The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There's no real point Tricky. Those that have asked direct questions like the Survation one have given the clearest indications. The rest have been breaking down the timing into all sorts of vague and non-comparable airy fairy questions.

Subsequently those airy fairy questions have meant the media can headline and screech headlines about how 'ONLY 23% want another referendum' ( taken from the 'do you want a referendum right now' column, ignoring those who wish one but maybe in a year or two years time ) ..and allow Davidson, The Express, the Telegraph etc to sucker gullible folks into thinking it's how people in Scotland feel, and they start repeating the same thing themselves ( see Mollycat ). It's a fluid and fast moving area of contention. But it's not helped by those commissioning polls not asking simple questions in a direct manner. Probably deliberately. Those of us who have been following Scottish politics and polls for a while know to look well, well past the headline figures.

Ah, you see.

I refer you to my post earlier regarding data mining techniques, it's incredibly basic for anyone else who understands the topic but it demonstrates the point.

"Airy fairy" as you call it is actually better in terms of gauging opinion. In doing so they've ascertained that only 32% (over 2 polls) agree with the Scottish government, you, Hamish and others on this thread over when a referendum should be held. The remainder either agree with the UK government or don't want one at all.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Because those voting may reject the deal, which alters the circumstances. A referendum held before the outcome is truly known is based on the assumption that the negotiated deal that will be voted upon will be the outcome, that's not the case. It could be WTO (in which case you'd know an alternative outcome) or it could be a different deal or a transitional deal whilst the finer issues are ironed out before being put back to a vote. Sturgeon wants to pretend that the deal will be black and white by then - it simply won't be.

Sturgeon has indicated that she's flexible on the timing. But it will come after negotiations have finished. It's May and the EU's own current timetable she's following if that changes, she's willing to change hers too. But she won't be hanging about for years waiting on any outcome. If it's a deal clear enough for France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta etc to vote on, then it's a deal clear enough for Scotland to vote on accepting or choosing another path too.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Panelbase poll results you posted :-

A> 32% want another referendum now before the UK leaves the EU.

B> 19% want another referendum after the UK leaves the EU.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I've not manipulated them at all.

It's very clear from the answers above that 51% want another referendum. You'd argue black is white!
Your failure to hold your hands up and admit when you're wrong is the reason why you have no credibility with anyone but the die hard no voters.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

It's very clear from the answers above that 51% want another referendum. You'd argue black is white!
Your failure to hold your hands up and admit when you're wrong is the reason why you have no credibility with anyone but the die hard no voters.

What did I actually say?

Can you point out where I've said that a referendum would not be held since the Holyrood vote?

I can explicitly show you where I've said one will be held, but the timing is the question now. Hence the questions on the polls which is why Hamish and now yourself are taking them out of context.

Honestly if you're not going to read my posts would you prefer I drew it for you using crayons and uploaded the picture? :rotfl:

You talk of credibility as if I need it or as if you have it. Neither are the case. You've consistently proven yourself to not understand certain topics particularly well, I've tried my best to help but you won't have it.

The poll questions are written in that way to ascertain how people feel about a referendum being held prior to, after Brexit or not at all. Now that we appear to be having an independence referendum due to the Holyrood vote the question is now when not if. In answering when, never is no longer an applicable answer, so I removed it from the cohort and revised the percentages. You then went on a tirade claiming I'm unable to do my job. Guess again smarty pants.

Edit: I find it astonishing that you want to castigate me for removing the staunch pro-union vote from the poll to clearly illustrate the feelings over when a referendum should be held. It's like you just want to argue with me rather than look at reality.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sturgeon has indicated that she's flexible on the timing. But it will come after negotiations have finished. It's May and the EU's own current timetable she's following if that changes, she's willing to change hers too. But she won't be hanging about for years waiting on any outcome. If it's a deal clear enough for France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta etc to vote on, then it's a deal clear enough for Scotland to vote on accepting or choosing another path too.

Argh you were so promising up until about half way.

Sturgeon has indicated that she's flexible on the timing. But it will come after negotiations have finished. It's May and the EU's own current timetable she's following if that changes, she's willing to change hers too.

If that was the case - entirely reasonable.

The EU may decide to extend the 2 year period. They may institute a transitional deal instead, they may just vote it down and we get WTO or they may accept the deal.

If it's a deal clear enough for France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta etc to vote on, then it's a deal clear enough for Scotland to vote on accepting or choosing another path too.

That's not reasonable. Because these countries and the UK will be determining if that deal is accepted, if negotiations are extended, if a transitional deal is used whilst negotiations continue, etc...

At that point in time it would not be right to ask Scottish voters the question because still the outcome may not be known. It's a hope that it will be known, nothing more. Which is wrong and unfair to the people of Scotland.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Argh you were so promising up until about half way.

If that was the case - entirely reasonable.

The EU may decide to extend the 2 year period. They may institute a transitional deal instead, they may just vote it down and we get WTO or they may accept the deal.

That's not reasonable. Because these countries and the UK will be determining if that deal is accepted, if negotiations are extended, if a transitional deal is used whilst negotiations continue, etc...

At that point in time it would not be right to ask Scottish voters the question because still the outcome may not be known. It's a hope that it will be known, nothing more. Which is wrong and unfair to the people of Scotland.

Nope. No trade deal within the two years.

No signed 'future' Brexit deal within two years, says Theresa May

The Prime Minister has confirmed that Britain's final signed trade deal with the EU will have to take place after the two-year Article 50 process and that the UK will act as a "third country"...

..This is important because it confirms UK acceptance of the final deal being negotiated under Article 218 of the EU Treaty, which means the entire EU27, including Spain and the regional Belgian parliaments such as Wallonia, will have a veto on the final deal.

http://news.sky.com/story/no-signed-future-brexit-deal-within-two-years-says-theresa-may-10824347

This either going to take years or the UK is crashing out with no deal at all.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Nope. No trade deal within the two years.

http://news.sky.com/story/no-signed-future-brexit-deal-within-two-years-says-theresa-may-10824347

This either going to take years or the UK is crashing out with no deal at all.

That kicks the independence referendum even further into the distance then.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

That kicks the independence referendum even further into the distance then.

No. Leaving the Single Market is Sturgeon's red line. Plus she/The Scottish Parliament only have a mandate until 2021 so any vote will be well before then. May might not even be PM by then.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No. Leaving the Single Market is Sturgeon's red line. Plus she/The Scottish Parliament only have a mandate until 2021 so any vote will be well before then. May might not even be PM by then.

I don't see how it can happen before as the details will be unknown, so iScotland's future trading relationship with rUK won't be known, UK's trading relationship with the EU won't be known.

It almost looks like May has done this on purpose to force it past the 2021 elections. Which I don't agree with.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It almost looks like May has done this on purpose to force it past the 2021 elections. Which I don't agree with.

Quite obviously that's what she's trying to do.

I doubt that she'll succeed.