The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Support for independence hasn't fallen

How do you know that? As far as I am aware a good percentage of Yes voters voted for Brexit ergo they could have quite easily changed their mind.

No doubt you will start quoting some poll but as we know they haven't been very reliable lately!

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's as simple as this Tricky. Lets say for talking sake in the next few years demand for independence in Scotland soars with opinion poll after opinion poll coming back with 60% plus wanting to leave the UK ( <--- this is not a prediction, I'm using the figure as an example ) and the SNP being returned at landslide levels election after election.

By which democratic and peaceful method would you suggest Scots use to leave the UK, should Westminster continue to block a referendum ?

You're just not seeing the full picture here in your efforts to concentrate on legalities. So if you could answer the above please that would be good. Thanks.

From your links. I've already posted about that. Should the Scottish Govt go down this route, it'll be court first, referendum later to establish legal matters. Not the other way round.

But the real point is how does a Scotland that wishes to dissolve the Union do so without the option of going to the ballot box ? In your own time...

In that scenario I would say exactly the same as I would say if the polls were as they are now. Holyrood has expressed a wish to hold a referendum, they have been told that's fine but you cannot dictate the date. I find that entirely reasonable due to the circumstances the UK finds itself in. Not only is that fair to the citizens of the UK but also to Scots who either don't know how they will vote or would stay in or leave the UK on the basis of the deal reached with the EU. May is 100% correct that our situation and that of the EU and therefore Scotland's in either scenario is in flux. Sturgeon has suggested a date based on timelines from May that are as much an unknown as the eventual deal. There's only one playing games here because if the deal is bad Sturgeon should look out for what is best for Scotland by lobbying to remain in the UK. (everyone knows she won't though).

If the Scottish government go outside their jurisdiction then you can be damn sure Sturgeon's opponents are coming down on her hard, it's a chance to make her position untenable and put a stop to an independence referendum that's not legally valid.

Using your argument if polls conducted show Dumfries and Galloway want to stay in the UK or if the Northern Isles want to they should have the right to hold a referendum on secession without the legal power to actually do so? What do you think the outcome would be once the result of those referenda were known?

Also I'd like to take issue with you portraying all Scots as victims in this. It is pro indy nationalists who are attempting to blackmail the vast majority of the rest of us in this country to do as they say or face the consequences whilst reveling in what they perceive as bumps in the road for the UK and EU negotiations. Do you hate the people in the rest of the UK that much that you actually appear to wish harm on them?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

In that scenario I would say exactly the same as I would say if the polls were as they are now. Holyrood has expressed a wish to hold a referendum, they have been told that's fine but you cannot dictate the date. I find that entirely reasonable due to the circumstances the UK finds itself in. Not only is that fair to the citizens of the UK but also to Scots who either don't know how they will vote or would stay in or leave the UK on the basis of the deal reached with the EU. May is 100% correct that our situation and that of the EU and therefore Scotland's in either scenario is in flux. Sturgeon has suggested a date based on timelines from May that are as much an unknown as the eventual deal. There's only one playing games here because if the deal is bad Sturgeon should look out for what is best for Scotland by lobbying to remain in the UK. (everyone knows she won't though).

So like May you're not questioning the right to hold a referendum at all. Just the timing ? Is that right ?

If the Scottish government go outside their jurisdiction then you can be damn sure Sturgeon's opponents are coming down on her hard, it's a chance to make her position untenable and put a stop to an independence referendum that's not legally valid.

They won't go outside their jurisdiction though. The point I was making is that the holding of a referendum might well BE within the Scottish Govt's jurisdiction without a section 30. This is untested in law thus far, since last time round Cameron caved and offered a Section 30 before courts got involved. The Scottish Govt might however be minded to test it now though.

Using your argument if polls conducted show Dumfries and Galloway want to stay in the UK or if the Northern Isles want to they should have the right to hold a referendum on secession without the legal power to actually do so? What do you think the outcome would be once the result of those referenda were known?

There are no councillors, MSP's nor MP's elected nor campaigning on the basis of pro-independence for the Northern Isles or D+G. If independence was simply a case of asking for it, and getting it..Scotland would've went independent in 2007. Nope you need some pro independence representitives for those areas elected in those areas first. That's how democracy works.

Also I'd like to take issue with you portraying all Scots as victims in this. It is pro indy nationalists who are attempting to blackmail the vast majority of the rest of us in this country to do as they say or face the consequences whilst reveling in what they perceive as bumps in the road for the UK and EU negotiations. Do you hate the people in the rest of the UK that much that you actually appear to wish harm on them?

