it was next year as I've never in my life experienced an election with such a short time frame.

I thought the reason it was called snap as it is simply called early.

Never let it be said that I cannot admit if I have made a mistake

It's not an unusual time frame. 6-8 weeks is most usual.

Well done you for taking the scientific method approach to life and encouraging others to call out your mistakes. I try to do the same despite not being a scientist.