The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You should know that it's not good to lump statistics with different contexts together like that.

It's more accurate to say 56% disagree with Theresa May and the UK government on the independence referendum issue.

Of that 56%, 43% of them do not want a referendum at all, so removing them leaves the 32% against the UK government position and 44% for the UK government position. Taken as a cohort itself, 42% of respondents would like a referendum now, 58% agree with the UK government. The remaining respondents (not included on those percentages) being those who don't want one at all.

What on earth are you havering on about?

I've just given you clear polling data on this specific question and now you're making things up instead?

Filo25

To be honest its of dubious relevance what polling says on the matter anyway, a majority of the Scottish parliament is happy to support a referendum and I would have thought the argument should end there.

If that is unpopular with the Scottish people they can no doubt elect new representatives when they next have an election and can vote to Remain in the UK in the Referendum itself.

mayonnaise

Who cares about this polling anyway.

The EU referendum was held as a result of a manifesto commitment by a democratically elected Conservative Party.

Indyref will be held as a result of a manifesto commitment by a democratically elected Scottish National Party.

What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

What on earth are you havering on about?

I've just given you clear polling data on this specific question and now you're making things up instead?

No, not making things up.

UK government position :- Now is not the time.
Scottish government position :- Referendum before Brexit is concluded.

Panelbase poll results you posted :-

A> 32% want another referendum now before the UK leaves the EU.

B> 19% want another referendum after the UK leaves the EU.

C> 25% do not want one for at least 20 years.

D> 24% do not want one ever again.

A agrees with the Scottish government only.

B and C agree with the UK government.

D disagrees with both the UK and Scottish governments.

So discounting D brings the number in the cohort down, therefore altering the percentages as I outlined above.

I have said that I do stuff like this for a living before haven't I?

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

Who cares about this polling anyway.

The EU referendum was held as a result of a manifesto commitment by a democratically elected Conservative Party.

Indyref will be held as a result of a manifesto commitment by a democratically elected Scottish National Party.

What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

I care when the statistics are misrepresented.

I agree that polls are blunt tools, often wrong, but the lay-person misinterprets statistics with alarming regularity on these forums. Probably equal to that of politicians.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

To be honest its of dubious relevance what polling says on the matter anyway, a majority of the Scottish parliament is happy to support a referendum and I would have thought the argument should end there.

If that is unpopular with the Scottish people they can no doubt elect new representatives when they next have an election and can vote to Remain in the UK in the Referendum itself.

Which is why I removed D, the portion of the cohort that disagreed with both the UK and Scottish government stances from the statistics.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Which is why I removed D, the portion of the cohort that disagreed with both the UK and Scottish government stances from the statistics.

John Curtice, disagrees with you.

Polling conducted by Panelbase for The Sunday Times has found that half of voters either think a referendum should be held during the Brexit negotiations (as the first minister appears to have in mind) or that one should be held once the negotiations have been concluded (that is, just a little later than Ms Sturgeon's proposed timetable).

They counterbalance exactly the other half of Scotland which says that a poll should not be held at any point within the next few years.So this polling suggests that Scotland is evenly divided on the principle of having a relatively early second ballot. In short, both sides in the debate about whether a second referendum should be held can find polling evidence that seemingly bolsters their case.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39264468

Nicola Sturgeon has already stated several times that only when the negotiations are concluded and deal is off to be voted on by 27 other countries.. will a second vote also take place in Scotland. Seems fair enough to me. What the problem with that if the negotiations are all over with and the final deal is out for ratification ?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

John Curtice, disagrees with you.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39264468

Nicola Sturgeon has already stated several times that only when the negotiations are concluded and deal is off to be voted on by 27 other countries.. will a second vote also take place in Scotland. Seems fair enough to me. What the problem with that if the negotiations are all over with and the final deal is out for ratification ?

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls.aspx

So John (I assume) must have been replying to this poll, otherwise he's not referring to the latest statistics when the BBC article was written. (In fact lord knows what he's on about because the published tables don't correlate with the quote in that article at all, perhaps the journo's misquoted?)

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf

Which was taken/published (cba to check) on 13/02/2017.

Not only does that not show what John is saying in the BBC article, it is the poll that Hamish is referring to.



Interestingly since then another Panelbase poll has been conducted on the topic. Taken/published on 17/03/2017.

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w10tablesforpublication170317.pdf



Which isn't quite so kind to the Scottish government with 51% saying there shouldn't be a referendum at all, a further 18% agree with the UK government position and only (again oddly) 32% believing it should be before Brexit.

That's two polls in a row where the support for the Scottish governments public position is only at 32%.

Edit: @Shakey - do you want to try again? I take it you can read the results in the pictures I uploaded?

Edit 2: Perhaps John was referring to the poll that appears to have been published on 17/03/2017. If he had advance knowledge then his assertion that it's finely balanced would be closer to the truth in that case where 51% say no referendum at all, and 49% say they do want a referendum. But that omits that 18% agree with the UK government position, leaving the 32% adrift on their own in agreement with the Scottish government.

Edit 3: Looking again at John Curtice's alleged comments, they're particularly disingenuous. In particular this sentence:

So this polling suggests that Scotland is evenly divided on the principle of having a relatively early second ballot. In short, both sides in the debate about whether a second referendum should be held can find polling evidence that seemingly bolsters their case.

Whilst it may be true that both sides can find cause that another ballot should be held/should not be held. It is absolutely not true according to the data he is reading that the ballot should be held when the Scottish government are proposing if the polling is to be believed.

kabayiri

It's very simple.

May has made the UK position clear on referendum timing.

May does not need to respond to Sturgeon's request. The majority of the UK public would prioritize Brexit over a regional issue.

TrickyTree83

kabayiri wrote: »

It's very simple.

May has made the UK position clear on referendum timing.

May does not need to respond to Sturgeon's request. The majority of the UK public would prioritize Brexit over a regional issue.

And according to polling the majority of Scotland agrees. Consistently.

It's just the pro-indy agitators on this thread who appear to be trying to complicate the issue. Their position/statements are not borne out from the data.