The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is not about gaining. Is about Article 50 pure and simple. The only legal mechanism to leave the EU, and if Scotland is a part of it by the end of it. Should Scotland vote to leave the UK, then turn to the EU and say 'as you know Scotland doesn't want to leave the EU, please remove us from any further Article 50 negotiations regarding the rUK forthwith'.

Where does that leave Scotland. In or out ?

article 50 only deals with sovereign states and not with minor regions.
the people of scotland freely chose not to be a sovereign state

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think your logic has gone a bit awol. ...

No, I think you are demonstrating your lack of logic.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...Hypothetically, if Scotland votes to leave the UK. Then says 'right, can you remove us from Article 50 talks. we didn't vote for this and don't want to leave'... then technically/legally Scotland remains in the EU. Unless the EU insists that Scotland has to go with rUK. Will they ? ...

Scotland has already voted to remain in the UK.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

....Like I said it's an unprecedented situation. But at the end of the day, Scotland won't/can't leave the EU unless it's part of Article 50. Which am fairly sure would be the first thing Sturgeon would call a halt on if there's a near future Yes vote.

As far as we know, Article 50 will be triggered by March, two years later the UK will exit the EU.

The Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the independence referendum took place almost two years later in September 2014.

Until Scotland actually becomes independent, something that might well take a few years to negotiate, Sturgeon can't call a halt to anything.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...*This is ignoring other options such as EFTA/EEA etc.

How long do you think it would take to negotiate the EFTA/EEA option? How much do you think it would cost?

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Where does that leave Scotland. In or out ?

Out..........

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

No, I think you are demonstrating your lack of logic.:)

Scotland has already voted to remain in the UK.

As far as we know, Article 50 will be triggered by March, two years later the UK will exit the EU.

The Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the independence referendum took place almost two years later in September 2014.

Until Scotland actually becomes independent, something that might well take a few years to negotiate, Sturgeon can't call a halt to anything.


How long do you think it would take to negotiate the EFTA/EEA option? How much do you think it would cost?

The legislation is going through Holyrood and is out for consultation now for another referendum in preparation.

She'll ask for another Edinburgh Agreement, but if it's not forthcoming, there will be an advisory Scottish referendum anyway. Almost certainly any such referendum would take place well before the UK leaves the EU since that's the point of having it at all at this point in time. If it's a Yes vote, Sturgeon will also almost certainly ask for Scotland to be removed immediately from UK Article 50 talks in order to negotiate solely on Scotland's future status.

The rest after that is speculation on an unprecedented situation. There's been talk of transitional holding pens etc while Scotland/rUK untangle themselves. But who knows. It's Sturgeon's and the Scottish Govt's definite preference to remain in the EU. At the end of the day though, continuous Single Market membership seems to be the main priority which is why I mentioned EFTA/EEA.

However what is clear is that if Scotland votes to leave the UK. Immediately afterwards there is no chance whatsoever, that the Scottish Govt are going to sit back for a year or so, twiddling their thumbs allowing Westminster to negotiate Scotland fully out of the EU, Single Market and all. The EU themselves might well call a halt to that too as unacceptable.

Sturgeon has requested that May responds officially to her proposals before Article 50 is triggered. If May says No, then an independence referendum goes from highly likely, to a 99.9% certainty. Unless of course May is planning to stay in the Single Market anyway.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Out..........

How can Scotland be out if not part of Article 50 or the final leaving deal though ? None of you have explained that as yet...

...waits...

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

How can Scotland be out if not part of Article 50 or the final leaving deal though ? None of you have explained that as yet...

...waits...

Scotland not being party to Article 50 isn't part of the negotiation talks.

Highly possible no final deal will be concluded within 18 months. Matters could drag on for another decade.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Scotland not being party to Article 50 isn't part of the negotiation talks.

This would be premature to presume in an untested and unprecedented situation for all concerned.

Although Article 50 TEU only prescribes the procedure for a Member State (e.g. the UK) to leave the EU, this provision can also serve to govern the withdrawal of only a part of a state (e.g. England, Wales and Northern-Ireland) and as a legal basis to keep an independent Scotland in the EU in the context of a Brexit – under the condition that there is a political consensus for this among the three parties involved (i.e. the EU, Scotland and the UK minus Scotland).

The negotiations foreseen in Article 50 TEU would then have two main aims: defining the EU’s relationship with the UK (minus Scotland) post-Brexit and adapting the terms of the UK’s EU membership to Scotland (i.e. adjusting them to Scotland’s size).

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/03/14/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

Highly possible no final deal will be concluded within 18 months. Matters could drag on for another decade.

Highly unlikely Sturgeon will hang about for a decade before doing anything. Is more likely that events for everyone re Brexit will move quite quickly once Article 50 is triggered. Ireland is also seeking assurances from Brexit talks, for events that might well take place some time in the future.

State to seek automatic EU entry for NI in event of unification

The Government is to push for a commitment that Northern Ireland will be given speedy admittance to the European Union in the event of Irish unity.
Sources have said the talks on Britain’s departure from the EU, due to begin by the end of March, must take account of the prospect of a future Border poll.
A referendum on Irish unity is allowed for in the Belfast Agreement but only if certain conditions are met...
...Government sources want this and other Ireland-specific issues settled early in the Brexit talks process to avoid them being held “hostage” when negotiations come to their tense conclusion.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-to-seek-automatic-eu-entry-for-ni-in-event-of-unification-1.2918722#.WGOs0PBaJAw.twitter

Settled early.

Thrugelmir

Irish Unity? You obviously have little understanding of more recent history.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This would be premature to presume in an untested and unprecedented situation for all concerned.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/03/14/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

Highly unlikely Sturgeon will hang about for a decade before doing anything. Is more likely that events for everyone re Brexit will move quite quickly once Article 50 is triggered. Ireland is also seeking assurances from Brexit talks, for events that might well take place some time in the future.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-to-seek-automatic-eu-entry-for-ni-in-event-of-unification-1.2918722#.WGOs0PBaJAw.twitter

Settled early.

great stuff here : given your usual distain for the nonsense in newspapers, I'm amased you even both to quote this nonsense.

much better for Nicola to tell the people of scotland the truth about Iscotland and what currency they would use, how the banks would be managed and what the socttish budget deficit would be and how itwould be funded.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Irish Unity? You obviously have little understanding of more recent history.

Missed the point entirely as well as not reading the article at all have we ?

talks on Britain’s departure from the EU, due to begin by the end of March, must take account of the prospect of a future Border poll...Government sources want this and other Ireland-specific issues settled early in the Brexit talks

Ireland specific/Scotland specific/Gibraltar specific.