The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Quite obviously that's what she's trying to do.

I doubt that she'll succeed.

I suspect if that's her plan that she undoubtedly will succeed.

Not saying I agree with it, but it's not unreasonable to delay the referendum until the outcome of Brexit is known, and if that goes beyond 2021 and the Scottish government changes so that a referendum is no longer the will of Holyrood, that'll be that.

If (as I believe) there's no legal method by which Sturgeon can hold a referendum without the consent of Westminster then May has backed Sturgeon into a corner either by choice or by accident and it now hinges on the 2021 Holyrood elections.

Mistermeaner

A clever scots conservative party will campaign for (and get) more devolved powers from RoUK

SNP support will continue to wain as their in power performance get worse and worse

2021 may see some horrendous hung parliament where no one wants to form a collation with anyone else

Power defaults back to westminster ala northern ireland

common sense returns

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't see how it can happen before as the details will be unknown, so iScotland's future trading relationship with rUK won't be known, UK's trading relationship with the EU won't be known.

It almost looks like May has done this on purpose to force it past the 2021 elections. Which I don't agree with.

May hasn't done it on purpose. Parallel trade talks were a central part of the White Paper released a few weeks back. Looks like she's just had to accept the inevitable. She'll be spending the next two years negotiating on EU citizens, exit bills, NI, Gibraltar and borders.

When you say 'deal' Sturgeon doesn't specifically mention a trade deal, just what kind of deal the UK will end up with after negotiations end. She means Single Market access/membership ( among other things ). Not a possible trade deal in x years time.

She won't accept the can being kicked down the road for years for the simple reason that Scotland will be 'officially' out of the Single Market along with the UK in 2019 ( no matter what transitional measures are put in place ). Being officially out is what she and the Scottish Govt want to avoid at all costs, so bear this in mind.

The timetable remains the same at the present time.

Shakethedisease

Mistermeaner wrote: »

A clever scots conservative party will campaign for (and get) more devolved powers from RoUK

Where have you been hiding for the last few weeks ? Davidson's already been quoted talking about an 'almighty row' coming.

Holyrood at risk of grab for power by the Tories, MPs warn

THE Scottish Parliament risks being undermined by a Downing Street 'power grab' as Europe relinquishes control over key laws returning to the UK, the influential Brexit committee at Westminster has warned.

The status of the devolved administrations would be under threat if ministers decide to make many more decisions in London amid calls to protect Holyrood’s range of powers, according to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee.
Former Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael, the only Liberal Democrat on the committee, called the report a “devastating critique of the shambles that is the Conservative Brexit strategy” while others said its conclusions has been “unduly negative.

Tory ministers deny charges they are attempting to hoard powers and say they need to protect the integrity of the UK’s single market.
But the controversial report warns: “There is a real issue… of the protection of the position of the devolved nations in relation to decisions taken in London.”

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15201060.MPs_warn_Holyrood_at_risk_if_May_attempts_power_grab/

SNP support will continue to wain as their in power performance get worse and worse

2021 may see some horrendous hung parliament where no one wants to form a collation with anyone else

Power defaults back to westminster ala northern ireland common sense returns

You really should've started that portion of your post with 'Once upon a time'...

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

May hasn't done it on purpose. Parallel trade talks were a central part of the White Paper released a few weeks back. Looks like she's just had to accept the inevitable. She'll be spending the next two years negotiating on EU citizens, exit bills, NI, Gibraltar and borders.

When you say 'deal' Sturgeon doesn't specifically mention a trade deal, just what kind of deal the UK will end up with after negotiations end. She means Single Market access/membership ( among other things ). Not a possible trade deal in x years time.

She won't accept the can being kicked down the road for years for the simple reason that Scotland will be 'officially' out of the Single Market along with the UK in 2019 ( no matter what transitional measures are put in place ). Being officially out is what she and the Scottish Govt want to avoid at all costs, so bear this in mind.

The timetable remains the same at the present time.

Being officially out was always on the cards for the Scottish government no matter what happens.

Even if the 2 year timetable was adhered to the negotiations to split Scotland from the UK will take just as long if not longer. Which is why they talk about EEA/EFTA rather than EU membership, and it goes without saying that as a new nation you would need to apply to join with both. It won't be a simple seamless transition from the day after an indy Yes vote to EEA/EFTA membership. There will be all sorts of wrangling that will probably make Brexit look like playschool.

Scotland will be out of the single market one way or another, how long would be a complete and utter guess.

islandannie

mayonnaise wrote: »

You already posted this in the brexit thread.
There's really no need to copy and paste your guff all over the forum, Conrad.
Thanks for your cooperation.

Typical for the cultist SNP supporter.

You wish to close down any discussion point you disagree with.

Conrad is quite correct to post it on as many Forums as possible it must be brought to the attention of as many people as possible.

Lies should always be exposed. well done Conrad.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Being officially out was always on the cards for the Scottish government no matter what happens.

Even if the 2 year timetable was adhered to the negotiations to split Scotland from the UK will take just as long if not longer. Which is why they talk about EEA/EFTA rather than EU membership, and it goes without saying that as a new nation you would need to apply to join with both. It won't be a simple seamless transition from the day after an indy Yes vote to EEA/EFTA membership. There will be all sorts of wrangling that will probably make Brexit look like playschool.