No one is a victim here. There is just a body of opinion in Scotland that matters relating to Scotland would be better dealt with in Scotland. One size doesn't fit all politically in the UK anymore and hasn't been for quite some time. Sooner or later this will ( like Brexit ) manifest itself in a vote. We're in the end game now. Reduced to arguing about the ins and outs of even holding a referendum because one side is too afraid of the result... is not going to ultimately keep the UK together.

Scottish Labour is about to implode.. and the Scottish media due to Brexit are turning the turrets onto the Conservatives ( what they are most comfortable doing anyway ). The Scottish Govt is making all sorts of positive announcements from no more welfare sanctions from today, to possible free sanitary products. The Spanish veto is no more, Sturgeon is all over the world talking and acting as if Scotland is independent already.. Meanwhile the Tory party and their tame media make total ar**s of themselves. Have you seen the Sun's front page tomorrow ? With free poster ? Jee-sus Keeeer--ist !

Events are going to overtake all this very soon.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

if the polls are to be believed are vehemently opposed to Nicola's vainglorious Indyref2.
.

Really?

Because the polls I've seen do not remotely resemble that remark.

On the topic of who should be able to call a referendum....

From Survation:

Who do you think should have the right to decide if there should be a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and independence? Should it be...

The Scottish Parliament : 61%
The Westminster Parliament : 39%


Do you think the Westminster Parliament should have the right to block a plan for a referendum in Scotland, even if it is agreed on and voted for by the Scottish Parliament?

Yes 42%
No 58%


Who do you think should have the right to decide the timing of a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and Independence, if it were to happen? Should it be….

The Scottish Parliament : 56%
The Westminster Parliament : 44%


On the topic of whether Scotland should be dragged out of the EU because of English votes a majority say No.

From the National Centre for Social Research:

Scotland is a nation and should not be forced out of the European Union as a result of a UK-wide referendum.

Agree 51%
Disagree 47%

And on the topic of whether a referendum should be held in the next couple of years, Panelbase just did one where 27% of voters want a referendum within the next 1-2 years and another 23% want a referendum in about two years when the deal with the EU is known.

That's 50% that want another referendum in the very near future.

Which is pretty much the opposite of claiming Scotland is 'vehemently opposed' to another Indyref.

mollycat

The questions posed above all have a very obvious bias to them, (surprise, surprise ).

None specifically ask the question, "Do you want a 2nd independence Referendum"?

So to present the above as a rebuttal of what Tromking posted is disingenuous.

Wonder why the specific question wasn't quoted?

Clue; last time it was a massive majority did not want a 2nd Referendum !

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Scottish Labour is about to implode.. and the Scottish media due to Brexit are turning the turrets onto the Conservatives ( what they are most comfortable doing anyway ). The Scottish Govt is making all sorts of positive announcements from no more welfare sanctions from today, to possible free sanitary products. The Spanish veto is no more, Sturgeon is all over the world talking and acting as if Scotland is independent already.

I'm not realy a fan of poorly plotted fantasy fiction, but the bit in bold caught my eye

Talk about nanny-state cotton wool wrapping and cuddly, "progressive" policies; more tax payers money freely flushed down the lavvy as if it grew on trees.

Pamper everybody; in the hope of buying votes.

Can you imagine the laughing stock we would be as an independent country.

Of course the writer may have a personal interest in these "policies"; what the relevance to the rest of us is, who knows.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There are no councillors, MSP's nor MP's elected nor campaigning on the basis of pro-independence for the Northern Isles or D+G.

Did you think that statement through? Of course there isn't because they are still part of the UK....doh!

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So like May you're not questioning the right to hold a referendum at all. Just the timing ? Is that right ?

They have asked for a Section 30, I may disagree with what the Green's have done in facilitating that (doing what they said they wouldn't do) but they've asked for it. So really it should be allowed but I am of the exact same opinion that the timing should be at a time which is suitable not just for Scotland as it's not just Scotland affected by it.

Now what you've been saying up to now is that Sturgeon will hold a referendum before Brexit come hell or high water, my argument is that she doesn't have the ability to do that if Westminster do not grant it before Brexit and I believe this time there's a government who won't as there's bigger fish to fry currently.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They won't go outside their jurisdiction though. The point I was making is that the holding of a referendum might well BE within the Scottish Govt's jurisdiction without a section 30. This is untested in law thus far, since last time round Cameron caved and offered a Section 30 before courts got involved. The Scottish Govt might however be minded to test it now though.

It may well be untested in court, probably for good reason if you catch my drift, but the precedents laid down in history (2012) are against it. The language of the law (Scotland Act) is against it. What they are not against would be self-determination under the UN charter, which is a different ball game as I'm sure you're aware.

