The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Conrad

See Remoaners, told you the UK would seem a beacon safe haven compared to lumbering EU;


Central Banks ditching the Euro in favour of Sterling;
The results were compiled by the Central Banking trade publication and HSBC.
It shows that bankers from around the world see the UK as a safer prospect for their reserve investments than the Eurozone. They favour the British currency as a long-term, stable alternative, despite uncertainty over Brexit which was formally triggered last week by the PM Theresa May.

Sterling has been strengthening versus the euro since the triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday. The pound has gained 2.63 percent resulting in an exchange rate of 1.1785 from 1.1483 previously.

The UK’s decision to quit the EU has not affected the popularity of sterling as an investment currency so far, the poll showed.
Seventy-one percent of respondents said the attractiveness of the pound was undimmed in the longer term.


Research also shows the stability of the Eurozone was this year’s greatest fear for the 80 central banks.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

See Remoaners, told you the UK would seem a beacon safe haven compared to lumbering EU;


Central Banks ditching the Euro in favour of Sterling;
The results were compiled by the Central Banking trade publication and HSBC.
It shows that bankers from around the world see the UK as a safer prospect for their reserve investments than the Eurozone. They favour the British currency as a long-term, stable alternative, despite uncertainty over Brexit which was formally triggered last week by the PM Theresa May.

Sterling has been strengthening versus the euro since the triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday. The pound has gained 2.63 percent resulting in an exchange rate of 1.1785 from 1.1483 previously.

The UK’s decision to quit the EU has not affected the popularity of sterling as an investment currency so far, the poll showed.
Seventy-one percent of respondents said the attractiveness of the pound was undimmed in the longer term.


Research also shows the stability of the Eurozone was this year’s greatest fear for the 80 central banks.

You already posted this in the brexit thread.
There's really no need to copy and paste your guff all over the forum, Conrad.
Thanks for your cooperation.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls.aspx

So John (I assume) must have been replying to this poll, otherwise he's not referring to the latest statistics when the BBC article was written. (In fact lord knows what he's on about because the published tables don't correlate with the quote in that article at all, perhaps the journo's misquoted?)

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf

Which was taken/published (cba to check) on 13/02/2017.

Not only does that not show what John is saying in the BBC article, it is the poll that Hamish is referring to.



Interestingly since then another Panelbase poll has been conducted on the topic. Taken/published on 17/03/2017.

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w10tablesforpublication170317.pdf



Which isn't quite so kind to the Scottish government with 51% saying there shouldn't be a referendum at all, a further 18% agree with the UK government position and only (again oddly) 32% believing it should be before Brexit.

That's two polls in a row where the support for the Scottish governments public position is only at 32%.

Edit: @Shakey - do you want to try again? I take it you can read the results in the pictures I uploaded?

Edit 2: Perhaps John was referring to the poll that appears to have been published on 17/03/2017. If he had advance knowledge then his assertion that it's finely balanced would be closer to the truth in that case where 51% say no referendum at all, and 49% say they do want a referendum. But that omits that 18% agree with the UK government position, leaving the 32% adrift on their own in agreement with the Scottish government.

Edit 3: Looking again at John Curtice's alleged comments, they're particularly disingenuous. In particular this sentence:

Whilst it may be true that both sides can find cause that another ballot should be held/should not be held. It is absolutely not true according to the data he is reading that the ballot should be held when the Scottish government are proposing if the polling is to be believed.

Well the Survation poll was the last one on the subject, and Hamish already posted those figures up. Any little nuggets of info you can glean from these much appreciated since they answers to direct questions ? Rather than all this do you want a ref, now, in 1 year, 2 years, before Brexit, after Brexit but before leaving, after Brexit altogether, next 10 years, never.. which allows interested parties to cherry pick their own preferences ..The answers seem pretty straightforward to me.

Who do you think should have the right to decide if there should be a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and independence? Should it be...

The Scottish Parliament : 61%
The Westminster Parliament : 39%


Do you think the Westminster Parliament should have the right to block a plan for a referendum in Scotland, even if it is agreed on and voted for by the Scottish Parliament?

Yes 42%
No 58%


Who do you think should have the right to decide the timing of a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and Independence, if it were to happen? Should it be….

The Scottish Parliament : 56%
The Westminster Parliament : 44%

http://survation.com/holyrood-decide-new-independence-referendum-majority-scots/

Survation interviewed 1,014 Scottish adults aged 16+ via telephone on the 28th and 29th March 2017 <--- Just after May's 'Just say No/Now is not the time' speech.

sss555s

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Panelbase asked the when (if at all) question/answers in the last month.


By 51% to 49% more people want a referendum shortly to deal with the EU issue than do not want one for decades or ever again.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You should know that it's not good to lump statistics with different contexts together like that.

It's more accurate to say 56% disagree with Theresa May and the UK government on the independence referendum issue.

Of that 56%, 43% of them do not want a referendum at all, so removing them leaves the 32% against the UK government position and 44% for the UK government position. Taken as a cohort itself, 42% of respondents would like a referendum now, 58% agree with the UK government. The remaining respondents (not included on those percentages) being those who don't want one at all.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

No, not making things up.

UK government position :- Now is not the time.
Scottish government position :- Referendum before Brexit is concluded.

Panelbase poll results you posted :-

A> 32% want another referendum now before the UK leaves the EU.

B> 19% want another referendum after the UK leaves the EU.

C> 25% do not want one for at least 20 years.

D> 24% do not want one ever again.

A agrees with the Scottish government only.

B and C agree with the UK government.

D disagrees with both the UK and Scottish governments.

