The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Or in other words -

Do you think the Scottish economy will get a lot worse because of Brexit

Yes 22%
No 62%

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Just so I am clear.

Is the proposal from SNP that the "UK" entity be redefined to just those countries which voted to remain in the EU. This would presumably be Scotland and NI then?

The EU clearly has arrangements with a member called the "UK" but I would guess it doesn't preclude parts of this entity leaving.

No. Sturgeon's proposals are for Scotland only, the Scottish Govt can't speak for NI. These proposals are asking May/UK Govt to put forward/sponsor in effect a separate deal for Scotland during negotiations which would allow Scotland in theory to stay both within the UK and the Single Market.

This is what Scottish Labour and Lib Dems would prefer and Sturgeon while citing independence as a first preference of course, agreed to look at ALL possible options for Scotland to stay within both the Single Market and the UK. These proposals are the result. They're also the reason why Sturgeon won't jump the gun calling for a referendum right now.

May/UK Govt can dismiss them, or put them to the EU. It looks like May is going to dismiss them herself as things stand. But who knows.

If she does, this leaves Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems with nothing to punt to Scottish remain voters other than a Hard Tory led Brexit and a UK Tory Govt for perhaps the next decade plus. This will be a difficult task for them to sell to their own voters and members. Sturgeon gets to punt a second indy ref or 'some kind of vote' against a Hard Tory led Brexit etc etc. A not so difficult task for her own voters, and those remain voters from other parties who aren't keen on either Brexit and/or Tories.

I hope this is clear re current Scottish politics. Sturgeon is laser focused on Holyrood, the other Scottish parties and Scottish voters. Not Westminster or the latest 'Sturgeon slapped down by EU/Sturgeon's bluffing' UK press release right now. Nice as they are for you all to read.

All she needs is for May to say No to a separate Scotland deal, then trigger Article 50. Et voila, Scottish Labour and Lib Dems are in deep trouble indeed with their own remain voters and Sturgeon gets to say she's tried absolutely everything else but... back to the polls Scotland goes ( with the conveniently already prepared in Holyrood new referendum bill ). After May also refuses another referendum boosting support for independence would be good too.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

What if the UK government uses this possibility to try and force negotiations with the EU to reach a conclusion before autumn 2018?

The threat of a Scottish indy referendum could work to our advantage in getting an early deal.

Personally, I think there is a strong chance of an interim leaving deal being agreed, with a longer term deal sat in negotiations.

They could try I suppose. But..

THE political will exists to give Nicola Sturgeon more than two years to make Scotland independent, enabling the nation to remain in the EU as a sovereign state when the UK leaves, according to an influential Brussels politician.

Philippe Lamberts, the co-chairman of the European Green Party/European Free Alliance, said he saw no obstacle to an independent Scotland joining the EU, and that the 24-month timetable between Article 50 being triggered and the UK leaving could be extended, allowing the First Minister more time to achieve her ambition.

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15020616.Senior_MEP_says_an_independent_Scotland_could_take_the_UK_s_place_in_the_EU/


I have no idea just like you what's in store regarding this, but some generous language being thrown about from some quarters at times regarding Scotland.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No. Sturgeon's proposals are for Scotland only, the Scottish Govt can't speak for NI. These proposals are asking May/UK Govt to put forward/sponsor in effect a separate deal for Scotland during negotiations which would allow Scotland in theory to stay both within the UK and the Single Market.
...

Presumably, PM May can't float this to the EU (if she were inclined) until she knows there is a clear mandate for Scottish independence + EU membership ?

Without a mandate the EU negotiators could turn around and say that this all sounds like "Cameron reforms mark 2" !

I think Clapton is right. You need to establish the level of support for iScotland + Europe pretty soon.

gfplux

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No. Sturgeon's proposals are for Scotland only, the Scottish Govt can't speak for NI. These proposals are asking May/UK Govt to put forward/sponsor in effect a separate deal for Scotland during negotiations which would allow Scotland in theory to stay both within the UK and the Single Market.

This is what Scottish Labour and Lib Dems would prefer and Sturgeon while citing independence as a first preference of course, agreed to look at ALL possible options for Scotland to stay within both the Single Market and the UK. These proposals are the result. They're also the reason why Sturgeon won't jump the gun calling for a referendum right now.

May/UK Govt can dismiss them, or put them to the EU. It looks like May is going to dismiss them herself as things stand. But who knows.

If she does, this leaves Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems with nothing to punt to Scottish remain voters other than a Hard Tory led Brexit and a UK Tory Govt for perhaps the next decade plus. This will be a difficult task for them to sell to their own voters and members. Sturgeon gets to punt a second indy ref or 'some kind of vote' against a Hard Tory led Brexit etc etc. A not so difficult task for her own voters, and those remain voters from other parties who aren't keen on either Brexit and/or Tories.

I hope this is clear re current Scottish politics. Sturgeon is laser focused on Holyrood, the other Scottish parties and Scottish voters. Not Westminster or the latest 'Sturgeon slapped down by EU/Sturgeon's bluffing' UK press release right now. Nice as they are for you all to read.

All she needs is for May to say No to a separate Scotland deal, then trigger Article 50. Et voila, Scottish Labour and Lib Dems are in deep trouble indeed with their own remain voters and Sturgeon gets to say she's tried absolutely everything else but... back to the polls Scotland goes ( with the conveniently already prepared in Holyrood new referendum bill ). After May also refuses another referendum boosting support for independence would be good too.