Testing it in court would be a hail Mary move and could well backfire and make her position untenable. I'm surprised you're advocating for the SNP to test it in court because it's quite clear they have a hill to climb to reach probably a narrow defeat let alone a victory. It would be an SNP PR and pro-indy disaster that would be splashed all over the papers.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There are no councillors, MSP's nor MP's elected nor campaigning on the basis of pro-independence for the Northern Isles or D+G. If independence was simply a case of asking for it, and getting it..Scotland would've went independent in 2007. Nope you need some pro independence representitives for those areas elected in those areas first. That's how democracy works.

That's not true, there are elected councillors in D&G (not the fashion brand) who have made this very call and 13 of 21 councillors in the Northern Isles have forced an investigation into secession from Scotland. So would you allow them to do the same as you're proposing Nicola and the SNP should or will?

That was the hypothetical I asked, because if it's OK for Scotland to ignore UK constitutional law then it's OK for D&G and the Northern Isles to stick two fingers up to Holyrood also. That would be an unintended consequence of a unilateral referendum on Scottish independence, anyone could take a secession case through the courts or perhaps not even have to and hold one anyway.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No one is a victim here. There is just a body of opinion in Scotland that matters relating to Scotland would be better dealt with in Scotland. One size doesn't fit all politically in the UK anymore and hasn't been for quite some time. Sooner or later this will ( like Brexit ) manifest itself in a vote. We're in the end game now. Reduced to arguing about the ins and outs of even holding a referendum because one side is too afraid of the result... is not going to ultimately keep the UK together.

I disagree. As a resident of England I find it awful that Scottish nationalists are cheering on Spain in attempting to use Gibraltar to blackmail the UK. If that blackmail was successful that would result in a lesser deal with the EU than might otherwise be possible and Scottish nationalists celebrate that. Essentially celebrating a defeat in the eyes of the other people they currently share a country with. That's not an endearing character trait, and one that makes little sense as a bad UK-EU deal is worse for the case for an independent Scotland, as we've been over many times.

We're not in the end game, we're just not talking about the economics because none of the pro-indy support on here will do so with any conviction. We're just talking mainly about flimsy topics that are not averse to malleable opinions/interpretations.

For example, you cannot ask the Scottish fishermen to vote to leave the UK and rejoin the EU, the very thing they wanted to escape in the first place before they know the deal between the UK and the EU. It may be that as part of the UK-EU deal that fishing rights remain largely the same as they are now, in which case the fishermen may well vote for independence. This is a story played out across all of Scottish industry, most people will not be so blindly pro-EU that they will vote for it regardless of their own personal safety and stability. They will want answers, and a referendum before a Brexit deal is ratified will not deliver that, Theresa May is 100% correct and Nicola appears to be alienating voters with this stance but galvanising the already converted - which doesn't help the cause.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Scottish Labour is about to implode.. and the Scottish media due to Brexit are turning the turrets onto the Conservatives ( what they are most comfortable doing anyway ). The Scottish Govt is making all sorts of positive announcements from no more welfare sanctions from today, to possible free sanitary products. The Spanish veto is no more, Sturgeon is all over the world talking and acting as if Scotland is independent already.. Meanwhile the Tory party and their tame media make total ar**s of themselves. Have you seen the Sun's front page tomorrow ? With free poster ? Jee-sus Keeeer--ist !

Events are going to overtake all this very soon.

The Spanish veto isn't no more, that aspect will now be part of a larger trading game. You might find that Theresa May gives concessions to Spain in order to maintain a veto on Scottish membership of the EU. That would be underhand and I wouldn't be for it but don't for a second think that it's beyond these people to do back room deals such as this. There are plenty of Spanish politicians who say they'll say No and plenty who say they'll say Yes. We don't know the reasons behind their stances.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mollycat wrote: »

Clue; last time it was a massive majority did not want a 2nd Referendum !

Panelbase asked the when (if at all) question/answers in the last month.

The answers were.....

32% want another referendum now before the UK leaves the EU.

19% want another referendum after the UK leaves the EU.

25% do not want one for at least 20 years.

24% do not want one ever again.

By 51% to 49% more people want a referendum shortly to deal with the EU issue than do not want one for decades or ever again.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Panelbase asked the when (if at all) question/answers in the last month.

The answers were.....

32% want another referendum now before the UK leaves the EU.

19% want another referendum after the UK leaves the EU.

25% do not want one for at least 20 years.

24% do not want one ever again.

By 51% to 49% more people want a referendum shortly to deal with the EU issue than do not want one for decades or ever again.

You should know that it's not good to lump statistics with different contexts together like that.

It's more accurate to say 56% disagree with Theresa May and the UK government on the independence referendum issue.

Of that 56%, 43% of them do not want a referendum at all, so removing them leaves the 32% against the UK government position and 44% for the UK government position. Taken as a cohort itself, 42% of respondents would like a referendum now, 58% agree with the UK government. The remaining respondents (not included on those percentages) being those who don't want one at all.