The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

beecher2 wrote: »

The tories have always been careful to say that of course Scotland could have a referendum, but they believe they shouldn't. Might demand certain timing, but May knows it would be a disaster to refuse all together.

Yes it'll be the timing imo too. They'll be banking on the fact that after Brexit is completed Scotland won't have the appetite to upset the applecart again, will be able to use the 'EU won't let you in' arguement and of course, EU nationals won't get a vote in any Scottish referendum taking place after the UK has left the EU. All of which are probably correct which is why Sturgeon and a fair swathe of Scots voters won't play ball with it.

The idea of sitting quietly by getting dragged out of the EU and/or Single Market twiddling thumbs until the Tories graciously 'allow' a referendum isn't something that is going to happen. 'Something' will be presented to Scottish voters even if May refuses a ref in 2018 because Sturgeon has also been perfectly consistent in her absolute belief that Scotland won't be taken out of the Single Market. And by the poll today, it seems that a full 74% of Scottish voters are in agreement with her on the Single Market.

Almost half of Scots 48% said an independent Scotland should be a full member of the EU, while a further 27% backed a Norway-style option of full single market access but not full membership.

Either it'll go to court/international courts or there will be an election substituting as a de-facto referendum. But Sturgeon will ask nicely for a section 30 first.

Ps I was quick as it popped up on my timeline just as I sat down with a cuppa after the morning school run.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Looks like Nicola isn't so keen as some of her supporters.....



Until there's certainty of a positive outcome the sorry saga will simply drag on and on. That's why no one is taking her seriously.

No lol, what's the old saying ? When your opponents are making mistakes, it's best to let them continue doing so for as long as possible. :cool:

elantan

Shake, zag, mayo , beecher ... have you watched today's FMQ yet ? Hilarious fun ... John Swinney was amazingly funny... didn't answer many questions but then May rarely does answer any ... but he was hilarious

Shakethedisease

elantan wrote: »

Shake, zag, mayo , beecher ... have you watched today's FMQ yet ? Hilarious fun ... John Swinney was amazingly funny... didn't answer many questions but then May rarely does answer any ... but he was hilarious

Caught clips of it, he was brilliant. So unlike himself as he's usually so quiet and earnest ( one of the reasons he didn't make for a good party leader ).. Lets see more of this John !

elantan

I think he has came out of his shell since Nicola took over, I often hear him laughing in the background ... would recommend you watch it all for a laugh

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No lol, what's the old saying ? When your opponents are making mistakes, it's best to let them continue doing so for as long as possible. :cool:

I prefer

Do not neglect your own, in order to weed another's field.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes it'll be the timing imo too. They'll be banking on the fact that after Brexit is completed Scotland won't have the appetite to upset the applecart again, will be able to use the 'EU won't let you in' arguement and of course, EU nationals won't get a vote in any Scottish referendum taking place after the UK has left the EU. All of which are probably correct which is why Sturgeon and a fair swathe of Scots voters won't play ball with it.

The idea of sitting quietly by getting dragged out of the EU and/or Single Market twiddling thumbs until the Tories graciously 'allow' a referendum isn't something that is going to happen. 'Something' will be presented to Scottish voters even if May refuses a ref in 2018 because Sturgeon has also been perfectly consistent in her absolute belief that Scotland won't be taken out of the Single Market. And by the poll today, it seems that a full 74% of Scottish voters are in agreement with her on the Single Market.

Either it'll go to court/international courts or there will be an election substituting as a de-facto referendum. But Sturgeon will ask nicely for a section 30 first.

Ps I was quick as it popped up on my timeline just as I sat down with a cuppa after the morning school run.

It's exactly what is going to happen, just because you disagree with it doesn't mean it won't. All your pie in the sky 'dissolve' Holyrood exceptions won't come to pass either. Westminster is in charge of constitutional affairs, they will choose if you have a binding referendum and when that may happen.

Nicola is using language to encourage you whilst making no commitment to it at all. Because she knows she doesn't have the power legally to call it no matter what you blather on about on here.

Shaka_Zulu

From the quoted poll.

I suspect this is closer to the truth

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's exactly what is going to happen, just because you disagree with it doesn't mean it won't. All your pie in the sky 'dissolve' Holyrood exceptions won't come to pass either. Westminster is in charge of constitutional affairs, they will choose if you have a binding referendum and when that may happen.

Nicola is using language to encourage you whilst making no commitment to it at all. Because she knows she doesn't have the power legally to call it no matter what you blather on about on here.

Yes, yes you're so right...

Although the British government could withhold the legal authority for a vote, it now appears focused on determining the date instead.

“It’s looking inevitable, I don’t think we’re in any position to stop it happening,” said one minister close to the discussions. Another person briefed on Downing Street’s thinking said: “ The debate is only going to be about the date.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3edbbc7e-04ea-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

And you think Sturgeon will ask for a section 30, May will say 'sure you can have one, but not yet' and Sturgeon will say 'ok fine'.

She won't, neither will the Scottish Govt as an institution, nor 56 of 59 of Scotland's current Westminster MP's. You're going to have a big problem selling that one to the Scots/the EU/rest of the world. And the courts, both domestic and international. Good luck with that, because you're going to need it.

International law is clear that the right to national self-determination trumps internal constitutional concerns. Otherwise all multi-nation states, such at the UK, could become dictatorships of the majority nation.

There is no point where the UK government can restrict the right to self-determination of Scotland.

The most likely outcome is an advisory referendum anyway. Held at Holyrood's discretion after a vote to pass the bill in Holyrood by the Scottish Govt. Westminster will be free to recognise the result or not. But Westminster should really get used to the fact that unless May does something truly u-turny in the next few weeks regarding Scotland that one will be held. The EU will be aware there is the likelyhood of one being held.. and therefore, negotiations with the UK will have to take place taking the likelyhood of a second referendum and possible Scottish independence in the next few years into account. Regardless of what timings and dates Westminster would rather instead.

Shakethedisease

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

From the quoted poll.

I suspect this is closer to the truth

Polls are only snapshots. But the last three have had increases in support for independence and Sturgeon still has the best part of two years (time) on her side. The polls will ebb and flow no doubt over the next year or so.