Scotland will be out of the single market one way or another, how long would be a complete and utter guess.

All I can tell you is how I see it playing out. And imo Sturgeon is still going to go for a vote within the timetable May/EU have for formal negotiations ending. Single Market membership has been the No1 priority for the SNP for the last 6 months or so, so once it's confirmed that the UK is leaving it that's when the Scottish Govt will be looking to take it to the polling booths.

Sturgeon has just made a speech at Stanford Uni and from it, she's sticking 100% to everything she's said so far. No mentions of kicking cans down the road or deviations from anything she's said before on the basis of 'A' trade deal. Just once the terms of the deal is known and everyone else gets a vote.. ie after negotiations end.

https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world

Also of note for you.

Jamie Ross‏Verified account 1h1 hour ago
Intriguingly, Sturgeon says Westminster's power over Scottish referendums has "never been challenged in court". Expect to hear more of that.

Is most likely that if the UK transitions in phases out of the EU, Scotland will transition too.. but only as far as EEA/EFTA, no further if an independence vote results in a Yes vote. With full EU membership as far as the SNP is concerned, other parties/individuals/sectors may differ and want to stay there, to be re-activated/negotiated/put to the ballot box later.

islandannie

Shakethedisease wrote: »

All I can tell you is how I see it playing out. And imo Sturgeon is still going to go for a vote within the timetable May/EU have for formal negotiations ending. Single Market membership has been the No1 priority for the SNP for the last 6 months or so, so once it's confirmed that the UK is leaving it that's when the Scottish Govt will be looking to take it to the polling booths.

Sturgeon has just made a speech at Stanford Uni and from it, she's sticking 100% to everything she's said so far. No mentions of kicking cans down the road or deviations from anything she's said before on the basis of 'A' trade deal. Just once the terms of the deal is known and everyone else gets a vote.. ie after negotiations end.

https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world

Also of note for you. Is most likely that if the UK transitions in phases out of the EU, Scotland will transition too.. but only as far as EEA/EFTA, no further if an independence vote results in a Yes vote. With full EU membership as far as the SNP is concerned, other parties/individuals/sectors may differ and want to stay there, to be re-activated/negotiated/put to the ballot box later.

Any chance you can tell ordinary Scottish citizens how you propose to pay for Scottish voters benefits?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

All I can tell you is how I see it playing out. And imo Sturgeon is still going to go for a vote within the timetable May/EU have for formal negotiations ending. Single Market membership has been the No1 priority for the SNP for the last 6 months or so, so once it's confirmed that the UK is leaving it that's when the Scottish Govt will be looking to take it to the polling booths.

Sturgeon has just made a speech at Stanford Uni and from it, she's sticking 100% to everything she's said so far. No mentions of kicking cans down the road or deviations from anything she's said before on the basis of 'A' trade deal. Just once the terms of the deal is known and everyone else gets a vote.. ie after negotiations end.

https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world

Also of note for you. Is most likely that if the UK transitions in phases out of the EU, Scotland will transition too.. but only as far as EEA/EFTA, no further if an independence vote results in a Yes vote. With full EU membership as far as the SNP is concerned, other parties/individuals/sectors may differ and want to stay there, to be re-activated/negotiated/put to the ballot box later.

Yes I understand the point you're making and that it tallies with what Nicola has said/is saying still.

But the point I've tried to make a couple of times now is that even once the negotiated deal is known, whatever that turns out to be, there is still no guarantee that it will be ratified. It's only at the point of ratification that a vote could seriously take place. And if the 2 years are used for divorce proceedings rather than trade deal negotiations then the ratification will be even more years down the road. Can kicking appears to be the only real option.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Yes I understand the point you're making and that it tallies with what Nicola has said/is saying still.

But the point I've tried to make a couple of times now is that even once the negotiated deal is known, whatever that turns out to be, there is still no guarantee that it will be ratified. It's only at the point of ratification that a vote could seriously take place. And if the 2 years are used for divorce proceedings rather than trade deal negotiations then the ratification will be even more years down the road. Can kicking appears to be the only real option.

Bearing in mind this time last year it was almost impossible to imagine Cameron not being PM anymore, Osbourne as Chancellor etc.

Nicola Sturgeon has until May 2021 to be flexible with dates and ratification. Theresa May has to go back to the polls a full year earlier in 2020 with whatever deal or no deal she has up until that point. And we can't rule out events such as Corbyn resigning and a new more effective Labour leader entering stage left.

Neither of them have the luxury of kicking cans down any long roads. Not for May with the EU and not for Sturgeon for a second vote. And anyway since Nicola Strugeon has said she'll be outlining the 'next steps' in a few weeks time, it's probably safe to say that she's not hanging out with this. I would guess because of that risk of May walking away altogether in a few months time given all the rumours flying about.

Sam Coates Times‏Verified account 7h7 hours ago
Philip Hammond says "some" Tory MPs don't want Theresa May to strike an FTA with the EU. But who are they?? How many do they number??

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/849306924780847106