So discounting D brings the number in the cohort down, therefore altering the percentages as I outlined above.

I have said that I do stuff like this for a living before haven't I?

The statement that Hamish said was 100% correct!

You have tried to manipulate the findings to suit your view point.

B: Do want another referendum all be it after Brexit when things are clearer.

The reason they change the questions to this from a straight yes or no before Brexit question is to get a more realistic indication of the feeling at the moment.
You changing the question to suit your view is all a bit Trickytrees lala land.

I was going to say don't give up the day job but... :eek: :lipsrseal

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well the Survation poll was the last one on the subject, and Hamish already posted those figures up. Any little nuggets of info you can glean from these much appreciated since they answers to direct questions ? Rather than all this do you want a ref, now, in 1 year, 2 years, before Brexit, after Brexit but before leaving, after Brexit altogether, next 10 years, never.. which allows interested parties to cherry pick their own preferences ..The answers seem pretty straightforward to me.

http://survation.com/holyrood-decide-new-independence-referendum-majority-scots/

Survation interviewed 1,014 Scottish adults aged 16+ via telephone on the 28th and 29th March 2017 <--- Just after May's 'Just say No/Now is not the time' speech.

Wait, was I correct about the Panelbase polls in that not only Hamish but John Curtice also were misrepresenting the data?

I'll take a look at the survation data when I get chance.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

It's very simple.

May has made the UK position clear on referendum timing.

May does not need to respond to Sturgeon's request. The majority of the UK public would prioritize Brexit over a regional issue.

Yes, understood. However once negotiations are complete there's no reason to stall any further on the matter. After all the UK and 27 other countries will all know what the deal is and will begin voting on it. Scotland will get a vote too and I can't see the problem there since it won't interfere with the preceding negotiations.

May has not been clear on referendum timing at all. She's going to be pressed hard for an clear answer in the next few weeks.

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

You already posted this in the brexit thread.
There's really no need to copy and paste your guff all over the forum, Conrad.
Thanks for your cooperation.

I didn't want the Nats to miss it, what with their slave like adoration of the Cult of EU, thought I'd remind them that Brexit all along was about making us even more a beacon of safety and enterprise and that's why the Scots wont be voting to leave.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

The statement that Hamish said was 100% correct!

You have tried to manipulate the findings to suit your view point.

B: Do want another referendum all be it after Brexit when things are clearer.

The reason they change the questions to this from a straight yes or no before Brexit question is to get a more realistic indication of the feeling at the moment.
You changing the question to suit your view is all a bit Trickytrees lala land.

I was going to say don't give up the day job but... :eek: :lipsrseal

I've not manipulated them at all.

Given the context of Holyrood asking for a section 30, and the UK government saying not now (which is not No) the "Never's" are irrelevant in gauging the feelings of those who want a referendum on when they would like that to take place, because they don't want one.

The "Never's" would be part of a different question, which appears to me to no longer be an option. There will be a referendum, the question is when. On both Panelbase polls on the question of "When?" only 32% agree with the Scottish government.

I know you so desperately want me to make a fool of myself and drop clangers (sounds familiar) instead of actually debating the points but you're going to have to try harder than that.

I will say you're 100% right regarding the change of question to a more nuanced set of outcomes to more accurately gauge opinion. Which is why the survation poll Shakey recently posted about (to which I will reply eventually) is a different beast as those who may have previously been in a more nuanced category now lump themselves in with a binary option. The more outcomes provided the greater the detail of the dataset, which in data mining translates to the more inputs you have the more accurate the picture of the outcome you're trying to obtain.

Such as:

Will you purchase a bike soon? Yes/No

Will have substantially different outcomes to...

Will you purchase a bike:

- in the next year
- in the next 2 years
- in the next 5 years
- in the next 10 years
- never

One more accurately allows you to determine the demand for bikes (if you were selling bikes), the other does not. One is blunt, the other... well... less blunt.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes, understood. However once negotiations are complete there's no reason to stall any further on the matter. After all the UK and 27 other countries will all know what the deal is and will begin voting on it. Scotland will get a vote too and I can't see the problem there since it won't interfere with the preceding negotiations.

May has not been clear on referendum timing at all. She's going to be pressed hard for an clear answer in the next few weeks.

Because those voting may reject the deal, which alters the circumstances. A referendum held before the outcome is truly known is based on the assumption that the negotiated deal that will be voted upon will be the outcome, that's not the case. It could be WTO (in which case you'd know an alternative outcome) or it could be a different deal or a transitional deal whilst the finer issues are ironed out before being put back to a vote. Sturgeon wants to pretend that the deal will be black and white by then - it simply won't be.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Wait, was I correct about the Panelbase polls in that not only Hamish but John Curtice also were misrepresenting the data?

I'll take a look at the survation data when I get chance.

There's no real point Tricky. Those that have asked direct questions like the Survation one have given the clearest indications. The rest have been breaking down the timing into all sorts of vague and non-comparable airy fairy questions.

Subsequently those airy fairy questions have meant the media can headline and screech headlines about how 'ONLY 23% want another referendum' ( taken from the 'do you want a referendum right now' column, ignoring those who wish one but maybe in a year or two years time ) ..and allow Davidson, The Express, the Telegraph etc to sucker gullible folks into thinking it's how people in Scotland feel, and they start repeating the same thing themselves ( see Mollycat ).

Originally Posted by mollycat
Clue; last time it was a massive majority did not want a 2nd Referendum !

It's a fluid and fast moving area of contention. But it's not helped by those commissioning polls not asking simple questions in a direct manner. Probably deliberately. Those of us who have been following Scottish politics and polls for a while know to look well, well past the headline figures.