The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

.string.

The Scots did their self-determination thing about 2 1/2 years ago. The SNP have been ignoring that for exactly the same time.

Obsession, obsession, obsession.

Bluster away Shakey but you won't change the Real World.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes, yes you're so right...

https://www.ft.com/content/3edbbc7e-04ea-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

And you think Sturgeon will ask for a section 30, May will say 'sure you can have one, but not yet' and Sturgeon will say 'ok fine'.

She won't, neither will the Scottish Govt as an institution, nor 56 of 59 of Scotland's current Westminster MP's. You're going to have a big problem selling that one to the Scots/the EU/rest of the world. And the courts, both domestic and international. Good luck with that, because you're going to need it.



The most likely outcome is an advisory referendum anyway. Held at Holyrood's discretion after a vote to pass the bill in Holyrood by the Scottish Govt. Westminster will be free to recognise the result or not. But Westminster should really get used to the fact that unless May does something truly u-turny in the next few weeks regarding Scotland that one will be held. The EU will be aware there is the likelyhood of one being held.. and therefore, negotiations with the UK will have to take place taking the likelyhood of a second referendum and possible Scottish independence in the next few years into account. Regardless of what timings and dates Westminster would rather instead.

I am right.

Your quote just furthers my point.

The UK will negotiate as the UK, which includes Scotland. If the Scottish government want to be a wasp in the ear during that time rather than trying to get concessions as part of Brexit for the good of the Scottish economy, that's their fault. They're telling lies to the Scottish people about the gravest threat to the Scottish economy to leverage another independence vote. The single market is not that important to Scotland, if the single market as you know it continues to exist.

The way to protect the Scottish economy would be to engage in useful discussions with the UK government to get a good deal when the UK leaves. If Scotland becomes independent there is no guarantee of EU membership, there's no guarantee around the contributions you may or may not make, and the probability that iScotland's economy will suffer more than under Brexit as part of the UK is greater than the probability of having a 2nd independence referendum, far greater.

Nicola talks of the "economic cliff edge" she sees in Brexit, whilst conveniently omitting the relative economic abyss that she is pushing Scotland towards.

.string.

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

From the quoted poll.

I suspect this is closer to the truth

I've not seen that type of poll presentation before.

It's interesting to note that the middle two numbers are 7% and 2%, representing a crude value of swing potential. On that basis, assuming, a small swing, the maximum potential is 2% to "Yes" and 7% to "No".

Not that we would ever trust polls when it suits us not to, eh Shakey!

.string.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I am right.

Your quote just furthers my point.

The UK will negotiate as the UK, which includes Scotland. If the Scottish government want to be a wasp in the ear during that time rather than trying to get concessions as part of Brexit for the good of the Scottish economy, that's their fault. They're telling lies to the Scottish people about the gravest threat to the Scottish economy to leverage another independence vote. The single market is not that important to Scotland, if the single market as you know it continues to exist.

The way to protect the Scottish economy would be to engage in useful discussions with the UK government to get a good deal when the UK leaves. If Scotland becomes independent there is no guarantee of EU membership, there's no guarantee around the contributions you may or may not make, and the probability that iScotland's economy will suffer more than under Brexit as part of the UK is greater than the probability of having a 2nd independence referendum, far greater.

Nicola talks of the "economic cliff edge" she sees in Brexit, whilst conveniently omitting the relative economic abyss that she is pushing Scotland towards.

This SNP narrative is getting to be along the lines of " If you don't give me all the toys I will scream and scream and scream".

I'm somewhat bemused at the SNP arguing to the long suffering Scottish voters that there is a cast iron certainty that they will be allowed into the EU immediately while at the same time that this must all be done while the UK is still a member of the EU or the certainty will somehow evaporate.

Then when the Neverendum is delayed to the end of Brexit negotiations (maybe 3 years after we have actually left) , having to then argue that joining the EU was still a cast iron certainty in spite of what was said before but that their policy is still to stay in the UK under subsidy until they have started up their Bank, their embassies, fheir defence forces and until they become solvent.

In the meantime we wait patiently until Sturgeon asks ever so nicely for an open ended agreement to hold a Neverendum at a time of her own choosing and then display some screamy faux outrage when she is told to ask again at another time after Brexit is done and dusted

beecher2

Interesting piece on Scotland Tonight stating that the 15% in the middle are mostly labour and lib dem supporters. A tory led or Scotland in Union led campaign maybe wouldn't play too well with them, so wonder if it will be left to Scottish Labour. Interesting times.

Don't think many commentators are suggesting that there won't be a second referendum, just seems the timing is what people aren't sure of.

.string.

beecher2 wrote: »

Interesting piece on Scotland Tonight stating that the 15% in the middle are mostly labour and lib dem supporters. A tory led or Scotland in Union led campaign maybe wouldn't play too well with them, so wonder if it will be left to Scottish Labour. Interesting times.

Don't think many commentators are suggesting that there won't be a second referendum, just seems the timing is what people aren't sure of.

Perhaps in the long grass.


2045?

Thrugelmir

beecher2 wrote: »

Interesting piece on Scotland Tonight stating that the 15% in the middle are mostly labour and lib dem supporters. A tory led or Scotland in Union led campaign maybe wouldn't play too well with them, so wonder if it will be left to Scottish Labour. Interesting times.

Corbyn isn't going to hold the reins for ever either. Incoming leader. New show in town.

mollycat

beecher2 wrote: »

Interesting piece on Scotland Tonight stating that the 15% in the middle are mostly labour and lib dem supporters. A tory led or Scotland in Union led campaign maybe wouldn't play too well with them, so wonder if it will be left to Scottish Labour. Interesting times.
.

Not really listening are you; must be noisy in that echo chamber

Said it before, I'll say it once more.....analysing the motivations of party political orientated persons in the context of independence is completely pointless.

Even if a NO campaign is led by the tories, do you think sensible people will vote for the disaster of indepedence on that basis?

Do you think people will cut off their noses to spite their face on that basis?

In short, do you think scottish voters are daft?

The scottish electorate require far, far more credit than pro indy supporters give them.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Interesting piece on Scotland Tonight stating that the 15% in the middle are mostly labour and lib dem supporters. A tory led or Scotland in Union led campaign maybe wouldn't play too well with them, so wonder if it will be left to Scottish Labour. Interesting times.

Don't think many commentators are suggesting that there won't be a second referendum, just seems the timing is what people aren't sure of.

As far as anyone can tell, the person responsible for granting the referendum has said no, and if not no, certainly not yet. It will not be on SNP terms during Brexit.

mrginge

mollycat wrote: »

Not really listening are you; must be noisy in that echo chamber

Said it before, I'll say it once more.....analysing the motivations of party political orientated persons in the context of independence is completely pointless.

Even if a NO campaign is led by the tories, do you think sensible people will vote for the disaster of indepedence on that basis?

Do you think people will cut off their noses to spite their face on that basis?

In short, do you think scottish voters are daft?

The scottish electorate require far, far more credit than pro indy supporters give them.

However much certain people want to push a tories vs everyone else agenda, the reality is exactly as you say.