The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

mollycat wrote: »

Not really listening are you; must be noisy in that echo chamber

Said it before, I'll say it once more.....analysing the motivations of party political orientated persons in the context of independence is completely pointless.

Even if a NO campaign is led by the tories, do you think sensible people will vote for the disaster of indepedence on that basis?

Do you think people will cut off their noses to spite their face on that basis?

In short, do you think scottish voters are daft?

The scottish electorate require far, far more credit than pro indy supporters give them.

Ludicrously idiotic politics to run an anti-tory independence campaign. That's what you do in elections, not referenda on such important issues. As brexit confirms these issues transcend party politics unless you're an SNP acolyte since they stand for division anyway.

Still haven't got good ideas for iScotland have they? I guess they're trying to draw attention away from that.

kabayiri

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

...
Still haven't got good ideas for iScotland have they? I guess they're trying to draw attention away from that.

One good idea would be to wean the Scottish economy off a big state future, moving to something with much lower costs.

But even that escapes the Socialists like Sturgeon. She is telling the Scottish people that the state can keep on spending, whilst enduring what will be a significant transition. Well, if Scottish independence was hard, it will be doubly hard to do alongside a Brexit.

I know a few people who wouldn't be affected : the SNP leadership team. Nicola and her close pals will still be rewarded handsomely, come what may.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I am right.

Your quote just furthers my point.

The UK will negotiate as the UK, which includes Scotland. If the Scottish government want to be a wasp in the ear during that time rather than trying to get concessions as part of Brexit for the good of the Scottish economy, that's their fault. They're telling lies to the Scottish people about the gravest threat to the Scottish economy to leverage another independence vote. The single market is not that important to Scotland, if the single market as you know it continues to exist.

The way to protect the Scottish economy would be to engage in useful discussions with the UK government to get a good deal when the UK leaves. If Scotland becomes independent there is no guarantee of EU membership, there's no guarantee around the contributions you may or may not make, and the probability that iScotland's economy will suffer more than under Brexit as part of the UK is greater than the probability of having a 2nd independence referendum, far greater.

Nicola talks of the "economic cliff edge" she sees in Brexit, whilst conveniently omitting the relative economic abyss that she is pushing Scotland towards.

I wouldn't bother arguing or labouring the point about Scotland not being in the EU as an actual reason to stay in the UK. Because it surely must obvious to most people.. that it's a stupendously daft one. You and others here should probably stop using it. :rotfl:

nickeardleybbc 2h2 hours ago
Asked MEP from Spain's governing party if they'd veto independent Scotland joining the EU. His answer? No. More on @BBCScotlandNews soon

<-- just watched this. Interesting piece from Brussels with a Scottish Labour MEP coming out for independence too as a bonus.

The UK will start negotiations as the UK you are correct. But underlying the negotiations will be Scotland, NI and Gibraltar. Sturgeon has been open and upfront about what will happen should Scotland be taken out of the Single market. 74% of Scots want full access to the Single Market either via the EU or a Norway style deal.

As for a referendum, well most of you started off in here since the Brexit vote insisting robustly that Scotland wouldn't be allowed a second referendum. Now it's that Scotland will have one, but it's just the date that will be dictated. See the pattern emerging there ?

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

This SNP narrative is getting to be along the lines of " If you don't give me all the toys I will scream and scream and scream".

I'm somewhat bemused at the SNP arguing to the long suffering Scottish voters that there is a cast iron certainty that they will be allowed into the EU immediately while at the same time that this must all be done while the UK is still a member of the EU or the certainty will somehow evaporate.

Then when the Neverendum is delayed to the end of Brexit negotiations (maybe 3 years after we have actually left) , having to then argue that joining the EU was still a cast iron certainty in spite of what was said before but that their policy is still to stay in the UK under subsidy until they have started up their Bank, their embassies, fheir defence forces and until they become solvent.

In the meantime we wait patiently until Sturgeon asks ever so nicely for an open ended agreement to hold a Neverendum at a time of her own choosing and then display some screamy faux outrage when she is told to ask again at another time after Brexit is done and dusted

Not sure that the EU is going to be the main thrust of the immediate future an independent Scotland would face. I saw this elsewhere and sincerely hope that Sturgeon considers presenting something along these lines in the run up to a second vote. Would be a very popular and yet pragmatic stance to take. Watch those polls rise..

"We will pursue EFTA as a transitional arrangement, until British trade relations are normalised, and until our economic and currency situation stabilises, at which point we will only seek full EU accession following a mandate to do so from the people of Scotland."

Negates a lot of arguments about trade/CFP and EU vetos too.