I don't live in Scotland, in fact I don't live in the U.K.
What I know is that anyone living in North London or Birmingham has no idea what someone living in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Brussels, Munich or Paris thinks.
I wonder about some of the posters on this thread who have very strong opinions about Scotland and what Scottish people want. Have these people ever even visited Scotland. Many of them even hide where they live to avoid others making assumptions about their attitudes.
From a distance I see a London concentric British Government thinking little about the regions of England let alone Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland.

Nothing to do with anything, but I like the first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. She has raised the awareness of Scotland and she keeps it in the news for all the right reasons.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Presumably, PM May can't float this to the EU (if she were inclined) until she knows there is a clear mandate for Scottish independence + EU membership ?

Without a mandate the EU negotiators could turn around and say that this all sounds like "Cameron reforms mark 2" !

I think Clapton is right. You need to establish the level of support for iScotland + Europe pretty soon.

May can float this during EU negotiations as soon as they start should she wish. In order to prevent a Scottish referendum and/or a reflection of what one of the constituent parts of the UK voted for. And if she has any sense she would, and allow the EU themselves to dismiss it out of hand. Either that or she's scared they might agree. These are proposals which keep Scotland both in the Single Market and the UK. Not for independence.

However, like I've already pointed out to you and others here several times over. This is just, if not more, about Holyrood and the closing down of any alternative options out there to a second independence referendum.

The YouGov poll today was a large ( sample ) one. Also recently the SNP undertook a huge public conversation exercise asking Scots residents for their views and reaching a 2 million target of responses. Am pretty sure they well know the state of play by now, even by postcode.

Sturgeon seems pretty confident still at First Minsters Questions today.

"I am determined to save Scotland from Brexit." Most telling #FMQs line so far from @NicolaSturgeon.

And Partick Harvie ( Greens ) is positively gagging for it.

Mr Harvie calls for no delay in the legislation that will keeps Scotland's option for indyref2 open.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38636241

Still, saying that I see Theresa May has officially welcomed the Scottish Govt's paper and proposals today as there is a gathering of ministers from the devolved parliaments. Saying Scotland should be fully engaged in the Brexit process. Let's see.

islandannie

gfplux wrote: »

I don't live in Scotland, in fact I don't live in the U.K.
What I know is that anyone living in North London or Birmingham has no idea what someone living in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Brussels, Munich or Paris thinks.
I wonder about some of the posters on this thread who have very strong opinions about Scotland and what Scottish people want. Have these people ever even visited Scotland. Many of them even hide where they live to avoid others making assumptions about their attitudes.
From a distance I see a London concentric British Government thinking little about the regions of England let alone Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland.

Nothing to do with anything, but I like the first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. She has raised the awareness of Scotland and she keeps it in the news for all the right reasons.

Oh the irony :rotfl:

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

I don't live in Scotland, in fact I don't live in the U.K.
What I know is that anyone living in North London or Birmingham has no idea what someone living in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Brussels, Munich or Paris thinks.
I wonder about some of the posters on this thread who have very strong opinions about Scotland and what Scottish people want. Have these people ever even visited Scotland. Many of them even hide where they live to avoid others making assumptions about their attitudes.
From a distance I see a London concentric British Government thinking little about the regions of England let alone Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland.

was this meant to be ironic / sarcastic?

Nothing to do with anything, but I like the first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. She has raised the awareness of Scotland and she keeps it in the news for all the right reasons.

One assumes that by the 'right reasons' you mean she wants to trick the voters of scotland to vote for independence and also wants to do as much harm as she can to the UK : similar views to yourself presumably

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

....Sturgeon seems pretty confident still at First Minsters Questions today. "I am determined to save Scotland from Brexit." ...

But tricky that.:)

The likelihood is that the UK will exit the EU in 2019. The proposed 'referendum' is not until autumn 2018. Even if the vote went the 'right way' the chances of negotiating (a) independence and (b) membership of the EU, EEA, whatever, in a time frame of less than one year are about zero.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

But tricky that.:)

The likelihood is that the UK will exit the EU in 2019. The proposed 'referendum' is not until autumn 2018. Even if the vote went the 'right way' the chances of negotiating (a) independence and (b) membership of the EU, EEA, whatever, in a time frame of less than one year are about zero.

There'll be a vote one way or the other before Scotland leaves the Single Market and it will occur before Brexit is finalised. There has also been a few nuggets thrown about like below, and talk of transitional holding pens for Scotland should a vote for independence occur.

THE political will exists to give Nicola Sturgeon more than two years to make Scotland independent, enabling the nation to remain in the EU as a sovereign state when the UK leaves, according to an influential Brussels politician.

...and that the 24-month timetable between Article 50 being triggered and the UK leaving could be extended, allowing the First Minister more time to achieve her ambition.

I've no idea how true any of the above is. We'll see after Article 50 starts things moving. I fully expect only then will the EU to make their collective position clear in the event of any Scottish independence vote. But whatever happens, it's unlikely to be a mere matter of timing which seals Scotland's ultimate path either way re the EU or the Single Market. Same as NI and Gibraltar.

I expect Sturgeon will be keeping her Scottish MEPs and the EU (unofficially) well informed regarding the Scottish Govt's future intentions. And probably vice versa after Article 50.