The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

Aye I laughed at the own goal myself ...

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Wind your neck in thank you. The Single Market has been an absolute consistent red line. When Theresa May hinted at leaving it at the Conservative conference things kicked up a notch. When she confirmed it a few weeks back indyref2 got kicked up several more notches.

SINGLE MARKET. If it looks like Scotland won't have full access or will be taken out of the SINGLE MARKET it doesn't matter where the polls are, indy support at 28% or 68%. Sturgeon and Patrick Harvie will take Scotland back to the polls regardless. There's no need for you or others to worry whatsoever about polls or what pro-indy commentators might be saying on the internet. The position from Sturgeon has been consistent throughout.

Soft Brexit for the UK ( stay in Single Market ) or Soft Brexit/Special deal for Scotland ( stay in Single Market ) or indyref 2 ( stay in Single Market ). Is this clear enough for you ?

The Scottish Govt won't be a part of UK/EU negotiations. So how well or not that goes is up to Theresa May and her negotiators, and vice versa re the EU. We'll have to wait and see what happens when things get going.

No need to be rude shakey.

I'm just trying to understand the SNP position.
On the one hand it's 'wait and see until autumn 2018'
On the other hand it's 'SM is a red line'

Well that red line has been crossed already -
There won't be a special deal for Scotland
There won't be membership of the SM

Neither of those are going to change. The only open question is how much (if any) SM access can be negotiated.

So the question is simple.

Do you want those negotiations to fail?

Hintza

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Worrying times Hintza

I fail to see why it is worrying times for me, things are moving along nicely Nicola is alienating more and more of the Scottish population every time she opens her mouth. Which as even you will have to agree is pretty much a constant monologue.

But what has really vexed me is your chart on utility exports to the UK. Can you please explain your thoughts on this? I am assuming you think this is a huge positive?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But you've GOT to stop the Scottish Office sending out unintentional howlers like this one tonight..

elantan wrote: »

Aye I laughed at the own goal myself ...

Just in the interests of, well, accuracy....

The comments Shakey inserted, presumably from twitter, regarding a third of the 'black hole' disappearing are incorrect.

The deficit 'black hole' is referring to tax revenue - Scotland at current spending levels has a £15bn annual deficit which is unsustainable for an economy our size... Around 10% of GDP vs just 4% for rUK as a whole.

The exports of utilities to England refer to trade. Tax revenue on that trade is a fraction of the total trade and is already assumed in the statistics.

So pointing out the total value of utility exports does not in any way adjust the size of the Scottish deficit. It wasn't an own goal. And if Scotland is to have a reasonable chance of Indy and staying in the EU it seems rather important to address how we'd tackle the completely genuine deficit 'black hole' problem sooner rather than later....

Watching the masses on Twitter be ignorant as to the difference between export figures and tax revenue - or more often just outright deficit deniers - doesn't fill me with a lot of hope to be honest.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mrginge wrote: »

-
There won't be a special deal for Scotland
There won't be membership of the SM

Neither of those are going to change. The only open question is how much (if any) SM access can be negotiated.

So the question is simple.

Do you want those negotiations to fail?

Can't speak for Shakey but if that's going to be the Westminster approach then Scotland is better off out of the Uk and England can do what it likes.

If Theresa Mayhem wants to save the Union she has had a perfectly workable plan for Scotland to stay in the SM while E&W leave presented to her.

The first formal discussion of it is due today.... So we'll see shortly.

mrginge

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Can't speak for Shakey but if that's going to be the Westminster approach then Scotland is better off out of the Uk and England can do what it likes.

If Theresa Mayhem wants to save the Union she has had a perfectly workable plan for Scotland to stay in the SM while E&W leave presented to her.

The first formal discussion of it is due today.... So we'll see shortly.

oh Hamish you know perfectly well that this 'plan' has been widely discredited across the continent and has zero prospect of being adopted.

It's a mechanism to manufacture a division and nothing more. Surely a man of your calibre understands this?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mrginge wrote: »

It's a mechanism to manufacture a division and nothing more. Surely a man of your calibre understands this?

Almost exactly the same plan has been presented by Wales and now Northern Ireland is calling for something similar... I'd expect Gibraltar to be along shortly with their own version too.

So if you believe it's all a secessionist plot - then you have bigger problems than just Scotland.

mrginge

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Almost exactly the same plan has been presented by Wales and now Northern Ireland is calling for something similar... I'd expect Gibraltar to be along shortly with their own version too.

So if you believe it's all a secessionist plot - then you have bigger problems than just Scotland.

The welsh proposal is for one approach in the whole of the UK, not just Wales. It calls for UK wide SM membership alongside FoM restrictions.

The SNP proposal is for having some rules in Scotland and different rules in rUK.

So nothing like 'almost exactly the same plan' then :rotfl:

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just in the interests of, well, accuracy....

The comments Shakey inserted, presumably from twitter, regarding a third of the 'black hole' disappearing are incorrect.

The tweets I posted were meant to highlight the general amusement at the Scottish Office. If there was any substance behind the 'deficit gone at a stroke line' I'd have posted a bit more detail than that ! As would half of Scotland on twitter.

So, no that tweet wasn't intended to be taken seriously not even by the person who posted it. No more than 'bright as a black oot' was. For the avoidance of doubt.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

The welsh proposal is for one approach in the whole of the UK, not just Wales. It calls for UK wide SM membership alongside FoM restrictions.

The SNP proposal is for having some rules in Scotland and different rules in rUK.

So nothing like 'almost exactly the same plan' then :rotfl:

The Scottish one also has it's No1 option as UK wide SM membership.

I see the Times is reporting this this morning. I seriously doubt the SNP will abandon full EU membership as a policy. But as I've often stated myself, it does make sense to keep all options open over the next 18 months. Especially given all the hysterics over as yet hypothetical future iScotland/rUK trade.

The SNP is close to ditching one of its longest-held principles for Scottish independence — full membership of the European Union, The Times has learnt.

Senior party figures want to adopt a Norway-style model under which an independent Scotland would stay inside the single market, but outside the EU, after Brexit, according to sources. They believe that this would allow Scotland to retain the benefits of the European single market while continuing to trade within the UK as it does now.

Under the new strategy, if Scots voted for independence, this would result in the country being in the European Free Trade Area and part of the European Economic Area, but outside the EU — the same as Norway. Scotland would have to pay the EU for this privilege and allow free movement of people from the EU. It would also mean that Scotland would not have a say on EU rules.


However, this option would give Scotland control over fishing and would enable the country to be “semi-detached” from Europe and the UK.
Crucially, this option would also leave Scotland and the UK outside the EU customs union and it is this that SNP managers believe would allow an open border for trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK.


A senior SNP source said that this option would represent the “best of both worlds” and would counter unionist arguments that the SNP was prepared to throw away its biggest market — the UK — in favour of its second biggest market, the EU. The source added that Scotland could become a full EU member at a later date.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/455fe294-e66f-11e6-a93a-4fa396e7e4ed

I'd await the SNP conference though for confirmation of anything in this direction. So many variables still in play and unknown.