Long suffering Scots voters mainly vote SNP these days. The one for the council elections had the SNP on 46% with both Labour and the Tories unable to hit 20%. Both their conferences had tumbleweed blowing through as well. Not much in the way of attendance even when Theresa May was speaking.

.string.

The SNP have shown themselves to be untrustworthy.

Were I in May's shoes (I doubt if she would let me!), I would never promise, or imply as promised, a later referendum date beyond stating that "during Brexit Negotiations is not the right time", I would simply say that Referendum Requests should only be done where there was a clear and sustained appetite (*) in Scotland for Independance, not at a political whim.

As I recall Sturgeon said something like that.

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Not sure that the EU is going to be the main thrust of the immediate future an independent Scotland would face. I saw this elsewhere and sincerely hope that Sturgeon considers presenting something along these lines in the run up to a second vote. Would be a very popular and yet pragmatic stance to take. Watch those polls rise..

....

Kind of blows away the pretence that leaving the EU was so important that it gives a reason for a referendum.

Hypocritical as ever.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Kind of blows away the pretence that leaving the EU was so important that it gives a reason for a referendum.

Hypocritical as ever.

No it gives Scotland a best of both worlds scenario for a short transitional period of time, brings Yes to No voters back onboard, and shoots a lot of arguments stone dead in terms of trade with rUK and CFP.

Unless the EU come out loud and proud immediately regarding a postive remaining in the EU stance for Scotland, then the above would be the most pragmatic approach. Also worth stating that while the SNP are pro-EU there are other viewpoints and preferences which also must be considered going forward. Only 17% in yesterday's poll snapshot expressed an outright wish for a hard Brexit.

In short EFTA makes winning a referendum much more likely. Though EFTA is definitely not the SNP's preferred option for an independent Scotland. Remaining in the EU is. We'll all have to wait to see what the EU have to say about that though. However from BBC Scotland news tonight it does seem like the Spanish veto thing is dying a death at last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYIMvEvmwSs

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wouldn't bother arguing or labouring the point about Scotland not being in the EU as an actual reason to stay in the UK. Because it surely must obvious to most people.. that it's a stupendously daft one. You and others here should probably stop using it. :rotfl:

<-- just watched this. Interesting piece from Brussels with a Scottish Labour MEP coming out for independence too as a bonus.

The UK will start negotiations as the UK you are correct. But underlying the negotiations will be Scotland, NI and Gibraltar. Sturgeon has been open and upfront about what will happen should Scotland be taken out of the Single market. 74% of Scots want full access to the Single Market either via the EU or a Norway style deal.

As for a referendum, well most of you started off in here since the Brexit vote insisting robustly that Scotland wouldn't be allowed a second referendum. Now it's that Scotland will have one, but it's just the date that will be dictated. See the pattern emerging there ?

Right then.

Get down the bookies, put all your life savings and your house on Scotland being in the EU if you get a referendum and if you win it.

Go on.

Thought not, stop telling everyone it's nailed on because some people somewhere say 'Yes' whilst others elsewhere say 'No'. You have no idea, therefore EU membership is not guaranteed, otherwise you'd be down the bookies like I suggested.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

3rd poll in a row showing increasing support for Indy.

Mayhem's arrogance appears to be shifting the dial rapidly - before campaigning even starts.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Right then.

Get down the bookies, put all your life savings and your house on Scotland being in the EU if you get a referendum and if you win it.

Go on.

Thought not, stop telling everyone it's nailed on because some people somewhere say 'Yes' whilst others elsewhere say 'No'. You have no idea, therefore EU membership is not guaranteed, otherwise you'd be down the bookies like I suggested.

I'm not a gambling woman. And anyway, I was pointing out the sheer strangeness of trying to argue that Scotland shouldn't vote for independence because Scotland won't get into the EU. When the alternative is to be out of the EU anyway ? It's such a head scratching argument that it cannot be a serious one.

If I was to put money on it, roughly I'd go for a vote in late 2018/early 2019 and if it's a Yes.. and a transitional EFTA deal while independence and Brexit technicalities are sorted out. A safe harbour if you like and an interim/pragmatic best of both worlds till the shocks pass and the details are ironed out for a few years.

The economic campaign for an indy side will most likely be based on staying the Single Market in the immediate future, not the EU. Sturgeon has suggested it already by asking May to put an alternative deal forward for Scotland so is obviously willing, even if reluctantly, to concede full EU membership if it means staying in the Single Market by some means. I'd be willing to bet this would also include putting EFTA forward if it potentially could make for an easier independence win as a means to stay in the Single Market.